Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal fight prediction, odds, undercard, start time, expert picks, preview

In 2019, Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal met in the UFC Octagon for the first fight for the ceremonial “BMF” title. On Saturday, the pair meet again, though this time in a boxing match at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

It’s a strange fight, to be sure, with two men who made their bones as fan favorites in the cage deciding to meet in the boxing ring now that neither are under UFC contract. This is the second time both men have boxed professionally, with Masvidal getting a win in 2005 and Diaz suffering a 2023 decision loss to Jake Paul.

Diaz and Masvidal have seemed disinterested in promoting the fight during a multi-city media tour, with Diaz being especially resistant to talking up the fight. That lack of hype changed a bit when the two teams engaged in a brawl at a June 6 press conference after Diaz attempted to walk out early.

Masvidal’s boxing coach Jorge Capetillo was attacked during the situation, which has left Masvidal steaming.

“Only thing I’ve ever brought to combat sports is violence and a little technique. That’s how I get my hand raised,” Masvidal said at the final press conference.

“I take every fight with the same amount of caution and respect. Whoever I’m fighting also has two hands. On a personal level, yeah I don’t like the dude for what happened at the last press conference. On July 6 he’s getting it. After that, training camp went from a boxing setting to a kill setting. That’s all I want to do.”

Masvidal thrashed Diaz in their UFC meeting, scoring a TKO via doctor’s stoppage after the third round. Those results won’t directly translate to boxing and its different ruleset but they could play into the mental games in the ring.

“I just feel like over time, I’m getting sharper. I’m always working and improving,” Diaz said at the final press conference. “I’m going to do what I always do. I’m here for the fun and I’m here for the business. I’m here to get the job done.”

Let’s take a closer look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds before getting to a prediction and pick on the main event.

Diaz vs. Masvidal fight card, odds

• Jorge Masvidal -225 vs. Nate Diaz +210, light heavyweights
• Daniel Jacobs vs. Shane Mosley Jr., super middleweights
• Amado Vargas vs. Sean Garcia, lightweights
• Chris Avila vs. Anthony Pettis, light heavyweights
• Devin Cushing vs. Manuel Correa, lightweights
• Alan Sanchez vs. Luis Lopez, welterweights
• Kenneth Lopez vs. Andres Martinez, super middleweights
• Curmel Moton vs. Nikolai Buzolin, lightweights
• Jose Aguayo vs. Bryce Logan, welterweights
• Steven Dunn vs. Gabriel Aguilar Costa, heavyweights
• Luciano Ramos vs. Dan Hernandez, junior welterweights

Viewing information

• Date: July 6 | Location: Honda Center — Anaheim, California
• Start time: 9 p.m. ET
• How to watch: DAZN PPV, PPV.com | Price: $49.99

Prediction

In most ways, it’s anyone’s guess how a fight featuring two MMA fighters will play out in the boxing ring. The most direct information we have on the boxing abilities of either man come from Diaz’s loss to Paul. Paul clearly won the fight and dropped Diaz in the fifth round, but Diaz tried to use his trademark pressure and cardio approach to throw Paul off his game. 

Diaz, never known in MMA for sheer power, didn’t appear to have a lot of sting on his punches in bigger boxing gloves. This could be to Masvidal’s advantage as the more powerful puncher. Masvidal also came to MMA through a streetfighting background and is comfortable trading hands.

While anything could happen, Masvidal is a favorite for a reason and should be a bit tighter in his game to edge out a win on the cards. Pick: Jorge Masvidal via UD