Blake Snell no-hitter: Three factors that have allowed Giants lefty to turn his 2024 season around

Blake Snell, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, threw the 17th no-hitter in San Francisco Giants history on Friday night, blanking the Cincinnati Reds in what doubled as his first ever complete game. Snell, whose career narrative includes a notorious early hook during the 2020 World Series, had previously never thrown more than 7 2/3 innings in a start — and even that outing came in August 2021.

“They can’t say it anymore. You know? Complete game, shutout, no-hitter. Leave me alone. ‘He doesn’t go into the 9th. He doesn’t go into the 8th.’ Just did it. Leave me alone,” Snell told reporters after the game.

Another brickbat that Snell has rendered obsolete? The idea that he’s been a disappointing signing. He’s all but atoned for a rough introduction to the year: through his last five starts, he’s amassed a 0.55 ERA with 31 more strikeouts than walks. Snell has held opponents to a .078/.159/.126 slash line with one home run and eight hits allowed. The Giants, predictably, have won four of those five games. 

In turn, Snell’s seasonal rate statistics are now all superior to his career averages with one notable exception: his ERA.

Just how has Snell turned his year around? Let’s touch on three factors.

1. Pitch usage tweak

Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that Snell’s fortunes started to change once he made a noticeable effort to spam the opposition with his curveball. Snell went from throwing his curve around 20% of the time through June to using it around a third of the time in July. During Friday’s start, the curveball represented 35% of his pitches.

One Neat Trick that pitchers have leaned into over the last decade has been throwing their best pitch more often, even if it’s not a fastball. It’s fair to write that Snell’s curveball has been his best offering in 2024. He’s held opponents to an .082 average against it, and has generated whiffs on 48% of the swings taken against it.

Snell’s increased emphasis on the curve has resulted in fewer changeups and him all but parking his slider. It’s hard to say those are bad calls. Snell’s changeup has allowed a .281 average and a .469 slugging this season, while his slider has fallen down his pecking order since being deployed as his primary secondary offering a few years ago.

2. Improved, altered control

Prior to July, Snell had thrown 59.5% of his pitches for strikes despite generating a 37.3% whiff rate. He had located 43.9% of his pitches in the strike zone, and had coerced chases outside of the strike zone on 28.5% of his offerings. Since the start of July, Snell has delivered 66% of his pitches for strikes. He’s missing more bats (42% whiff rate), and he’s thrown a tick more pitches within the zone (45%). The key, though, has been an improved ability to bait swings outside of the strike zone. Over his last five starts, Snell has convinced batters to expand on 36% of his offerings.

Pretend to be surprised when you read the following sentence: Snell’s curveball is adept at generating chases, ranking in the top 10 of the majors for its pitch type.

Snell is also throwing his fastball in an altered location — and getting better results for it. As pitching analyst Lance Brozdowski noted in his newsletter:

To right-handed hitters he’s moved the pitch from up and away in April/May to up and inside in July (see heatmaps below). There isn’t a change in swing-miss here, but the contact quality has improved substantially. This is a deviation from the second half of last season where his fastball moved locations but was mostly middle-away to up-away versus right-handed hitters.

Given that Snell’s arsenal largely consists of fastballs and curveballs, you can understand why more optimized deployment of those pitches has allowed him to excel.

3. Finally in a rhythm

We’d be remiss if we didn’t note that Snell’s hot streak comes at a time when he’s enjoying consistency in routine for the first time this season. 

Keep in mind that Snell endured a prolonged stay on the free-agent market. He didn’t sign until March 19, when Opening Day was fewer than 10 days off. Snell then made his season debut 20 days later, making for a truncated ramp-up period. (No amount of throwing on the side can replicate pitching in actual game conditions.)

Let’s track the rest of Snell’s season from there:

• April 23: Placed on injured list after three starts (adductor);

• May 22: Returns after missing roughly a month;

• June 2: Placed on injured list after three more starts (groin);

• July 9: Returns after missing another month — begins hot streak.

How many times have ballplayers been described as creatures of habit? As such, it’s probably not a total coincidence that Snell’s best work has coincided with his first real stretch of health and consistent in-game action.