How the Padres surged into playoff contention: What’s been working during San Diego’s second-half dominance

After a loss on July 19, the San Diego Padres were 50-50 and outside the National League playoff picture. 

As of Wednesday, the Padres are now 62-52, owners of the top wild-card spot in the NL — which would mean hosting a Wild Card Series, though that is far too close a race to worry about now. They trail the Dodgers by four games in the NL West, though the also-scorching Diamondbacks are right on their tail, a half-game behind the Padres. 

So just how did they get here?

Dominant baseball

Despite losing 7-0 in their first game after the All-Star break, the Padres are still 12-3 with a +42 run differential in the so-called second half. If we ignore that first game (which isn’t how things work, but play along), they’ve won 12 of their last 14 and have outscored opposition by 3.5 runs per game in that stretch. They’ve had three one-run wins in there, but also six games in which they won by five-plus runs. They’ve been doing it every which way, too, like comebacks (how about on July 30?), blowouts, pitchers’ duels and slugfests. 

Being able to win in any fashion is the mark of a great team. 

Beating up on good teams

The competition during this run hasn’t been easy. Sure, the Rockies and Nationals are in there, but the Padres have taken series over two first-place teams and one that has been in first a decent amount of time and still sports one of baseball’s best records. They won two of three in Cleveland (the Guardians are 35-18 at home), two of three in Baltimore (the Orioles are 34-25 at home), swept the Dodgers in two games and on Tuesday won a game in Pittsburgh over an upstart, playoff-contending Pirates team. 

This is most certainly not a run buoyed by taking six games in 10 days over the White Sox. The Padres have succeeded against high-level competition. 

Stars driving offensive surge

So far in the second half, the Padres have had a better batting average by 26 points and a better OPS by 72 points than the first. They’ve averaged 5.6 runs per game (and, remember, they scored none in their first game) after averaging 4.5 a game in the first half. 

Manny Machado has awakened. After a slow start, likely due to still recovering from offseason surgery, Machado has really picked it up. In his last 12 games, he’s hitting .347 with five doubles, four homers and nine RBI. 

Xander Bogaerts returned from an extended injury absence on July 12. Since then, he’s hit .420 with a .551 slugging percentage. 

Jurickson Profar has been an absolute rock for this team all season and deserves at least down-ballot MVP love. In 15 games since the All-Star break, he has a .993 OPS with five homers, 12 RBI and 13 runs. 

Rookie sensation Jackson Merrill has a .309 average with 10 RBI and 11 runs since the break. He’s doubled seven times in that stretch.

Cease, King lead stellar rotation

Padres starters in the second half are 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. That level of keeping runners off base is amazing. 

Dylan Cease is leading the charge. He has a no-hitter in there, of course, but it isn’t just that. Unfortunately, a weather delay held him to one inning on Tuesday night, but he has a 0.31 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings in his last five starts. 

Michael King has also stepped up to the tune of a 1.76 ERA in his last five starts, four of which have been Padres wins. 

And, hey, under-the-radar deadline acquisition Martín Pérez allowed only one run in six innings while striking out seven in his first start with the club. 

Suddenly loaded bullpen performing

Padres relievers have a 2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 67 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings since the All-Star break. All-Star closer Robert Suarez hasn’t given up a run since July 5 (and he shouldn’t have even pitched that game, but we’ll just leave that in the past). Newly acquired Jason Adam has thrown three scoreless innings. Newly acquired Tanner Scott allowed a home run in his first outing with the team, but he’s also struck out four in 2 1/3 innings and will be just fine. They have a lights-out trio at the back of this bullpen now and that’s without even mentioning the good work they’ve gotten from Yuki Matsui or Alek Jacob or Bryan Hoeing (who also came over with Scott from the Marlins). 

Help is on the way, too

We all know Fernando Tatis Jr. is capable of playing like one of the best in baseball. He’s been out since June with a stress reaction in his femur and while we’re still unsure of a timetable, surely he’ll be back. That’ll provide a boost to the already thriving offense. 

Starter Joe Musgrove is a lot closer to his return. In fact, on Tuesday, Padres manager Mike Shildt said there’s a “high probability” (via MLB.com) that Musgrove’s next start is with the big-league club. He threw 41 pitches in his rehab assignment on Sunday. When healthy, he’s a frontline starter. 

Once he’s back, the Padres rotation looks like: Cease, Musgrove, King, Matt Waldron, Pérez or Randy Vásquez. 

That fifth spot could bump back to Yu Darvish at any point too. Reports have indicated the Padres are optimistic he’ll return from personal leave (undisclosed family issue) at some point this season. 

Moving forward …

Remember how I noted earlier the Padres had been beating up on a tough schedule? It only makes sense that this would, then, be the case: The Padres have one baseball’s easiest schedules moving forward. The remaining winning percentage of their opponents currently sits at .481, which would give them the 26th-lowest strength of schedule of all 30 teams. The Diamondbacks’ schedule is the 10th-most difficult while the Dodgers rank 15th, so it’s a bit of an advantage there for the Padres within the division. 

They have three games left against each of those teams, so that could be viewed as an opportunity. Of course, an even nicer opportunity is having nine games remaining against the White Sox, Marlins and Rockies. 

SportsLine still projects the Dodgers to win the division by five games, giving the Padres a 15.5% chance at the division. FanGraphs has the Dodgers winning by five games with the Padres having a 14.5% chance at the division. PECOTA has the Dodgers by about six games and gives the Padres a 6.6% chance at the division.

So, yeah, it’s still viewed as a long shot to win the West, but it’s a much higher possibility than it was a few weeks ago. Plus, less than a month ago, the Padres weren’t even in the playoff picture. Now they are overwhelmingly favored to make the field (80.2% chance to make the playoffs, via SportsLine). 

Things are looking up in San Diego right now, that’s for sure.