UFC Fight Night prediction — Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac 2: Fight card, odds, start time, live stream

Marcin Tybura and Serghei Spivac weren’t anticipating a rematch of their February 2020 fight. Still, timing and their positions in the official UFC heavyweight rankings unite them again at UFC Fight Night on Saturday.

Tybura (25-8) significantly changed his career trajectory after beating Spivac via unanimous decision. Tybura entered the fight 1-4 but kickstarted a five-fight winning streak by nearly sweeping Spivac on the scorecards. Tybura wasn’t excited about the rematch after headlining a Fight Night against Tom Aspinall months before Aspinall became interim heavyweight champion and submitting Tai Tuivasa. Still, Tybura accepted the fight and is focused solely on parlaying a second win over Spivac into better things.

“There is nothing much to gain for me in this rematch because I won the first fight and we’re close in the rankings…” Tybura told CBS Sports. “I would love to get someone closer to the top of the division, but that’s part of the job.

“When the fight camp starts, my focus is on my opponent. I don’t regret that I took this fight. I’m not looking for any other name right now. There will be time to pick someone else after this fight.”

Spivac (16-3) also benefitted from an improved career trajectory after the first Tybura fight. Spivac was 1-2 in the UFC after the Tybura loss but subsequently embarked on a strong 6-2 run with four finishes. His only losses since the Tybura fight are to former interim heavyweight champ Ciryl Gane in a main event and Aspinall in 2021. Saturday’s headliners have improved since their first meeting even if they’re a few steps below the title level. Spivac sets out to prove that his evolution since February 2020 has been more dramatic than his opponent’s.

“I became more confident since the first time,” Spivac told CBS Sports through an interpreter. “I got older and stronger. But confidence is what’s most important.

“There isn’t a lesson I can take from the first fight. I don’t think I made too many mistakes. It’s just confidence. I don’t think I need to change much about myself. I just need to do my thing. That’s when I’m at my best.”

Tybura vs. Spivac is a painfully weak card, especially sandwiched between last week’s Fight Night headlined by Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov and Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya at UFC 305 next week. It’s the latest example of UFC’s loose three-tier event structure, where events at the UFC Apex are a downgrade relative to traveling Fight Nights and pay-per-views. Even regular viewers might struggle to spot half of this week’s main card fighters out from a crowd.

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we get to a prediction and pick on the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Aug. 10 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: UFC Apex — Las Vegas
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Marcin Tybura vs. Sergei Spivac: Both men hit their stride after their first fight, which Tybura handily won. Spivac has the advantage on paper: three times the takedown rate, twice the takedown accuracy and nearly double the stoppage rate of Tybura. Yet it was Tybura who out-wrestled and tripled Spivac’s strike total back in 2020. Spivac was only three fights into his UFC career and has noticeably improved. Most heavyweights have knockout power and are suspectable, but neither is a terrifying KO threat. I’ve long considered Tybura one of UFC’s most underappreciated heavyweights. It’s doubtful he ever challenges for the heavyweight title but he’s a solid Top 10 big man. I anticipate their second fight will be closer than the first, but I’ll lean towards Tybura getting the decision in a laborious battle. Tybura via Unanimous Decision