Guardians vs. Tigers prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 ALDS Game 1 picks, MLB playoff bets by proven model

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians open their best-of-five 2024 ALDS on Saturday. Sixth-seeded Detroit swept Houston in their Wild Card Series, while second-seeded Cleveland will be in action for the first time in the 2024 MLB playoffs after winning the AL Central title. The Tigers (86-76), who placed third in the division, are 45-38 on the road in 2024, including the playoffs. The Guardians (92-69), who have reached the postseason in six of the past nine seasons, are 50-30 on their home field. Lower seeds are 6-3 thus far in the postseason and 4-0 on the AL side of the bracket. 

First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 1:08 p.m. ET. Cleveland is a -143 favorite on the money line (risk $143 to win $100) in the latest Tigers vs. Guardians odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 6.5, down a run from the opening line. Before making any Guardians vs. Tigers picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the 2024 MLB playoffs, it’s on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Tigers vs. Guardians and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Tigers vs. Guardians: 

• Tigers vs. Guardians money line: Cleveland -143, Detroit +121
• Tigers vs. Guardians over/under: 6.5 runs
• Tigers vs. Guardians run line: Cleveland -1.5 (+150)
• DET: The Tigers have covered the run line in 51 of their last 77 games (+23.75 units)
• CLE: The Guardians have hit the game total under in 43 of their last 69 games (+18.70 units)
• Tigers vs. Guardians picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Tigers vs. Guardians streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Guardians

Cleveland is expected to send right-hander Tanner Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) to the mound. In 31 starts, he has allowed 150 hits and 44 walks, while striking out 187 in 173.2 innings of work. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any outing since Aug. 28. In a 6-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds on Sept. 24, he went seven innings, allowing just four hits, one earned run and two walks, while striking out seven. He is 1-1 in four starts against the Tigers, pitching 22 innings and allowing 19 hits, 11 earned runs and four walks with 19 strikeouts.

Helping power the offense is left fielder Steven Kwan. In 122 games this season, he batted .292 with 16 doubles, three triples, 14 homers, 44 RBI and 83 runs scored. He finished the regular season with hits in five of the last six games, including a 2-for-4 performance with a homer and two runs scored in a 5-2 win over the Cincinnati Reds. In 40 career games against the Tigers, he is batting .240 with 10 doubles, two triples, two homers and seven RBI. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Tigers

Detroit is expected to counter with left-handed pitcher Tyler Holton (7-2, 2.19 ERA), as an opener. Holton pitched in both Wild Card games at Houston, going 1.1 innings and striking out one. He appeared in 66 games this season, making nine starts. In 94.1 innings, he allowed 57 hits, 23 earned runs and 17 walks, while striking out 77. In six games against the Guardians this season, he was 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA. In 12.1 innings, he allowed eight hits with one walk and nine strikeouts.

Among the Tigers’ top hitters is left fielder Riley Greene. The third-year veteran played in 137 games and batted .262 with 27 doubles, six triples, 24 homers, 74 RBI and 82 runs scored. He doubled in Game 1 of the Wild Card series at Houston. In 10 regular-season games against Cleveland, Greene registered one double, one homer and four RBI. See which team to pick here.

How to make Guardians vs. Tigers picks