MLB predictions, picks, best bets: Mets struggle against Phillies’ Cristopher Sánchez, Shohei Ohtani stays hot

After a dud — unless you’re a Guardians fan — of a first game, the rest of the first day of divisional play in the 2024 Major League Baseball playoffs delivered. What a thrilling day of action. Speaking of action, we hit the majority of our plays here yesterday, so let’s keep the good times rolling. 

Mets at Phillies, 4:08 p.m. ET

RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Cristopher Sánchez

Some fans might’ve expected the Phillies to go with Aaron Nola in the No. 2 spot, but there’s a reason for Sánchez, the All-Star, to get the nod here. He had a 2.21 ERA at home and 5.02 ERA on the road this season. As such, the Phillies surely felt it imperative to get him the ball in Citizens Bank Park this series. 

Severino just pitched in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings while only striking out three. This came after he had a 5.63 ERA in his last three regular-season starts, 4.55 ERA in his last 11 and 5.00 in his last 15. 

Remember, though, in Game 1 of the doubleheader Monday, Game 3 of the WCS and Game 1 of the NLDS, the Mets combined for 18 runs in the eighth inning or later. This game is much more than the pitching matchup. 

The play: First five innings, Phillies in lead (-105)

I’m absolutely taking the Miracle Mets out of the equation. The Phillies don’t get to do that, but we do. 

The Phillies saw Severino twice in September and hit him pretty decently, scoring six times on eight hits in 12 innings. To get two good looks at him before seeing him again just a few weeks later at home is a nice situation for the offense.

 The Mets also saw Sánchez twice, but in his home start, he only allowed one run in seven innings. 

I just need to have the Phillies leading through five innings for this one and I love the pitching matchup for that. 

Padres at Dodgers, 8:03 p.m. ET

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Jack Flaherty

Since returning to full strength, Darvish has a 2.78 ERA and his only real problem has been the longball: he’s given up seven runs in 22 2/3 innings and five of those runs came on homers. He’s been better on the road than at home and you know he has plenty of experience in Dodger Stadium. 

Flaherty had a 3.58 ERA and 1.28 WHIP after the Dodgers acquired him at the trade deadline. He finished with a 6.43 ERA in 14 innings in his last three outings. The Padres got him for three runs on four hits and three walks in five innings in his last start of the season and they get a quick turnaround to see him again. 

The play: Shohei Ohtani over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115)

I might just ride Ohtani as long as the Dodgers are around this postseason. Maybe that’s too easy but who cares? A win is a win. We don’t get style points by picking longer shots here or anything. I just mentioned that Darvish has been touched up by the home run and the only player in baseball better at hitting it out of the ballpark than Ohtani is Aaron Judge. Ohtani hit .322/.411/.717(!) against righties in the regular season and clubbed a three-run homer off right-hander Dylan Cease in Game 1. 

And, as I mentioned before Game 1 when I played this very prop on Ohtani — though it was 1.5 and now it’s up to 2.5, correctly — he’s a top-shelf basestealing threat in front of some major talent. If he simply walks, he’s a threat to steal a base (or two) and score. He had 43 stolen bases in his last 75 regular-season games, a 162-game pace of 93 steals. 

He’ll get us home here.

Still, I want more. 

The play: Padres over 3.5 runs (-125)

I love this offense right now and I like them to get to Flaherty pretty quickly, not too dissimilar to what happened against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 1. They just saw nearly all of the Dodgers’ important bullpen arms, too.