NBA team win totals, odds: Best bets in West, including Mavs, Suns hitting the over and unders in L.A.

We covered Eastern Conference win totals earlier in the week, and while that wasn’t exactly an easy endeavor, its relatively rigid tiers at least gave us a simple starting point. We broadly know that Boston, New York and Philadelphia are going to be quite good and that Brooklyn, Detroit and Washington will be pretty bad. But in the West? Yeah… good luck with that.

There are 15 teams in the conference and at least 13 of them, for the time being, are actively trying to win. The gap between the No. 4 seed and the No. 10 seed last season was five wins. One injury at the wrong time could be the difference between a top-six playoff seed and the lottery here. In terms of actual roster quality, there just isn’t much separation between, say, the fifth- and 12th-best teams in this conference.

So as we dig through the Western Conference, keep in mind that we’re nitpicking here. When talent is (almost) a wash, things like health, age, coaching and depth mean a whole lot more than they otherwise would. So with that in mind, let’s make some over/under picks for our 15 Western Conference teams using lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

*Pythagorean Wins represent the number of games a team would be expected to win based on their point-differential

Oklahoma City Thunder

2023-24 Wins	57
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	61
2024-25 Win total line	56.5

The pick: Over 56.5

When we covered the East, I explained in detail why I’m so hesitant to take overs that get this high. Even for a team that previously got there, it is really difficult to repeat that success. It means sustaining good health. It means remaining motivated to win regular-season games when you’ve seen the greater prize that awaits in the playoffs. It means getting more out of your young players than you lose as your older ones age. It means being great and lucky, and that’s not always realistic for even the best of teams. That’s why I took Boston’s under.

But I have no reservations whatsoever about Oklahoma City’s over. The Celtics may be the superior playoff team. The Thunder are the NBA’s best regular-season group. They were just the NBA’s youngest-ever No. 1 seed and nobody on their roster is older than 30. It stands to reason that they will gain more than they lose through the aging process. Injuries might hit them, but they have redundancies in just about every slot. Lose Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein can play more. Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace can all simulate one another. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot-creation isn’t so easily replicated, but no team can sustain the loss of an MVP candidate. At least the Thunder have the assets to trade for more help if the need arises.

The Thunder ranked third on offense last season. They might dip slightly as a response to the loss of Josh Giddey’s secondary creation. Any minimal offensive losses will be covered on defense. The Thunder ranked fourth last season and turned their worst defender into Hartenstein and Caruso, who ranked second and fifth in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus last season. Oklahoma City could have one of the greatest regular-season defenses in NBA history. They have among the NBA’s best coaches and front offices. Hartenstein solved their rebounding problem, and that might have been their only significant problem last season. Short of significant injury, there just isn’t a compelling reason to bet against the Thunder. I even consider their best overall record odds (+350) to be great value.

Minnesota Timberwolves

2023-24 Wins	56
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	59
2024-25 Win total line	52.5

The pick: Under 52.5

There are compelling arguments in favor of the long-term necessity of trading Karl-Anthony Towns. It was a financial necessity at the very least. But it’s probably going to cost the Timberwolves some regular-season games while they figure out what exactly this team is going to look like without its four-time All-Star.

The Timberwolves plan to start Julius Randle in Towns’ place and continue to bring Naz Reid off of the bench, at least to open the season. Randle is the more accomplished player, but starting him doesn’t really make basketball sense. Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley handle the bulk of the shot-creation within that starting lineup. Randle’s creation, while welcome, isn’t as additive as it would be off of the bench. Those bench minutes are when they need extra creation, as the Timberwolves really struggled to score whenever Edwards or Conley sat last season. Reid’s shooting, on the other hand, is more valuable alongside Edwards and Conley. It enhances their creation by spacing the floor. Randle doesn’t do that. In deferring to Randle’s heftier resume, the Timberwolves are ignoring what already worked a season ago. It’s going to cost them wins early on. Maybe they’ll figure it out by the time the season ends, but moving Randle to the bench in a contract year could create locker room issues. There’s no telling what kind of trade value he has right now. Essentially, there is no perfect solution.

If this trade happened in July the Timberwolves might be slightly better equipped to handle all of this. Instead, they’re figuring it out on the fly. There are certainly scenarios in which it can work. Depth is now a real plus for the Timberwolves. In Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Donte DiVincenzo, they are one of the only teams in the NBA that can boast three obvious starter-level players on its bench. The best-case outcomes here likely lean towards Minnesota figuring this out in time for the postseason, but not early enough to keep winning at the rate of a top seed.

Denver Nuggets

2023-24 Wins	57
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	56
2024-25 Win total line	51.5

The pick: Under 51.5

Picking against Nikola Jokic is historically unwise. He has played nine NBA seasons and hit the over in eight of them. In 2022, he won 48 games despite getting only 265 combined minutes out of his two most decorated teammates: Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. It’s not just that Jokic is the NBA’s best player. It’s that his production is by far the most stable of any superstar in the league. He never gets hurt. How could, he barely runs or jumps? His shot-profile is relatively low-variance. He can’t force his teammates to make their shots, but he can create better ones for them than anyone else. He creates such a high baseline that, most of the time, it’s foolish to pick against him in any regular-season setting.

But just about everything that came out of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s offseason should be unnerving for over bettors. Obviously, his actual on-court loss is going to hit Denver hard. The Nuggets have had the league’s best starting lineup since his arrival two years ago. That lineup is now worse with Christian Braun in his place, but the bench is also now worse with Braun promoted. No team attempted fewer 3-pointers than Denver last season and Caldwell-Pope took the third-most long-range attempts on the team. Introducing Russell Westbrook to a roster that loses games from deep is… concerning. The front office’s insistence on relying on younger players like Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson is also concerning, though their upside is considerable.

And then there’s the quote Caldwell-Pope gave after Denver lost. “You know how, towards the playoffs, guys get their rest, but I feel like that’s where we spent most of our energy at times, trying to get that first place [spot in the West],” Caldwell-Pope told Draymond Green in a July appearance on The Draymond Green Show. “Playing catch-up. And then, we get to the playoffs, we have no gas.” It seems unlikely that Denver pushes as hard in the regular season as it used to. The roster is far less proven than it was a year ago. Three of the eight core players from the championship team—Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown and Jeff Green—are gone. Jamal Murray looked injured in the Olympics. Put all of that together and I’m reluctantly forced to take the under.

Dallas Mavericks

2023-24 Wins	50
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	47
2024-25 Win total line	49.5

The pick: Over 49.5

I can’t explain this line. Dallas beat it last season despite spending 34 combined games without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and drastically remaking the roster in February. They’ll have a full season with P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford this time around. Dereck Lively is no longer a rookie, and if the playoffs were any indication, he’s rapidly moving toward stardom. Their offseason changes were generally positives. Klay Thompson, even in his declining state, is far more valuable than Tim Hardaway Jr. today. Naji Marshall isn’t quite as versatile defensively as Derrick Jones Jr., but he’s close and makes up for the difference by being a superior shooter. Quentin Grimes at his best was far better than Josh Green at his, and Dallas should put Grimes in position to be his best.

I suppose the argument for an under would rely on significant defensive regression. Dallas had the NBA‘s best defense over the last month of the season and ranked sixth after the trade deadline. Starting Klay Thompson in place of Jones will make the defense worse. But one of two things will happen as a result. Either the offensive gains will be so considerable that it will be worthwhile, or they won’t, at which point Dallas can make the switch from Thompson to Marshall if it proves necessary. We’re not talking about Oklahoma City’s 56.5-win line here. Dallas started last season at a relatively pedestrian 26-22 and still managed to reach 50 wins. Either things will go right, or they’ll go wrong quickly enough for the Mavericks to course-correct. Either way, this is one of my favorite picks on the board. 

Memphis Grizzlies

2023-24 Wins	27
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	23
2024-25 Win total line	47.5

The pick: Over 47.5

The Grizzlies won 56 games during the 2021-22 season despite getting only 57 games out of Ja Morant. They won 51 a year later despite Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. combining to miss 40 games. Last season, they won 27 in large part because they only got nine games out of Morant. The trend here is relatively straightforward. The Grizzlies don’t necessarily need 80 games out of Morant. They’re typically quite good as long as he plays more games than he misses.

The loss of Tyus Jones in the 2023 offseason is notable here. Memphis sustained those briefer Morant absences in part because they had a starting-level point guard on their bench. But the whole idea of trading for Marcus Smart was getting a player who could replace both Jones and Dillon Brooks. He is a viable wing-stopper and backup point guard. Is the bench quite as good on balance as it was a few years ago? Probably not, but remember, the Grizzlies just had a whole wasted season to develop youth. That is going to bear fruit this season. GG Jackson, Vince Williams and Scotty Pippen Jr. are real players. The theory behind drafting Zach Edey was that he could replicate Jonas Valanciunas‘ interior scoring and Steven Adams‘ offensive-rebounding. This is a deceptively deep and versatile group.

There isn’t quite the same degree of certainty that those recent Grizzlies teams had. Edey is a rookie. Valanciunas and Adams were veterans. Smart is one player. Brooks and Jones were two. Having Morant, Jackson and Desmond Bane on cheap rookie deals allowed the Grizzlies to pay for depth elsewhere, but now the reverse is true. The depth is cheap. Morant, Jackson and Bane are expensive, but they’re worth it. All three should be rounding into their primes now, and considering how much regular-season winning they did in their youth, they’re likely to keep winning at their peaks.

Phoenix Suns

2023-24 Wins	49
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	50
2024-25 Win total line	47.5

The pick: Over 47.5

Truthfully, I’d probably toy with higher-upside Suns plays than the over if I were inclined to bet them. You need them to stay healthy to chase this number, but if they stay healthy, I’d rather adjust the line to +140 on a “Suns to win 50 or more games” bet, or potentially even take them to win the Pacific Division at +175. If the Suns are healthy they are going to be very good. This line represents a middle-ground “sort of healthy” outcome. There isn’t really a middle ground here. They’ll be very good or they’ll be hurt and slip to the Play-In Tournament or lottery.

I lean towards the former. Mike Budenholzer teams grab the low-hanging regular-season fruit. They take the right shots and protect the basket and win on the glass. His teams tend to vastly outperform expectations early on. The 2014-15 Hawks beat their win-total line by 17.5 games. The 2018-19 Bucks went 12 wins over their expectation in his debut in Milwaukee, and they were on pace to win 67 games in their follow-up before COVID-19 stopped the season. Budenholzer is a turnaround expert. He’s well-suited to this team’s health issues given his well-known tendency to limit the minutes his starters play.

The roster changes were subtle but significant. There are point guards here now! Remember how important Jones was to Memphis? Now he’s a Sun earning pennies to make life easier for the superstars. Don’t sleep on rookie Ryan Dunn, a defensive star in the making who’s quietly made his 3-pointers so far this preseason. If he does so in the regular season, he’s going to be essential for Phoenix. The Suns aren’t quite the Bucks. They aren’t the perfect roster for Budenholzer’s style. But the disciplined reforms he’s going to introduce will be beneficial enough here for the Suns to win around 50 games… provided they stay healthy.

Sacramento Kings

2023-24 Wins	46
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	46
2024-25 Win total line	47.5

The pick: Under 47.5

I’m just going to bullet-point the reasons I’m not a Kings believer because there are a lot of them:

• I have very little faith in the defense. Mike Brown is a good defensive coach, but the roster has only two real positives on that end of the floor: Keon Ellis and Keegan Murray. Building a worthwhile defense without a viable rim-protector is extremely difficult. These aren’t the Knicks. They’re not going to be able to compensate with stellar point-of-attack work or overall team size.
• Sacramento’s starting lineup of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes and Murray has missed only 54 combined games over the past two seasons, and almost half of them were missed by Huerter, their least important starter. That degree of health and continuity is not sustainable.
• The Kings outperformed expectations in 2023 in part by winning a lot of close games. They ranked fourth in the NBA in clutch net rating. They regressed to 12th last season, but hope the addition of DeMar DeRozan corrects that. The problem here is that clutch performance is notoriously volatile on a year-to-year basis. The Kings experienced that last season, but DeRozan has experienced that as well. His Bulls ranked second a year ago, but 16th the year before that. The DeRozan-Fox combo is a great end-of-game weapon on paper. In reality, you really can’t rely on being a great clutch team to stack wins.
• The Fox-DeRozan duo is somewhat redundant offensively. DeRozan doesn’t shoot 3s. Fox does, and he’s improved quite a bit in that respect, but unless last season’s improvement in both volume and efficiency sustains, it can’t really be described as a strength of his. The Kings want Sabonis taking more 3s, but he’s never really done it at a meaningful volume. There’s plenty of shooting elsewhere on the team, but if the theory of your team as any sort of contender relies on having a top-five offense, you’re fighting an uphill battle when you’re not guaranteed plus-shooting out of any of your three primary ball-handlers. Meanwhile, DeRozan led the NBA in mid-range jumpers last season and Fox ranked 23rd. They already slipped from sixth in 3-point attempts to 21st last season. It’s hard to see them improving their shot diet.
• DeRozan is 35. The issues we’ve covered assume that he is largely the same player this season that he was last. Eventually, though, it’s reasonable to guess that he’s going to decline with age. There are candidates to improve with age, with Murray being the prime example, but the Kings haven’t exactly positioned him to do so. How many on-ball reps is he going to get on a roster with Fox, Sabonis, DeRozan and Malik Monk? Asking him to serve primarily as a spacer that can attack closeouts seems a tad wasteful of his considerable potential.

There’s talent here. The whole is far less than the sum of its parts. DeRozan is an awkward fit with Fox in the starting lineup, and while extra creation is nice, they had already paid Malik Monk quite a bit to provide it off of the bench. If Sacramento was going to invest in a meaningful addition this offseason, it would have served them better to pay a bit extra for a two-way forward than an aging scorer.

New Orleans Pelicans

2023-24 Wins	49
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	54
2024-25 Win total line	47.5

The pick: Over 47.5

The Pelicans, like the Suns, are more of an upside play than an over-under play. I’d stay away from division odds because of how scary the Mavericks and Grizzlies could be, but isolated upside plays like 50 or more wins at +210 or Willie Green Coach of the Year at +1500 make plenty of sense to me. If Zion Williamson is healthy, this team is going to be great. During the period between C.J. McCollum’s early season injury and Brandon Ingram‘s late-season injury, they had the NBA‘s third-best net rating last season. If Williamson gets hurt, like he so frequently does? Obviously the Pelicans are far worse. I’m not especially interested in middle grounds here.

The obvious question here is center. The Pelicans don’t have one, unless you’re a whole lot higher on Daniel Theis than the rest of the basketball world. That’s a playoff problem. This is the ultimate “the regular season is about strengths and the playoffs are about weaknesses” roster. Think of what Williamson could be capable of on a roster without Williamson clogging the lane. Hell, think of how much easier life will be for the perimeter creators like McCollum, Ingram and Dejounte Murray. Nobody has enough defenders for all of them. The defense has issues, but the obvious benefit of having so many like-sized players is the switching it enables. Teams with the personnel to consistently switch tend to do well defensively. Teams that employ Herb Jones would have a hard time not doing well defensively.

I wouldn’t fault anyone for marking the Pelicans as a permanent stay-away given Williamson’s health. If you’re going to play this team, the ways to do so are probably to assume the extremes. Think he stays healthy? Look into his MVP odds, which are available at +10000 at certain books. Think he won’t? Why take a minus-money under bet when you can get +125 on the Pelicans to be a Play-In team or even +140 to miss the playoffs? The Pelicans are winning 50 or more or they’re winning 45 or less. The line is smack dab in the middle, so I’d ignore it.

Golden State Warriors

2023-24 Wins	46
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	48
2024-25 Win total line	44.5

The pick: Under 44.5

You could argue that, despite the big-name losses they sustained, the Warriors are better on paper today than they were last spring. Buddy Hield, by practically any statistical measure, has been a better shooter than post-injuries Klay Thompson. De’Anthony Melton is a starting-caliber 3-and-D guard. If you think Thompson was above such distinction, the Warriors haven’t had one of those in awhile. He’s a nice balance between the defensive extreme of Gary Payton II and the offensive extreme of Hield. Kyle Anderson was put on this Earth to play for Steve Kerr.

What I can’t shake is the idea that this team is a house of cards on both ends of the floor. Stephen Curry missed only eight games last season, but he missed 44 combined in the previous two. Who is going to create shots if he misses time? There’s no Chris Paul this season, and as much as he’s become a laughingstock now, Jordan Poole was at one time a very valuable secondary creator. The defense works because it has Draymond Green. There’s no traditional rim-protector here, and the personnel isn’t nearly as switchy as it was when Andre Igudoala, Kevin Durant and peak-Thompson were around. What happens if Green gets himself suspended again? He’s 34. Curry is 36. This team makes sense for how the supporting pieces can play around the two of them. Remove either and the end of the floor they command collapses like a Jenga tower. For that reason, I’m inclined to take their under. 

Houston Rockets

2023-24 Wins	41
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	44
2024-25 Win total line	43.5

The pick: Over 43.5

The Warriors are an under because of how reliant they are on one, single player. The Rockets are an over because of how little they rely on any single player. In the long run, that’s a problem they need to solve. There are seven different former first-round picks on the roster that could reasonably claim to be a part of the long-term core. You can’t pay all of those guys. But they’re here for now, and that gives the Rockets a ton of insurance.

Houston’s offense last season was built around Alperen Sengun. Then he got hurt and they finished the season on a 12-6 tear with Jalen Green taking the reins and Amen Thompson playing center on offense. Sengun’s presence hurts the Houston defense in the same ways Sabonis limits Sacramento’s ceiling, but the Rockets have far more to work with than Sacramento does. Dillon Brooks is a better defender than any King. Thompson has the tools to be a defensive star. So does Jabari Smith. Fred VanVleet is somewhat limited by his size, but he’s an above-average point guard defender at the very least. The Rockets were a top-10 defense a season ago. That is likely replicable given the likely improvements coming from the youngsters.

If a star becomes available during the season, Houston is at the front of the line to trade for him. When you combine assets, current roster, financial outlook and viability of the roster, there might not be a team in all of basketball more primed for a win-now trade. The Rockets took a meaningful step last year. They want to take a bigger one this year, and they have the talent to do so.

Los Angeles Lakers

2023-24 Wins	48
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	43
2024-25 Win total line	43.5

The pick: Under 43.5

The Lakers are eerily similar to the Warriors for our purposes. There are real reasons to believe they can be better this season. JJ Redick will probably be an upgrade over Darvin Ham because, well, a lot of what Darvin Ham did last season was inexplicable. It shouldn’t have taken until mid-season to put their five best players on the floor together. Ham had clearly lost the locker room last season. The admittedly tiny preseason sample on Redick thus far has been promising. 

But like the Warriors, the Lakers are extremely dependent on two players. Last season, LeBron James and Anthony Davis combined to miss only 17 games. In the three previous seasons, they averaged more than 60. James is about to turn 40. Davis is firmly in his 30s now. The Lakers are 50-72 without James since his 2018 arrival and are 55-64 without Davis since he came in 2019. What is this team without either of them? The defense without Davis is certainly a lost cause. With Jarred Vanderbilt still injured, Davis’ rim-protection is the only consistent positive the Lakers have on that end of the floor. In theory, the offense should be better-equipped to sustain a James absence. Austin Reaves is ready for greater on-ball responsibilities, and D’Angelo Russell is nothing if not a regular-season innings eater. But the offense slipped by almost nine points per 100 possessions whenever James sat last season.

The Lakers outperformed their point-differential pretty meaningfully last season. The success they had with Rui Hachimura in the starting lineup was a bit of a mirage. It’s still not clear how they plan to defend the point of attack. Their only offseason additions were rookies. Dalton Knecht might help. Bronny James probably won’t. The Lakers have done little to suggest that they are willing to invest the draft capital necessary to fix this roster’s problems. The offseason messaging has been about player-development and life after James, not winning while he’s still here. Barring another surprisingly healthy season out of the stars, this is probably going to be more of a transitional year than a winning one.

Los Angeles Clippers

2023-24 Wins	51
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	51
2024-25 Win total line	38.5

The pick: Under 38.5

This is my favorite pick in the conference. There are two viable shot-creators on the entire roster. One is a 35-year-old James Harden, who has already experienced meaningful decline in just about every offensive statistical category. He was great early in his Clippers tenure. He shot 39-30-88 after the All-Star Break. The other is Kawhi Leonard, whose health remains as mysterious as ever. He was day-to-day in the weeks leading up to the playoffs and then proceeded to play in two playoff games. He was supposed to play for Team USA, but hadn’t recovered enough to do so even with three months off following the playoffs. Training camp has arrived and sure enough, he’s still not quite right. He is still one of the 10 best players in the NBA when healthy. “When he’s healthy” is getting rarer and rarer these days.

Norm Powell is the only other offensive player here remotely capable of creating advantages. The offseason was focused on bringing in defenders to fill in for Paul George. Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn and Nic Batum will help in that respect. They’re also replacing Paul George, who may not be quite the defender he was at his peak, but is still quite good. The Clippers were a below-average defense last season. Even if they’re better, a top-10 finish feels like a stretch barring unforeseeably strong health.

There’s very little upside here. They won 51 games last season with George. Their best-case scenarios probably aren’t that far above their line. But their downsides? There are worlds in which this is one of the worst teams in the Western Conference based on Leonard’s health and Harden’s age alone. Take the under. If they start out hot with a healthier Leonard and a surprisingly strong defense, there will be opportunities mid-season to take even higher unders. I’d support betting against the Clippers in almost any available way.

San Antonio Spurs

2023-24 Wins	22
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	23
2024-25 Win total line	36.5

The pick: Under 36.5

The players San Antonio added this summer are going to pay long-term dividends. Just ask Shai Gilgeous-Alexander what a year at Chris Paul’s finishing school for aspiring superstars can do for the right player. Harrison Barnes is the quintessential well-respected veteran and locker room presence. They know what to do and where to be. A lot of the younger players that got minutes in San Antonio last season didn’t. There’s going to be a layer of professionalism here that was at lacking early last season.

But this line is asking for a 15-win improvement. That’s a really big number in a conference this deep. Only two teams jumped by 15 wins last season: Houston and Oklahoma City. You could argue that San Antonio’s theoretical improvement would be in the same vein as Houston’s a year ago, going from the bottom of the standings to the Play-In race thanks to sizable improvement from their young players. But Houston added two high-level starters in Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet, and the Rockets improved significantly at head coach by replacing Stephen Silas with Ime Udoka. The Spurs did none of that. They have the same coach. Paul and Barnes are great role models. They’re not great players, at least not anymore. Paul’s age finally seemed to catch up to him last season.

The Spurs were reasonably good when Tre Jones and Victor Wembanyama shared the court last season. How much does that happen with Paul in place and presumably starting? How many minutes do the Spurs give to important developmental projects? Stephon Castle can’t shoot yet. He’s going to cramp the offense until that changes. San Antonio’s future remains as bright as anyone’s in all of basketball, but the Spurs are slow-playing this. There’s no need to rush. A 32-win season will suit them just fine.

Utah Jazz

2023-24 Wins	31
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	28
2024-25 Win total line	28.5

The pick: Over 28.5

The Jazz were playing at a 40-win pace through the end of January last season. They were playing at a 41-win pace at the end of January in 2023. They obviously didn’t win 40 games in either of those seasons because Danny Ainge kneecapped them through trades. At the 2023 and 2024 trade deadlines, Ainge dealt Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Kelly Olynyk, Simone Fontecchio and Ochai Agbaji at the last two deadlines. Lauri Markkanen has played 13 total games in March and April of the last season. It’s a pretty transparent strategy: let things play out naturally early on, then tank as hard as humanly possible in the last two months.

The problem with doing that, at least for our purposes, is that the Jazz are just running out of players to trade. Markkanen legally can’t be dealt this season. John Collins is too expensive for any winner to pursue. Jordan Clarkson‘s archetype has fallen out of favor among contenders, who prefer all of their role players to defend and make 3’s. Clarkson does neither especially well. Walker Kessler has seemingly been on the block all summer, and Collin Sexton could certainly help a winner, but most of Utah’s rotation this season is going to be built around young players it wants to keep. They’re not going to give away Keyonte George or Taylor Hendricks for the sake of a tank, especially when the West is good enough for them to lose games organically.

The early season formula of the last two seasons has been All-Star-caliber play out of Markkanen and superb coaching from Will Hardy. Both factors are still in play. Those early season trends appear likelier to sustain than their late-season counterparts. The Jazz are hardly a playoff team yet, but as long as Markkanen and Hardy are here, they’re not a doormat either.

Portland Trail Blazers

2023-24 Wins	21
2023-24 Pythagorean Wins	17
2024-25 Win total line	21.5

The pick: Under 21.5

In truth, the Blazers haven’t embraced that reality as firmly as they should. Why is Jerami Grant still on this team? His contract is only going to get less tradable as he ages, and he’s going to win them games they don’t want to win. There are a number of veterans here that, all things being equal, they’d probably be better off moving. Deandre Ayton‘s contract is too big to be traded, but he’s just keeping Donovan Clingan‘s seat warm. Anfernee Simons might be doing the same for Shaedon Sharpe long-term, but he’s young enough and promising enough to hang onto for now.

There’s hopefully a deadline sell-off coming here. If there is, this team has the potential to treat the second half of the season like the Jazz have lately. The difference is that the Blazers of the past few years haven’t come close to matching what Utah has done in the first half of those seasons. Scoot Henderson is coming off of a very disappointing rookie season, and he’s going to have the ball quite a bit as the Blazers try to figure out how much of that season was real and how much can be fixed. Clingan has considerable defensive upside. There’s no telling what he can be on offense. Chauncey Billups is not Will Hardy.

The under here is the pick largely based on a very simple principle: somebody has to finish last. Portland is the only team we can reliably say is trying to lose. Even Utah tried to trade for Jrue Holiday and Mikal Bridges over the past year or so. The Blazers are neck deep in a rebuild. They’re not handling it as well as they could be, but they’re definitely still there. They’re the worst team in a great conference even if they’re better than the worst team in most conferences. They’ll be a competitive 21-win team, but a 21-win team nonetheless.