Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight predictions: Five reasons why ‘Iron Mike’ could be victorious on Friday night

For the first time since 2005, former undisputed heavyweight champion Mike Tyson will lace up the gloves for a sanctioned boxing match when the Hall of Famer takes on Jake Paul in an eight-round fight on Friday that will air globally on Netflix. 

A fight of this nature doesn’t come without concerns, however, as Tyson (50-6, 44 KOs) is 58 and will be facing an active professional fighter in the form of the 27-year-old Paul (10-1, 7 KOs) who has transitioned successfully from YouTube and acting fame to become the face of boxing’s crossover celebrity bubble. 

Tyson may be far removed from his prime days as a fighter yet he’s only a slight betting underdog against an opponent who is 31 years his junior, which means he must have something close (if not more) to a puncher’s chance of winning, right? 

Let’s take a closer look at five reasons why a Tyson victory isn’t entirely out of the question entering this weekend at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. 

Caesars Sportsbook has odds for every aspect of Tyson vs. Paul as well as the undercard on Friday. Check out the latest Caesars promo to get in on the action.

1. Mike Tyson went 8 hard rounds with Roy Jones Jr. in 2020

Yes, that was four years ago at this point. But let’s be honest, how many of us were blown away at just how great a 54-year-old Tyson looked when he, after years of saying he never would, made an ambitious return to the boxing ring. It may have been an exhibition match between two aging Hall of Famers, but Tyson was in explosively good shape for his age and largely shocked the boxing world by how much stamina he showed in going the eight-round distance. The fight, which was produced by Triller and sold an incredible 1.6 million pay-per-view buys, was ultimately ruled a split draw even though Tyson largely dominated the action. In fact, Jones would comment in the ensuing years at how much he was amazed not just with Tyson’s punching power but how strong his defense was as Jones was unable to consistently hit him clean. Yes, we are still talking about a 58-year-old man on Friday fighting someone like Paul who is still within their physical prime. And, without question, there are many ways this event goes very poorly for Tyson simply because of that fact. But Tyson simply isn’t your average person who is pushing 60. “Iron Mike” is in exceptional shape and proved during the pandemic that there’s still something left under the hood. If it wasn’t for that 2020 fight as tangible footage, the Paul fight would have likely never been sanctioned. 

2. The rules could go a long way in keeping Tyson in the fight

As far as anyone connected to the event is concerned, Tyson-Paul will not be a scripted pro wrestling match or a merciful sparring session. Both fighters have committed publicly to the idea that this will be a very real fight. But to get the event sanctioned, even with an alarmingly liberal state athletic commission like Texas, some concessions on the rules needed to be made in order for Tyson to try and bridge the age gap. This eight-round bout will be contested using 14-ounce gloves, as opposed to the traditional 10 ounces (for 154 pounds and up) or 8 ounces (for welterweight and below). The rounds will also be two minutes in length as opposed to three, which should allow Tyson an ability to fight at a faster pace knowing that a 60-second break is right around the corner. Even though the heavier gloves might play a role in diluting some of Tyson’s explosive power, too, the change in ruleset might go a long way in building a foundation for an upset to be possible.  

3. Jake Paul is still very much a novice boxer

While there has been plenty of debate as to whether this fight should even take place given Tyson’s age, no one is debating who will hold the experience edge in this fight. In fact, Paul’s business partner with MVP Promotions, Nikisa Bidarian, has rightfully surmised that Tyson’s age is actually the only reason why the fight is even happening since it’s the only aspect of the fight that gives Paul an equal shot at victory. Paul’s ambition and work ethic deserve to be respected as he transitioned from the entertainment world to boxing and has very much taken it seriously. But this is a boxer who never had a single amateur fight and whose best boxing win came against 47-year-old former UFC star Anderson Silva. Paul might be the best boxer of the current celebrity crossover era, but he has been far from battle tested after scoring 10 victories over a mixture of washed up MMA fighters, celebrities and journeymen boxers. The one time Paul boxed against a contemporary with similar size and experience, he lost by split decision to Tommy Fury, the reality TV star and half-brother of former heavyweight champion Tyson Fury. The majority of Paul’s wins have come against novice, aging boxers who were naturally multiple weight divisions smaller than him.

4. Tyson’s peek-a-boo style is difficult to defend

Yes, even at 58, Tyson appears to have retained a frightening amount of speed and explosiveness behind the patented fighting style once taught to him by his late mentor Cus D’Amato, who trained a trio of Hall of Fame boxers (Tyson, Floyd Patterson, Jose Torres). The obvious question, of course, will become how long can Tyson remain explosive once fatigue and punch damage begin to accrue on his aging body. But before that point comes, Tyson will be very much considered a live dog and knockout threat in the early going. A huge part of that is his deceptive style of ducking forward behind his high guard and exploding with powerful combinations of fight-ending hooks. Even if Paul uses his muscular, 6-foot-1 frame to tie him up when he gets close, Tyson doesn’t need much space to uncork the kind of uppercuts that could be a problem for Paul. Given the remedial tools and poor technique of the boxers Paul has defeated, it’s safe to imagine there being a necessary adjustment time for Paul to try and deal with Tyson’s bob-and-weave approach.

5. ‘He’s a manufactured killer … I’m a natural-born killer’

It’s the above quote that has been shared on social media in droves since it first aired on Netflix’s pre-fight documentary series. Tyson was seated on a couch watching a television set that aired Paul’s interview after defeating BKFC star Mike Perry in July. Without an ounce of hesitation after hearing Paul declare he was set to take Tyson’s throne, “Iron Mike” casually chuckled before delivering the coldest sentence imaginable about “the fundamental difference between me and Jake,” pointing out that Paul’s supposed badass aura was created by “television and papers.” It’s a quote that’s also a stark reminder about exactly who Tyson is and where he came from. Tyson may have spent the past couple of decades becoming a lovable celebrity who was once among the most feared men on the planet. But that guy is still in him: the young boy who robbed people for money as a wayward teen in the Brownsville section of Brooklyn and the disgraced former champion who once did prison time for rape and went on to bite a chunk of Holyfield’s ear off during their infamous 1997 rematch. By age 20, Paul was acting on the Disney Channel series “Bizaardvark” after gaining viral acclaim on Vine and YouTube. Tyson, meanwhile, at age 20, had already become the youngest heavyweight champion in boxing history. He may now be 58, but he’s meaner than Paul, hits harder and has endured the kind of upbringing and backstory that few people survive. When handicapping a fight as weird as this, Tyson’s backstory and who he still is deep inside needs to be accounted for.

Who wins Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul on November 15, and which Paul vs. Tyson props should you be all over? Visit SportsLine now to see Brandon Wise’s best bets for the Nov. 15 bout, all from the CBS combat sports specialist who just called Paul’s first-round win in March, and find out.