UFC in 2025: Jon Jones, Conor McGregor and Dana White among five biggest storylines to watch this year

The new year is upon us in the sport of mixed martial arts with no shortage of big events on the calendar in the short term for industry leader UFC. 

But as the calendar flips to 2025 ahead of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night return in Las Vegas, just one week out from a must-see UFC 311 pay-per-view event in Los Angeles, it’s time to look ahead to some of the big-picture storylines surrounding the promotion and its biggest names. 

Let’s take a closer look at what to watch for. 

1. Show him the money: It’s time for UFC to pay Jon Jones what he’s worth

Since he first debuted in the Octagon some 16 years ago, it’s not as if Jones’ tenure within UFC has come without legal issue or controversy, including Jones being stripped of UFC titles a record three times for disciplinary reasons. Yet, the two-division champion is still among the best fighters and biggest draws in the sport at 37 and is as close as any MMA fighter has come to gaining universal acclaim as the best fighter in the sport’s history. Now that Jones has not only captured the UFC heavyweight title but defended it in November after rehabbing a training injury for 11 months, the biggest fight the promotion could make in 2025 remains a title unification bout between Jones and interim champion Tom Aspinall. The fight sells itself and has the potential to be a truly historic and generational event, especially if CEO Dana White would drop his dislike for stadium fights and allow the fight to truly transcend the sport. The only thing preventing the bout from taking place previously has been Jones, who disparaged Aspinall’s commercial value at every turn publicly while benefitting from UFC’s insistence on first making a Jones-Stipe Miocic fight that was many years past its relevancy. 

Those who truly understand the business aspects of MMA, however, have started to believe that the fear and disinterest Jones has shown is really a public negotiation tactic to extract the kind of one-night payday his resumé deserves (and one UFC has avoided by keeping fighter pay down). Jones, if you recall, sat out for three years beginning in 2020 under the demand that he deserves what he called “Deontay Wilder money” (or $30 million per bout) after the former boxing heavyweight champion routinely secured huge purses for his title trilogy against Tyson Fury. And UFC commentator Joe Rogan made headlines this week by announcing that Jones had demanded the same $30 million price tag for the Aspinall fight (which Rogan then publicly retracted when White contacted him and told him “that rumor is bullshit”). But if any fighter deserves the type of payout that could change precedents within the promotion, it’s Jones who is virtually undefeated save for a 2009 disqualification loss to Matt Hamill (that would be legal today given the 2024 rule change regarding 12-to-6 elbow strikes). Not only could UFC easily afford the purse following record year-over-year financial success, White’s relationship with Saudi Arabian adviser Turki Alalshkih, who sponsored and funded UFC 306 at Las Vegas’ The Sphere in September, could be the missing link should parent company TKO balk at the price. It all comes down to how badly UFC really wants it.

2. Will Conor McGregor step foot inside the Octagon? 

On one hand, McGregor is the richest and most famous MMA fighter that UFC has ever promoted and the sport has ever known. On the other hand, he’s 36, was recently found liable in a much-publicized civil trial for rape that led to a loss of sponsors and hasn’t fought in UFC since 2021. McGregor also pulled out of a scheduled return last June to headline International Fight Week due to a broken toe that only extended the never-ending, multi-year build to a Michael Chandler fight that comically may never see the light of day. Referring to the current version of McGregor as anything close to dependable, especially given his insatiable appetite for partying in recent years, would be simply untrue. Yet, White, who has constantly moved the goal posts regarding McGregor’s possible UFC return, still maintains MMA fans will see “The Notorious” by the end of 2025. Whether that’s true remains to be seen. McGregor has lost three of his last four bouts, hasn’t fought since breaking his leg against Dustin Poirier in their trilogy and has just one victory in the last nine years (a 40-second TKO in 2020 of Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, who was in the midst of a seven-fight winless streak to end his career). 

McGregor’s UFC return would already be highly questionable for the reasons shared above. But recent rumors of a boxing match against either Jake Paul or his older brother Logan continue to linger following reports that a billionaire Indian family is looking to pay upwards of $500 million to try and reproduce the same spectacle Jake Paul and Mike Tyson delivered in November. Provided the rumors related to this event are actually true, UFC (and parent company TKO Group) would need to make a similar decision to that of when McGregor boxed Floyd Mayweather in their 2017 superfight: Either support McGregor and cash in huge as a co-promoter given the ungodly amount of money at play or spend time and cash attempting to legally block McGregor from competing outside of his UFC deal. Either way, the odds of McGregor competing in MMA during the new year continue to dwindle along with his commitment and public reputation.  

3. How much more will the UFC flirt with its own saturation limit?

From the much-maligned spinoff launch of Power Slap (just weeks after White was caught on camera slapping his wife on New Year’s Eve in Mexico) to steady cries from critics of watered-down matchmaking, 2024 was a weird year for the promotion. Yes, UFC still delivered big fights and even bigger events, from UFC 300 to its high-priced debut at The Sphere in Las Vegas for UFC 306. The company also only continued to grow from the standpoint of reaching the coveted young male audience and, regardless of your political lean, played a noticeable supporting role in cageside regular Donald Trump getting re-elected as President of the United States. But explaining away the year as a success simply because of record financial gains doesn’t tell the full story. While 2024 may have technically been the eighth full year for UFC under Endeavor ownership, the merging of WWE and UFC last year into what we now know as TKO marked the first full year of unprecedented price gouging for the MMA leader. 

For as much as White tends to brag about constantly breaking the live gate records at each arena, he fails to mention each time that it’s only happening because ticket prices are reaching untenable levels (coinciding with the aforementioned dip in matchmaking quality for cards not emanating from Saudi Arabia or UAE). What we have learned about UFC over the past 12 months is that MMA fans are no longer the customers being prioritized the more that TKO focuses on leveraging its other assets toward signing government contracts with big cities to ensure entitles like UFC and WWE continue to come back. Unfortunately, it’s the MMA fans that are bearing the brunt of the costs that come with that through increased ticket and pay-per-view prices. There’s also a bit of a star problem at the moment for UFC given the realities of their soon-to-expire ESPN output deal that prioritizes the quantity of events over the price tag and effort that comes with promoting individual stars. All in all, UFC is coming dangerously close to burning bridges with its core fanbase while it continues to exchange its maverick image for that of corporate greed and political gain.  

4. Watch Dana White’s 2025 very closely 

When it comes to hyping up fans for a big event or aggressively towing the company line in the face of meddling media members at press conferences, White still holds huge value as the undisputed face of UFC. But the question in recent years now that White is set for life financially following the 2016 sale of the promotion to Endeavor is whether the CEO and president of UFC still holds as much power within the company behind the scenes. From all accounts, including the much-acclaimed 2024 Roku documentary series chronicling life behind the scenes at UFC headquarters, chief business officer Hunter Campbell has become a rising star by taking over much of the heavy lifting as it pertains to contract negotiation and last-minute matchmaking. White has also begun to aggressively divert his focus from MMA into things like Power Slap, TKO’s move into submission grappling and White’s longheld hope of moving into boxing (which could come in the form of TKO joining forces with Saudi Arabian adviser Turki Alalshikh, whose sponsorship of UFC 306 offset the outrageous production costs at The Sphere). For as much as White’s aggressive ambition can still be a huge plus for the brand at times, it’s become clear he no longer has the same passion for MMA, in general, and his heavy-handed style doesn’t always help from a public relations standpoint. Is this the year that White takes a noticeable step back from the spotlight and day-to-day grind of UFC in exchange for more of a figurehead role? The signs are there and they are starting to make the industry wonder. 

5. Women’s MMA has seen much better days

Even though White had originally gone on the record saying women would never compete in the UFC, his notable acquiescence ahead of Ronda Rousey’s 2013 Octagon debut sparked a revolution across women’s MMA that had been previously building under the Strikeforce banner. Much like women’s basketball in 2024, when a strong WNBA rookie class headlined by Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, finally saw female players receive recognition on par with their male counterparts, Rousey’s star turn helped UFC’s female fighters gain almost instant acceptance. Along the way, all-time great fighters like Amanda Nunes, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Rose Namajunas and current flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko emerged. But the women’s side of MMA fell onto noticeable hard times this past year with a surprising amount of fans openly showing their disdain for what they increasingly feel is a quality of fights that are below UFC standard. Not only did 2024 see UFC quietly fold its featherweight division, both bantamweight and the perennially deep strawweight division produced inescapably poor returns and a sizable lack of elite depth. Former champion Julianna Pena returned from a two-year absence to take the 135-pound title from Raquel Pennington but their October fight, much like Pennington’s January vacant title win over Mayra Bueno Silva, was more maligned than celebrated as fans wondered why rising star Kayla Harrison was forced to wait for her shot. Luckily for UFC, the women’s flyweight division was the deepest and most consistently entertaining. And Nunes, the greatest fighter in women’s history, has teased a 2025 comeback. But it wasn’t enough to dilute the occasional booing and open derision fans had for women’s MMA, in general. Here’s to hoping that changes for the better in the new year.