Free MLB home run picks, odds for June 6: Juan Soto, Jazz Chisholm among best bets for Friday HR player props

Despite being just two months into a 15-year contract, some Mets fans are already having buyer’s remorse on Juan Soto’s deal. However, his bat is heating up as of late, and some sportsbooks haven’t adjusted their MLB prop odds on him, so value’s there for the taking as related to his MLB HR props. Soto enters the Friday MLB schedule on an eight-game on-base streak, with a 1.257 OPS over the last seven of those as he’ll visit the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the majors. New York will visit Coors Field, and he’s homered three times over his last two games at the ballpark. Even with that, you can find Soto at +350 in the latest MLB home run odds from FanDuel, where you can get $200 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 with this FanDuel promo code.

Any first-time users interested in putting together MLB home run picks today can also pad their bankrolls with the latest DraftKings promo code or bet365 bonus code, just to name a few. With MLB HR props available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks and betting strategy. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 35.85 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 59 days and up 20.1 units since May 29. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Friday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog, and see our MLB parlay and top MLB props here.

Best MLB home run picks for Friday, June 6:

• Juan Solo, Mets (+350)
• Jac Caglianone, Royals (+600)
• Jazz Chisholm, Yankees (+450)
• Parlay these picks for +17225 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

Juan Solo, Mets (+350)

Soto may not be playing at the level of someone on a $700 million contract, but he’s playing better than many Mets fans would lead you to believe. He was walked five times over the last times so didn’t have many chances to swing the bat, but he homered in three of his four prior games. He has a dream matchup on Friday as the Mets head to the thin air of Colorado. Outside of the NL East teams he played while with the Nationals, Soto has homered in Coors Field more times than any other visiting ballpark in the majors. Some sportsbooks have his MLB odds at +320 but you can find Soto homering at +350 with a DraftKings promo code.

“He is facing Antonio Senzatela who he has had some success against in his career with 2 HRs in just 4 ABs against him, including one in their matchup against each other last week. Senzatela is 1-10 on the season with 98 hits allowed in 58 IP,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +300 for Soto to hit a HR.”

Jac Caglianone, Royals (+600)

The former Florida star and top prospect just made his MLB debut on Tuesday after setting numerous records in college. One was hitting a 516-foot homer that is longer than any MLB home run hit during the Statcast era, and another was having a record nine-game home run streak that tied for the longest in Division I history. He’s gotten off to a slow start in the majors but will face Chicago’s Davis Martin on Friday, and the pitcher has allowed multiple home runs in three games this season, including his last start.

“He is putting up elite metrics in terms of bat speed over his first few games, so if he barrels up the ball, it’s going to go far,” Fetner said of Caglianone. “Davis Martin started the season strong in terms of preventing HRs, but he did give up two long balls in his last start.” The model sets the line for Caglianone homering at around +500, so there’s good value at betting him at +600 at FanDuel.

Jazz Chisholm, Yankees (+450)

After an IL stint that cost him over a month of action, Chisholm homered in his first game back on Tuesday. He’s hitting .455 in his three games since returning, so he’s seeing the ball well, and he’s hitting .429 off Friday’s starter in Walker Buehler of the Red Sox. Then there’s the fact that this rivalry game will take place at Yankee Stadium, whose right field porch of 314 feet is the third-shortest in the majors and favors lefties like Chisholm. Nearly 88% of Chisholm’s home runs this season have come at home as you can nab Chisholm at +450 at either BetMGM or bet365.

“Jazz has played well at Yankee stadium this season with a .286 batting average and 1.003 OPS at home compared to a .113 average and .465 OPS on the road,” Fetner stated. “He has hit 7 of his 8 HRs at home and 7 of his 8 HRs against RHPs.” See more Yankees vs. Red sox picks here.

Where to bet MLB props on Friday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Friday:

More MLB picks for Friday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Friday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is on a 143-75 roll (+1976.25) on baseball picks. SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is also 45-42 (+748) over his last 87 MLB picks, and he already has locked in picks for Friday.