Yankees vs. Red Sox odds, prediction, props, bets: 2025 MLB picks for Friday, June 6 from proven model

The Boston Red Sox will meet the New York Yankees in the first of a three-game weekend series on Friday. New York (38-23) leads the American League East, while Boston (30-34) is fourth in the division. The Yankees have won five of the last six meetings between the fierce rivals. Right-hander Walker Buehler (4-3, 4.44 ERA) is expected to take the mound for Boston, while New York will counter with right-hander Will Warren (3-3, 5.19 ERA).

First pitch from Yankee Stadium in New York is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. New York is -199 on the money line (risk $199 to win $100) in the latest Red Sox vs. Yankees odds from BetMGM, while Boston is a +164 underdog (risk $100 to win $164). The over/under for total runs scored is 9. SportsLine’s proven model has made its Yankees vs. Red Sox picks and it likes New York to win, but Boston to cover on the run line. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 11 of the 2025 MLB season on a profitable 13-10 run on top-rated MLB money-line betting picks. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps, or new users taking advantage of the latest FanDuel promo code, DraftKings promo code or Fanatics Sportsbook promo code could have seen strong returns.

Here are the model’s three best bets for Red Sox vs. Yankees on Friday:

• Yankees ML (-199)
• Red Sox run line +1.5 (-125)
• Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 total bases (-155)

Yankees to win (-199)

New York has built a 5.5-game lead in the American League East, winning seven of its last 10 games. New York has been dominant of late in the series, having beaten the Red Sox in five of their past six matchups. The Yankees have outscored Boston 32-24 during that stretch. The model is confident the Yankees can win the series opener, and has a money-line probability of well over 60% of the time. See the latest BetMGM promo code to get even more value if you love this bet.

Red Sox run line +1.5 (-125)

After 10,000 simulations, the model likes Boston to stay within the run line, as it has the Yankees winning the game by an average score of 5.2 to 4.4, with Boston covering 60% of the time. The teams are among the top scoring teams in baseball. The Yankees have the best run-differential in the American League at plus-99, having scored a league-best 326 runs in 61 games (5.3). The Red Sox, meanwhile, have the third-best scoring team in the AL and sixth in MLB, having scored 303 runs in 64 games (4.7).

If you want even more MLB picks, SportsLine’s top MLB expert, Matt Severance, is heating up. Get his best bets for Tuesday, all from the expert who is 143-75 on his last 218 MLB picks (+19). 

Jazz Chisholm over 0.5 total bases (-155)

Since coming back from injury, Chisholm has been on fire. He has five hits in his first 11 at-bats since his return. In Thursday’s 4-0 win over the Cleveland Guardians, he was 3-for-4 with an RBI. He was 2-for-3 with a homer and RBI in Tuesday’s 3-2 win over Cleveland. Despite his .207 batting average, Chisholm has 11 extra-base hits in 33 games, including eight homers and 19 RBI.

The model is projecting 1.6 total bases for Chisholm, and gives this prop a five out of five-star rating. Chisholm has achieved eight overs in his last 10 home games, with an average of 1.8 total bases per game. bet365 has Chisholm at -155 on this prop, and the latest bet365 bonus code could get you even more bang for your buck.