NFL player prop best bets for Week 1: Unheralded TE scores TD, Bijan Robinson the receiver and more plays

I don’t know about you, but I’m a part-time year-round gambler. Sure, I’ll dabble in the other three major sports along with some golf and soccer, but the fall is when things kick into a different gear. That’s what makes this time of the year so exciting. Not only do we simply get football back in our lives, watching our favorite teams make a bid for a Super Bowl, but we get fantasy football and gambling back as well. 

As we look towards the opening slate, I’ve combed through the player prop market and identified some wagers that have particularly caught my attention. And I’ll be rolling this out weekly throughout the year. These bets will range from simple over/under props to anytime touchdown bets, and we’ll even suggest some ladder plays from time to time. Now let’s try to make some money out of the gate to start 2025 off hot. 

Brenton Strange: Anytime touchdown

• Best price: +400 (ESPN Bet)

The Jaguars offense is going to center around their immensely talented receiver duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. However, don’t sleep on tight end Brenton Strange being a factor in the passing game. As we saw with Evan Engram in the past, Trevor Lawrence can pepper the tight end position when he drops back, and the arrival of head coach Liam Coen only emboldens Strange to break out in 2025, beginning in Week 1. 

When Coen was the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season, tight end Cade Otton proved to be a favorable target, specifically in the red area. Otton saw 14 red zone targets and turned those into 10 receptions for 58 yards and four touchdowns. Coen could follow a similar path with Strange. 

Plus, Strange gets a favorable matchup out of the gate with a Panthers defense that surrendered the most receiving touchdowns (11) to tight ends in 2024. 

George Pickens: Over 54.5 receiving yards

• Best price: -115 (BetMGM)

The Eagles are more than a touchdown favorite in this game, so the books are telling us that they expect something close to a Philly blowout. If they’re right, that’ll mean Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense will need to throw to keep themselves in it. Even without the lopsided spread, Dallas was already projected to be one of the more pass-heavy teams in the NFL in 2025, with questionable pieces in the backfield to go along with a depleted defense following the trade of Micah Parsons. 

This all points to Dallas receivers seeing a heavy workload in the opener, which includes newbie George Pickens. CeeDee Lamb will continue to be the most targeted piece within the Cowboys offense, but Pickens will be the No. 2 option and the home-run hitter. He is now playing with the most talented quarterback of his career in Prescott, and the two have popped at times this summer. This feels too low given the projected role/game script, even with a tough matchup. 

David Njoku: 50+ receiving yards

Best price: -114 ( FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet)

The Cincinnati Bengals gave up the third-most receiving yards to tight ends in 2024, and I suspect this defense will continue to struggle in 2025. Moreover, the Bengals’ high-powered offense will likely force Joe Flacco to throw quite a bit to keep the Browns in the game, and Njoku is a central part of that for Cleveland.

Last season, Njoku went over this number in five of his 11 games played. As for the rapport between Flacco and Njoku, it’s proven to be pretty prolific. In the five starts Flacco had for the Browns during the 2023 regular season, Flacco averaged 78 receiving yards per game. That included two 100-plus yard performances. 

That creates a sweet spot for us to ladder with Njoku’s receiving yard output in the opener. Here’s how I’m planning to play this: 

• 50+ receiving yards at -114 (1 unit) 
• 60+ receiving yards at +148 (.5 units)
• 70+ receiving yards at +225 (.25 units)

Bijan Robinson: Over 22.5 receiving yards

Best price: -115 ( DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket)

This number feels too low for a high-volume player like Robinson. Yes, he’ll dominate the carries for Atlanta, but he was also fourth on the team in targets last season and fifth in receiving yards. Last year, Robinson averaged 25.4 receiving yards per game. 

Folks might be scared off because Robinson averaged a measly 6.7 receiving yards per game in the three games Michael Penix Jr. started at the end of the year, but Robinson’s four targets were still roughly in line with his pre-Penix numbers, so that output may be an anomaly. 

He also gets a favorable matchup against the Buccaneers, who surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to backs last season. 

James Conner: Over 68.5 rushing yards

Best price: -110 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Conner continues to be a steady cog on the ground for the Arizona Cardinals, and the stage is set up nicely for him to begin the 2025 campaign on a strong note. 

This isn’t expected to be a highly competitive game as the New Orleans Saints are in a full-rebuild mode with Spencer Rattler starting under center. If Arizona builds up a lead, it could look to chew clock with the running game spearheaded by Conner against a run defense that allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to back in the league in 2024. 

The veteran went over this number in eight of his 16 games played last year as well.