Mariners’ skid continues, and Seattle’s chance to end division title drought might be slipping away

The Seattle Mariners lost their fourth consecutive game on Friday, dropping a 4-1 contest to the Atlanta Braves (box score) that saw the bullpen spoil a quality start from right-hander Logan Gilbert. Left-hander Gabe Speier, normally reliable, surrendered three runs on four hits without recording an out in the bottom of the eighth inning. The Mariners offense then failed to reach base in the top half of the ninth inning as Seattle’s winless start to September reached 0-4.

Worse yet, the Mariners remain 3 ½ games behind the Astros in the American League West — that despite Houston suffering an extra-innings loss to the Texas Rangers. The inability to capitalize on the Astros’ misfortune has become a common theme in Seattle, to the extent that the Mariners can blame only themselves if they fail to capture their first division title since 2001.

Consider this. The Astros, ravaged by injuries, have played at a 74-win pace since the All-Star Game. Yet the Mariners have gained only 1 ½ games on the Astros in that time. What’s more is that Houston’s division lead is exactly as large as it was on Aug. 1 — that despite the Astros going 15-18. (The M’s are 15-16 in that span.) No matter how you slice and dice the season, the Mariners have fumbled sure opportunities to make up ground on and/or overtake the Astros:

Mariners fans might note that how Seattle has faltered has exacerbated the psychic damage they’ve suffered as of late. The Mariners have one of the best records in one-run games in all the majors, but you wouldn’t know it given five of their last 13 losses have been by a single score.

The kicker in all of this is that the Mariners still have a clear pathway to the division crown. They have one of the weakest remaining schedules in baseball, according to Tankathon’s math, with their opponents winning just 47.3% of their games. The Astros have closer to an average-strength schedule to play, with their own opponents winning exactly 50% of their games to date. 

It’s up to the Mariners to take advantage of that easier schedule. It’s also on them to make the most of the three head-to-head games remaining with the Astros, all of which will take place in Houston from Sept. 19-21. The season series is knotted at 5-5, meaning that whoever wins that remaining three-game set will gain control of the divisional tiebreaker. Remember, MLB did away with Game 163 scenarios when it expanded the playoffs, so the head-to-head record would determine the AL West winner if the two parties end up tied atop the division at season’s end.

Of course, emphasizing those points ignores that the West is actually a three-team race. The Rangers, in the middle of their own series against the Astros, are only a half-game behind the Mariners and are now four back in the West. It’s possible Texas emerges from this weekend in a much stronger position than just a few days ago. Additionally, the Mariners’ problem hasn’t been coming across opportunities to take over the West, it’s been executing upon them. 

Whether or not that changes over the coming weeks is to be seen. If it doesn’t, the Mariners will be left to wonder what could have been if they had made better use of the past few months.