Mets vs. Phillies prediction, series preview: Can Philly wrap up NL East this week after Trea Turner injury?

Starting Monday night at Citizens Bank Park, the visiting New York Mets and host Philadelphia Phillies will meet for a four-game series that could provide a final dose of clarity in the National League East race. This will be the last time the two rivals meet in the 2025 regular season. 

Speaking of which, here are the current NL East standings: 

1. Philadelphia Phillies: 83-60 (+7 GB)
2. New York Mets: 76-67 (7 GB)
3. Miami Marlins: 66-77 (17 GB)
4. Atlanta Braves: 64-79 (19 GB)
5. Washington Nationals: 58-84 (24 ½ GB)

With 19 games left to play, a seven-game deficit amounts to long odds for the Mets, which means New York essentially needs to sweep this series in order to have any real hopes of winning the NL East for the first time since 2015. 

That brings us to the pitching matchups for this series and other essential details. All games are streaming on Fubo (try for free).

Particularly of note is that the Mets will face a lefty in at least two of the four games (and it could be three of four if Jesús Luzardo pitches for the Phillies on Thursday), and that’s potentially bad news for the New York offense. This season, the Mets rank second in MLB with a weighted on-base average, or wOBA (what’s this?), of .336. Against lefties this season, however, the Mets’ wOBA drops to .311, which ranks 13th in MLB. It’s not accurate to say the Mets are ineffective against lefties, but they have indeed struggled relative to their performance against right-handed pitching. Elsewhere, each team will be trotting out a starter who badly needs to find his expected level after a subpar 2025 to date: Nola (6.78 ERA) for the Phillies in the opener, and Manaea (5.60 ERA) for the Mets in Game 2. 

Now for three things to know about this potentially key series.  

The Mets are facing long odds in the division

As just noted above, making up seven games in a span of 19 games is a titan’s lift, and that’s what’s facing the Mets in the NL East. Not surprisingly, SportsLine coming into Monday’s slate gives the Mets just a 1.3% chance of winning the division in 2025. Giving them slightly more hope, however, is that they hold the tiebreaker over the Phillies. 

Thanks to the bloated postseason calendar, MLB no longer makes time for tiebreaker games to be added to the regular-season docket when necessary, and that means in almost all instances head-to-head records are used to break ties for division titles, playoff spots, and playoff seeds. In the Mets’ case, they’re a robust 7-2 against Philly this season. Divisional opponents play each other 13 times in the regular season, and those seven wins mean the Mets have already clinched the season series against the Phils. That means if the two teams wind up in a tie atop the NL East standings after game 162, then the Mets will be declared division champs by virtue of that triumph in the head-to-head season series. That doesn’t greatly change the outlook, but it does give the Mets a bit more hope than you might think just by eyeballing the current standings. Really, their focus is on maintaining their four-game lead over the Reds and Giants in the chase for the third and final wild card spot, 

From the Phillies’ standpoint, yes, of course they want to fend off the Mets, but a more compelling battle is the one for seeding in the NL. In each league, the two division winners with the best records are rewarded with a first-round bye straight to the Division Series. The NL Central-leading Brewers right now have a chokehold on the top seed, and the battle for that seconded coveted bye comes down to the Phillies against the eventual NL West winner (the Dodgers lead the Padres by a game). The Phils have a four-game edge over the Dodgers on that front. 

The Phillies are down key contributors

Injuries have hit Philly hard in recent days and weeks, and those absences could be keenly felt in this series. First, ace Zack Wheeler will miss the remainder of the 2025 season, playoffs included, after undergoing surgery to remove a blood clot in his shoulder. More recently, All-Star shortstop Trea Turner suffered a hamstring strain. At this writing, there’s no clear timetable for his return, but last year Turner missed six weeks with the same injury. Such an absence would push Turner’s return into the back half of October. While Turner’s replacement at short, Edmundo Sosa, is a capable sort, Turner this season had been playing like an MVP candidate. Third baseman Alec Bohm has also landed on the shelf with a sore shoulder. Framed another way, these have stripped away a 2025 total of almost 11 WAR from the current Philly cause. That’s a huge blow, and the effects of it go far beyond this upcoming series. 

Juan Soto comes in hot

Remember when Soto looked like a disappointment and maybe even a bust coming off his record $765 million free-agent pact with the Mets? As recently as early June, Soto was lugging around an uncharacteristic OPS in the 700s. Since then, though, he’s found his anticipated level at the plate and then some. 

Soto on June 6 tallied three hits and a walk in a win over the Rockies, which lifted his OPS out of 700s for good. Since that point, he’s slashed .289/.429/.604, and since the calendar flipped to August Soto has a line of .306/.456/.645. As a consequence of that recent heater, his OPS+ for the season is up to 161 versus a pre-2025 career mark of 160. In other words, Juan Soto is still Juan Soto, and Juan Soto is poised to produce like Juan Soto in this series. 

Prediction

The Mets knock around Nola in the opener, but the Phils ride their two standout lefties and home-field advantage in Games 2 and 3 before the Mets force a split. A four-game split should all but put a bow on the Phillies’ second consecutive division title.