Upset alert in NFL Week 2? Why these five favorites could fall, including Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers

The opening week of the NFL’s regular season is always fun for a couple of reasons. First off, we get football back in our lives. Second, we can wildly overreact to all of what unfolded in Week 1. For instance, Daniel Jones has to be the favorite for NFL MVP now, right? After all, he just led the Indianapolis Colts on scoring drives on every single possession against Miami. What about the Kansas City Chiefs? They’re done after dropping the opener against the Chargers! Of course, both are silly decrees to make, and are over-the-top examples to say that not everything you see in Week 1 is as it appears. 

That’s where teams and spectators alike can be thrown off in Week 2 with upsets that they didn’t see coming based on what they saw throughout the opening weekend. So, as we did last week, we’ll highlight five betting favorites who are on upset alert on this upcoming slate. Last week, we accurately identified the New England Patriots as a favorite that ended up falling, and the New York Jets, Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks were all dogs that we highlighted that nearly pulled off the upset as well. Which teams are on upset alert in Week 2? Let’s find out. 

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Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

• When: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET | Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
• Stream: Prime Video
• Commanders ML odds: +150

The Green Bay Packers were wildly impressive in their thumping of the Detroit Lions. They’re clearly the apple of the eye of a lot of NFL fans at the moment, and rightfully so. That said, they do have a tough matchup on a short week as they host the Washington Commanders on Thursday night. Green Bay is laying 3.5 in this head-to-head, which feels too rich, particularly because I feel Washington can clip them outright. 

Jordan Love had a solid showing from a statistical standpoint, but some of his underlying metrics do raise the antenna a bit. While the Packers QB didn’t turn the ball over, he had one would-be interception that was dropped and finished with a 4.5% turnover-worthy throw rate, which ranked eighth-highest among starters in Week 1. Also, 18.2% of his throws were off-target in Week 1, the second-highest rate among quarterbacks, and only looking up to Caleb Williams. 

Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense should give the Packers pass rush much harder of a time than the Lions, who were working in a new offensive play caller. There’s more continuity with Washington’s coaching staff coming into Year 2 of Daniels, and the second-year signal-caller continues to be one of the more dynamic dual-threats in the NFL.  Don’t forget what Washington was able to do a year ago on their NFC Championship run.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Jaguars ML odds: +150

The Cincinnati Bengals won in Week 1! All is fixed … right? Wrong. Sorry, but Cincinnati barely escaping Cleveland with a one-point win doesn’t exactly instill a ton of confidence that their early-season struggles are actually a thing of the past. 

While the defense did pick off Joe Flacco twice, they also allowed four different receivers to record at least five catches for 50 yards. Meanwhile, the high-priced offense managed just 2.9 yards per play in the win. That won’t cut it against the Jaguars, who were impressive in a Week 1 blowout over Carolina. Jacksonville ran the ball particularly well with Travis Etienne Jr. logging 143 yards rushing on just 16 carries, and Trevor Lawrence did seem to get into a rhythm, specifically when targeting tight end Brenton Strange (four catches on four targets for 59 yards). He could once again be a favorite target for Lawrence as the Bengals struggled to defend Cleveland’s tight ends in Week 1. 

As a home favorite in 2024, the Bengals went 3-4, and I think they are still closer to that squad than anything else. 

Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Seahawks ML odds: +126

Aaron Rodgers won the Spite Bowl, taking down his former New York Jets squad with a four-touchdown showing in his Pittsburgh Steelers debut. At times, Rodgers looked like his vintage self, which understandably excites what Pittsburgh’s prospects will be this season. But let’s not jump too far out ahead of ourselves. I wonder if Pittsburgh’s offense is due for a letdown after that 34-point outburst in Week 1. Moreover, Rodgers, who was sacked four times, didn’t turn the ball over once, but finished with a 6.7% turnover-worthy throw rate and had two would-be interceptions that were dropped. I remain high on the Seahawks and thought the defense largely played well against the Niners. 

Sam Darnold didn’t have a prolific debut — and mostly zeroed in on Jaxon Smith-Njigba — but should face much easier sledding against this Pittsburgh defense that alarmingly soft against New York, surrendering 6.4 yards per play.

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Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

• When: 4:05 p.m. ET | Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Colts ML odds: +102

As I highlighted in the open, I’m not exactly buying that the Daniel Jones we saw in Week 1 is the one we’re going to get throughout the 2025 season. How much of that was Miami being in disarray? We’ll find out this week when he faces much stiffer competition in the Broncos defense. While I remain skeptical about Jones, I believe even a serviceable showing could keep Indy within range of an upset as a home dog to Denver. Why? I wasn’t overly impressed with Bo Nix, which is a scary takeaway considering the Broncos were one of my preseason best bets. Nix had a 7.5 turnover-worthy throw rate in Week 1, which ranked third-highest among quarterbacks. He had three total turnovers and had one would-be interception that was dropped. If he’s embarking on a sophomore slump and is forcing his defense — the strength of this team — to play with short fields, they’ll drastically be behind the eight-ball.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5)

• When: Monday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
• TV: ABC, ESPN | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Buccaneers ML odds: +126

Let’s throw the nine points scored off to the side because we know that’s bad. Houston’s reshaped offensive line looked a lot like the unit that had C.J. Stroud running for his life in 2024, as the Texans QB was sacked three times in Week 1. Overall, the Texans offensive line surrendered 14 pressures, and the 41.2% pressures allowed per dropback was the seventh-highest. If that continues, this will dramatically lower the ceiling for this franchise, particularly against high-powered offenses like the Bucs. Baker Mayfield didn’t have the best showing in Week 1, but still managed three passing touchdowns, two of which went to rookie Emeka Egbuka. If Tampa Bay continues to move the ball with regularity, it puts a lot of pressure on the Houston O-line to hold up, and I’m unsure they’re able to answer that bell at the moment.