Mets’ losing streak reaches seven as New York’s pitching staff continues to falter in tight NL wild card race

The New York Mets lost again on Friday night, dropping an 8-3 final against the Texas Rangers (box score) that featured both Jacob deGrom’s return to Citi Field for the first time since he departed through free agency and a brief, albeit disastrous outing from rookie starter Jonah Tong. The Mets, now losers of seven in a row, have seen their command over a playoff berth all but slip away. Coming into Saturday, the Mets will sit a half-game ahead of the San Francisco Giants and 1 ½ games ahead of the Cincinnati Reds for the National League’s third and final wild card spot.

“Obviously, very concerned,” outfielder Brandon Nimmo said about the team’s mindset after the game. “We want to be in the playoffs and we’re not playing playoff baseball right now.”

The Mets’ woes extend well beyond these past seven games. They were in first place in the NL East as recently as August 2, which is notable since their current 12-game deficit for the Philadelphia Phillies represents the largest gap between first and second place in any division. The Mets’ recent nosedive includes a 14-25 stretch since the start of August.

Just what has caused the Mets to flounder — and can they course correct before the team with MLB‘s second-highest Opening Day payroll does the unthinkable and misses the postseason? Let’s address those matters using some pertinent subheadings.

1. Rotation has collapsed

Last winter, top executive David Stearns eschewed making marquee additions to the Mets’ rotation in favor of value shopping, the likes of which he perfected during his time running the small-market Milwaukee Brewers. That meant signing and converting All-Star closer Clay Holmes back to the rotation, but it also meant expressing confidence in the likes of veteran additions Sean Manaea (a re-signing), Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning — not to say nothing of internal options like Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and Paul Blackburn.

The Mets’ faith was tested immediately. Manaea and Montas both suffered injuries during the spring, leaving their depth tested out of the gates. It was a surprise, then, that the Mets’ rotation was statistically one of the best in the majors over the first chunk of the season. They ranked fourth in unit ERA, with Senga, Holmes, Peterson, and Megill performing strongly. The Mets were in rarefied air heading into the summer, with seemingly more starters than available spots.

Alas, that strength has since turned into a weakness. 

The Mets rank 24th in second-half rotation ERA. Of the four pitchers with at least eight starts since the break — that is: Holmes, Senga, Peterson, and Manaea — only one of them (Holmes) has an ERA better than 5.00. More injuries have also ravaged the Mets’ starting unit. Megill went on the shelf in mid-June with a strained elbow, and Canning suffered a ruptured Achilles’ tendon less than a fortnight later. Neither, obviously, has made an appearance since then. 

The Mets have tried to remedy what ails them. They cut bait with Blackburn and relegated Montas to the bullpen before he suffered a season-ending elbow injury of his own. More recently, they demoted Senga to the minors. The Mets have also aggressively turned to a trio of rookie arms: Nolan McLean (who has been excellent to date), the aforementioned Tong, and Brandon Sproat, scheduled to make his second big-league start on Saturday. 

It should be noted that, through it all, the Mets’ bullpen has been an area of concern. They ranked 14th in unit ERA during the first half. They’re down to 21st for the second half — that despite a deadline haul that netted relievers Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, and Gregory Soto. Combine a flailing rotation with an unreliable bullpen, and it’s not hard to understand why the Mets have surrendered more than five runs on average over their last 39 games.

The Mets’ inability to keep runs off the board hasn’t just cost them games; it’s also cost their offense recognition as being a much better, deeper unit as of late.

2. Offense has stepped up

The Mets’ offense underperformed, in a sense, during the first half of the season. Although they ranked sixth in wRC+, a FanGraphs metric that adjusts for ballpark and other variables, they checked in at 14th in runs scored. Since the break, they’ve had those measures come into alignment, with them ranking fourth in both categories during the second half.

The Mets made only one notable in-season addition to their lineup, obtaining outfielder Cedric Mullins from the Baltimore Orioles at the deadline. Coincidentally, Mullins is the only Mets hitter with more than 100 plate appearances in the second half who has performed below the league-average mark. Otherwise, they’ve been led as of late by marquee free-agent signing Juan Soto (who very well could set a new career-high in home runs) and homegrown infielders Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. 

Again, the Mets’ lineup hasn’t received its due credit as of late because of the team’s overall tailspin. And, true, they’ve contributed, to an extent, with below-average defensive play. But any reasonable analysis of this club will highlight the second-half offense as a bright spot.

3. The road ahead

The Mets now face a slew of questions that boil down to the following inquiry: Can they get their acts together for the next two weeks, or are they doomed to miss the postseason? The Mets seem well aware that their rotation is a problem, and it appears they’re open to more changes.

“We said that we were going to get creative and get through the off day,” manager Carlos Mendoza said on Friday when asked if Tong would make another start. “We just got done with that one, so we’ll see.”

What, precisely, that ends up entailing for the Mets over the rest of the season is to be seen. One thing is for certain: the schedule does not favor them. Here’s a look at how New York’s remaining slate stacks up against the Giants and the Reds, according to Tankathon’s calculations:

To state the obvious: strength of schedule doesn’t always matter or make the difference, especially in small samples. If the worst team in the NBA or the NFL beats the best team, that’s a headline. If that happens in MLB, it’s Tuesday night. Underdog teams win constantly in baseball, and so while the Giants do have a seeming advantage here, it’s up to them to make it a reality. 

The Mets, for their part, have to know that their biggest advantage in this race was always their pre-existing lead. With that resource almost completely exhausted, it’s up to them to find a way to navigate the next two weeks while remaining ahead — and while avoiding becoming known as the $322 million team that couldn’t crack the postseason.