College Football Playoff Rankings projection: Miami keeps ascending as Texas A&M, Illinois enter the mix

LSU coach Brian Kelly had reason to lash out following Saturday night’s win over Florida. After his team’s third straight victory despite not yet firing on all cylinders offensively, Kelly made a justifiable point that needs to be reiterated — his Tigers made enough plays to win the game.

That’s all that matters in college football this season when you’re a team like LSU facing landmines in conference play week after week. Getting to the College Football Playoff is the only goal and thus far, the Tigers haven’t suffered a critical toe-stub before facing five more games against nationally-ranked competition.

Heading into Week 4, LSU is a top-4 seed in our updated playoff projection, the first of four SEC teams — the same number as the Big Ten — we’re expecting in the bracket at this point. Texas A&M jumped in the top 12 this week after its win at Notre Dame, as did the Illinois Fighting Illini, whose path to an at-large seed widened with the Irish’s loss to the Aggies.

1. Ohio State

Projected final record: 12-1 (Big Ten champion)

We’ve had at least one unbeaten team in the playoff since the field expanded in 2014 expect one (2017). That’s when one-loss Alabama beat Georgia in overtime on Tua Tagovailoa’s heroics to win the title. Ohio State would certainly accept a loss if it meant another run through the bracket ending in Ryan Day’s second straight national championship. In this projection, the Buckeyes garner top billing after losing to Penn State in the regular season before taking out the Nittany Lions in Indianapolis to win the conference.

2. Miami

Projected final record: 12-1 (ACC champion)

If a 49-12 victory over previously-unbeaten South Florida wasn’t enough to get you believing in this Hurricanes, perhaps a win at Florida State will push you over the hump in a couple of weeks. This squad has looked dominant on both sides of the football and offseason transfer Carson Beck is a Heisman frontrunner after his 340-yard, four-touchdown effort in Saturday’s win. Miami has been in this position before and faltered, but it appears this squad may have staying power near the top of the polls.

3. LSU

Projected final record: 11-2 (SEC champion)

Good luck trying to determine the current SEC favorite in mid-September. Sample size is increasing, but there’s no clear-cut frontrunner in what we’re expecting to be a competitive race over the next few months. The Tigers’ defense is elite, that much we know, after swiping five interceptions and scoring a touchdown in Saturday’s win over Florida. The season-opening victory at Clemson is not as sexy as it once looked, but Kelly’s not going to care about how that one’s interpreted.

4. Penn State

Projected final record: 12-1 (Big Ten runner-up)

The Nittany Lions host Oregon later this month and travel to Ohio State during the season’s second half. Those are the defining games on the schedule for James Franklin, whose team is capable of getting through their schedule without a loss if an elite Drew Allar shows up in those matchups. As we’ve mentioned before, this one-loss scenario projects a loss to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship in a rematch from the regular season.

5. Georgia

Projected final record: 11-2 (SEC runner-up)

Georgia’s resume may include more quality wins than Penn State, but one fewer loss for the Nittany Lions may garner a slightly better seed at season’s end. The Bulldogs looked the part in Saturday’s win at Tennessee, especially Gunner Stockton, who silenced critics with several big-time throws in the second half. His fourth-down touchdown toss to London Humphreys was on the money and silenced the crowd of 100,000-plus inside Neyland Stadium.

6. Oregon

Projected final record: 11-1

Dan Lanning’s team is lethal once again. If they’re able to conquer Penn State at Beaver Stadium at the end of the month, the Ducks will be favored to run through the Big Ten gauntlet for the second consecutive season without a loss. We’re not going that far just yet, but a single setback against the Nittany Lions would be more than enough to garner a first-round home game designation from the selection committee.

7. Florida State

Projected final record: 11-2 (ACC runner-up)

Two losses to Miami this season? That’s not something Seminoles fans want to hear at this point, but that’s the projection with the first quarter of the campaign nearing completion. If Florida State beats Kent State and Virginia over the next two weekends, the Seminoles will be hosting an unbeaten Hurricanes team in Tallahassee in arguably the biggest home game of Mike Norvell’s tenure. That could certainly be Miami’s first loss if Tommy Castellanos and the Florida State offense finds big plays that afternoon.

8. Texas Tech

Projected final record: 12-1 (Big 12 champion)

This is a placeholder spot for the Big 12 champion — for now. The Red Raiders’ showdown at Utah this weekend in the conference opener for both teams is paramount to each program’s possible march to the league title game. Texas Tech’s had no issues moving the football at will early, but the Red Raiders haven’t faced a pass rush yet quite like what the Utes will bring. Why does the projected Big 12 champion get the No. 8 seed, here? Part of the reason is due to the league’s lacked of ranked teams. Texas Tech, Utah and Iowa State are the only squads in this week’s AP Top 25.

9. Illinois

Projected final record: 11-1

The schedule’s setting up nicely for the Illini if they’re able to beat nationally-ranked Indiana this weekend. USC and Ohio State would be the only other worries the rest of the way and Illinois gets both of those teams at home. Getting to 11 wins in the Big Ten would undoubtedly warrant an at-large berth and depending on league tiebreakers, may get Illinois into the conference title game. The win at Duke was the first hurdle and now the Hoosiers are in the crosshairs.

10. Texas A&M

Projected final record: 10-2

Welcome to the party, Aggies. Mike Elko has a signature win this season after Texas A&M’s comeback victory at Notre Dame. Marcel Reed is one of the most underrated players nationally and his dual-threat abilities on third down makes this team a serious contender near the top of the SEC. If Notre Dame wins out, the Aggies’ nonconference road win is going to look better than most of the other marquee out-of-league victories among the rest of the SEC’s at-large hopefuls.

11. Oklahoma

Projected final record: 9-3

The SEC’s fourth team in our playoff projection this week, the unbeaten Sooners’ odds to make their first playoff appearance under Brent Venables maximize if they’re able to take out Auburn and Texas over the next few weeks. The home win against Michigan will be earmarked later this fall by the selection committee as a quality victory and no team in the country faces a tougher slate down the stretch. If there’s a potential three-loss qualifier this season, Oklahoma has the strength of schedule to warrant inclusion.

12. South Florida

Projected final record: 11-2 (Group of Six champion)

The blowout loss at Miami does not disrupt the Bulls’ playoff path this season. Now, they’re going to have to win the American and take out several other adversaries with playoff aspirations to get there, including North Texas, Memphis and Navy. Those three teams are unbeaten at this juncture along with Tulane, whom USF will not face during the regular season.

13. Alabama 
14. Tennessee
15. Texas
16. Notre Dame
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. Nebraska
20. USC
21. Georgia Tech
22. Utah
23. Ole Miss
24. Indiana
25. Missouri

Projected CFP first-round games

• No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia (winner plays No. 4 Penn State)
• No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Oregon (winner plays No. 3 Miami)
• No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Florida State (winner plays No. 2 LSU)
• No. 9 Illinois at No. 8 Texas Tech (winner plays No. 1 Ohio State)

Texas, South Carolina, Notre Dame and Clemson were the teams who exited this week’s playoff projection with the Longhorns and Irish appearing to be the only one of those squads with a chance to re-enter the conversation as the season pushes forward. Notre Dame must win out and get help, while Texas needs Arch Manning and the offense to wake up as the schedule stiffens.

Alabama responding to adversity

The Crimson Tide looked angry in Saturday’s beatdown of Wisconsin and has rebounded nicely from the eye-opening Week 1 loss at Florida State. Kalen DeBoer’s team tackles Georgia on the road in their SEC opener at the end of the month, an early-season matchup of considerable intrigue in the playoff picture. If Ty Simpson continues his hot stretch and Alabama knocks off the defending league champions at their place, the Crimson Tide’s movement in the polls will continue to surge.