NFL Week 4 picks and score predictions: Browns shock Lions in huge upset, undefeated Eagles finally lose

If Week 4 of the NFL season goes anything like Week 3, I might have to take a six-week vacation to recover, because I’m not sure I can handle anymore craziness. What we saw in Week 3 was easily one of the wildest weekends of football that the NFL has ever produced. 

For one, there were so many blocked field goals that I actually lost track of how many there were. You know things have gotten out of hand when you lose track of how many blocked field goals there were. And then there’s the Bengals, who somehow lost three fumbles in a span of four offensive snaps against the Vikings, which sounds like a stat I made up, but I promise you I did not. And then we had the Browns. If there’s one team in the NFL that almost always finds a painful new way to lose, it’s the Browns, but in Week 3, they actually won. Against the Packers. After trailing by 10 points with four minutes left. It was the most un-Browns like win that I have ever seen from the Browns and it was so impressive that I might actually be on the Browns bandwagon now. 

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As wild as Week 3 was, things could actually get even crazier in Week 4, at least if my picks are any indication. There are 16 games this week and I’m taking the underdog to win in SIX of them. Is the week of the underdog upon us or am I going to look like a total fool after Week 4? Let’s get to the picks and find out. 

NFL Week 4 picks

Steelers (2-1) vs. Vikings (2-1) in Ireland

9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Fubo, try for free)

I’ll be honest here, I don’t even want to pick this game and that’s mainly because I apparently have no idea what I’m doing this year whenever I pick a game that involves an NFC North team. For the 2025 season, I’m 37-11 picking games straight-up, which sounds impressive until you realize I’m just 3-7 picking games involving NFC North teams. You do the math. You know what? Don’t do that math. We don’t have time for that. 

With the NFC North, I’ve been having a classic zig-zag problem: When I think they’re going to zig, they zag. When I think they’re going to zag, they eat pizza. When I pick an NFC North team to lose to the Bengals, they put up 48 points. When I think an NFC North team is going to cake walk to a win over the Browns, they end up blowing a 10-point lead in the final four minutes. And yes, I’m looking at you, Packers. 

The good news for me is that I don’t think my NFC North jinx applies here because this game is being played OUT of the country. For the first time in NFL history, we’re getting a game in Dublin and if I I know anything about Dublin, every fan at the game will have downed at least seven pints of Guinness by the time this thing kicks off. I once visited Ireland and the only thing I did for three straight days was drink Guinness and eat Irish Stew. And to be honest, I’m 40% sure there was Guinness in the stew. They put Guinness in everything. They also can turn anything into a stew. I love Ireland. 

As for this game, it’s almost fitting that the Vikings and Steelers are facing each other this week. There have only been two games all season where a team has forced five turnovers: The Vikings did it in Week 3 against the Bengals and the Steelers did it in Week 3 against the Patriots. 

The Vikings sent Carson Wentz out as their starting QB in Week 3, but we didn’t really learn anything about him because he got to start the second half with a 31-point lead. If there’s one time when it’s easy to play QB in the NFL, it’s when you have a 31-point lead in the second half. 

Wentz got sacked three times in the first half against the Bengals, and now, he’ll be going up against a Steelers defense that racked up five sacks against the Patriots. Wentz probably would have been sacked more in Week 3, but the Vikings only threw the ball six times in the second half because they had such a huge lead. Like I said, it’s much easier to play QB in the NFL when you have a 31-point lead. I’m guessing Minnesota won’t have a 31-point lead against the Steelers at any point, so this feels like a game where Pittsburgh’s defense will be able to tee off against Wentz.

Although I expect Wentz to struggle, I also expect Aaron Rodgers to struggle against the Vikings defense. My gut says pick the Steelers, but that could also just be the Irish Stew talking. 

PICK: Steelers 20-17 over Vikings | Steelers +2.5 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets after a winning $5 wager:

Eagles (3-0) at Buccaneers (3-0)

1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, try for free)

This game will mark the fifth time since January 2022 that the Eagles and Buccaneers have played each other and including this game, ALL FIVE meetings have been in Tampa. At this point, everyone on the Eagles’ roster might just want to chip-in and buy a house together in the Tampa area. I hear it’s a buyer’s market, but I know nothing about real estate, so please don’t take my word for it. 

Anyway, this might be the first game in NFL history between two 3-0 teams who could easily both be 0-3. On Tampa Bay’s end, if NFL games were only 59 minutes long, they would be 0-3. No team has made more use of the final minute of regulation than the Buccaneers. 

The problem with the Bucs is that it’s hard to know if they’re actually any good because of who they’ve played. Here’s a quick look at who they’ve played so far: 

Week 1: Falcons (1-2)
Week 2: Texans (0-3)
Week 3: Jets (0-3)

Their three opponents are a combined 1-8 through three weeks. With a combinec record like that, you’d think the Bucs would be dominating their opponents, but they’re not. This team is three plays away from being 0-3.  The Bucs are that guy in your fantasy league who’s 3-0 even though he has the second-lowest scoring team each week. Somehow, he gets matched up against the team that scores the fewest points each week, which allows him to keep winning and everyone hates him for it. 

Of course, the Eagles also could be 0-3. They needed two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter to beat the Rams in Week 3. They needed Travis Kelce to drop a touchdown pass (that turned into an interception) to beat the Chiefs in Week 2. And they barely beat the Cowboys in Week 1. 

I think what I’m trying to say here is that there is a 100% chance that this game is going to go down to the wire and there is a 100% chance that we’re going to get a crazy ending. The problem for the Eagles is that if there’s one team that has dominated them under Nick Sirianni, it’s the Buccaneers. Todd Bowles doesn’t regularly outcoach very many people, but he ALWAYS outcoaches Sirianni. Bowles is 4-1 in his past five games against Sirianni and a big reason for that is because the Bucs have limited Philly to just 17.4 points per game. On the flip side, the Buccaneers have averaged 27 points per game in those five meetings. So the Eagles offense can’t move the ball against Tampa Bay and the Philly defense can’t make any stops. 

Jalen Hurts is 18-0 in the past 18 games that he has started and finished. The last time he lost came in Week 4 of the 2024 season against, yup, you guessed it, the Buccaneers. If any team is going to end his streak, it only seems fitting that it’s Tampa Bay. 

PICK: Buccaneers 23-20 over Eagles | Buccaneers +3 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where you can get 20 100% profit boosts with the promo code CBS20X. Get started here:

Browns (1-2) at Lions (2-1)

1 p.m. ET (Fox,  Fubo, try for free)

I never thought I would write this about the Cleveland Browns, but they might be the most underrated team in the NFL. Look, I know we all love to laugh about the Browns, and for the first two weeks of the season, they made it easy, but this team is for real. 

The Browns have held all three of their opponents under 250 yards this year, which doesn’t seem possible when you consider that they’ve faced the Bengals (with Joe Burrow), the Ravens and the Packers. The defense is so good that if the Browns can just get somewhat competent play from their offense and special teams, they could pull off a lot of surprise wins this year. 

Let’s check out the stats: 

• Week 1: The Browns more than doubled the Bengals’ yardage output (327-141), but they lost because their kicker missed a field goal and an extra point in the fourth quarter. 
• Week 2: Yes the Browns got smoked 41-17 by the Ravens, but don’t blame the defense. The Browns held Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to a combined 36 rushing yards, marking the first time the duo had ever been held under 100. I repeat: No one had EVER held Jackson and Henry under 100 combined rushing yards and the Browns held them under 40. The Browns also outgained the Ravens 323-242, but they couldn’t get out of their own way on offense or on special teams: There was an interception, a lost fumble and they gave up a blocked punt. The Ravens had three scoring drives of less than 25 yards. 
• Week 3: The Browns held the Packers to just 230 yards and they still almost lost to Green Bay because the offense was non-existent for three and a half quarters. But then Joe Flacco came alive to engineer three scoring drives in the final 10 minutes and unlike Week 1, Andre Szmyt actually came through with a game-winning field goal. 

The Browns have faced three very good offenses, but the defense hasn’t blinked: They’ve given up the fewest yards in the NFL, they have the third-most sacks and they’re only surrendering 2.3 yards per rushing attempt, which is the best number in the league. 

If you can get pressure on Jared Goff, the Lions are going to struggle and we saw that a Week 1 game where the Detroit got dominated by the Packers. If I trusted the Browns’ offense (or their special teams) at all I would take Cleveland by DOUBLE DIGITS, but I don’t, so I’m going to say the Browns win for the second straight week on a last second field goal. With the Lions coming off a big win over the Ravens on Monday night, this feels like the perfect spot for a letdown. 

And before Lions fans get upset about my pick, just remember that I apparently have no idea what I’m doing when it comes to picking games involving NFC North teams this year. 

PICK: Browns 20-17 over Lions | Browns +8.5 | Odds via BetMGM. Get up to $1,500 in bonus bets at BetMGM Sportsbook if your first football bet doesn’t win. Click here to get started:

Colts (3-0) at Rams (2-1)

4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, try for free)

The Colts have played three games this year and I have picked them to win EVERY single time. I’m so sold on this team that I’m already working to get “Indiana Jones and the Comeback Crusade” trademarked so that I can sell t-shirts to Colts fans after Indianapolis makes the Super Bowl. Everyone who reads my picks will get a buy one, get one free coupon. 

Although I love to give Daniel Jones all the credit for the Colts’ success this year, the fact of that matter is that a lot of the credit should go to Jonathan Taylor. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best running backs in the NFL and he has actually been healthy this season after missing more than 15 games due to injury over the past three seasons. Taylor is averaging 112.7 rushing yards per game and if he gets going, that opens everything up for Indy’s offense. With their opponents focused on stopping Taylor, Jones has stepped up and played well, which is why the Colts are 3-0. 

However, two of their three wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league: The Dolphins and Titans. This week, they’ll be facing a Rams team that can stop the run and they proved that on Sunday by holding Saquon Barkley to 46 yards. 

The Colts defense has been good this season, but it hasn’t been tested: They’ve face Tua Tagovailoa (Week 1), Bo Nix (Week 2) and Cam Ward (Week 3). Not to knock those guys, but they’re not Matthew Stafford. When you have to go from facing Ward one week to facing Stafford in the next week, that’s like going from sparring against your neighbor in the gym to facing Mike Tyson in his prime. 

I’ve seen enough Indiana Jones movies to know that at some point, the hero has to fail so that he can learn an important lesson and this is where Jones and the Colts will fail for the first time this season. 

PICK: Rams 27-24 over Colts | Colts +4.5 | Odds via DraftKings

Packers (2-1) at Cowboys (1-2)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo, try for free)

I think I finally figured out why the Cowboys haven’t been able to get back to the Super Bowl for the past 30 years and it rhymes with Barry Bones. 

Jerry Jones made the biggest gamble of the NFL offseason back in August when he decided to trade Micah Parsons to the Packers and I know it’s only been three weeks, but that gamble already feels one of the five worst decisions in NFL history. 

If you haven’t watched a Cowboys game yet this season, let me fill you in on how their defense has played without Parsons: 

• They’ve surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL
• They’ve surrendered the third-most total yards in the NFL
• They are the worst in the NFL at stopping teams on third down (opponents are converting 53.6% of their third down attempts)
• Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 9.8 yards per pass. That’s the highest number that any team is giving up in the NFL and it means that opposing teams are nearly getting a first down EVERY TIME they throw a pass (No other team is even surrendering nine yards per pass)
• They’ve given up the second-most touchdown passes in the NFL

When you can’t stop the pass, one thing that can help with that is a generational pass-rusher, but the Cowboys don’t have that because JERRY TRADED HIM AWAY. And the worst part is that he didn’t even ship him off to the AFC. Instead, he sent him to a team that the Cowboys are playing this week. 

Based on how their defense is playing this year, it’s unlikely that the Cowboys are going to be able to slow down Green Bay’s offense, so Dallas’ only chance in this game will be if the offense can hang around in a shootout and I have to think that Micah Parsons is going to personally make sure that doesn’t happen. Also, CeeDee Lamb (ankle) likely won’t be able to play so unless the Packers agree to trade Parsons back to Dallas before Sunday, I don’t see the Cowboys winning this game.

The Cowboys have been in a downward spiral for 30 years and it’s because they keep letting Jerry Jones drive the car. At some point, someone needs to give him a pretend car so he thinks he’s driving, but really, someone else is driving. 

PICK: Packers 31-17 over Cowboys | Packers -6 | Odds via BetMGM

NFL Week 4 picks: All the rest

Seahawks 27-20 over Cardinals
Chargers 23-16 over Giants
Bills 34-17 over Saints
Commanders 30-23 over Falcons
Patriots 24-16 over Panthers
Texans 19-16 over Titans
49ers 19-16 over Jaguars
Ravens 31-23 over Chiefs
Bears 34-27 over Raiders
Jets 22-19 over Dolphins
Broncos 27-17 over Bengals

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Jaguars would beat the Texans and guess what happened? The Jags beat the Texans. This game had 16 penalties, 12 punts, four turnovers (which ALL came in the fourth quarter) and two missed field goals. Basically, it was everything you could have ever wanted out of a game involving two AFC South teams. AFC South football is the Taco Bell of the NFL: I can’t handle it all the time, but when I’m in the mood for it, I have to have it. 

Worst pick: I’ve made some bad decisions in my life, but I have to say, picking the Bengals to beat the Vikings last week might end up going down as my worst decision of the year. The Bengals had a backup quarterback starting a game for the first time in two years and he was playing on the road. That had blowout written all over it, except it was apparently written in a language I don’t understand because I still took the Bengals. EVERYONE at CBS picked the Vikings, except for me. 

At the rate things are going, I might have to ban myself from picking NFC North games for the rest of the season. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 3: 11-5
SU overall: 37-11

Against the spread in Week 3: 7-9
ATS overall: 24-24

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You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably eating some Irish Stew while drinking a pint of Guinness.