NFL Week 4 picks, odds: Carson Wentz and the Vikings defeat Steelers, Broncos blast Bengals

This past week in the NFL was one of the more wild ones I can remember. In fact, it was historical, as Sunday marked the first day where we saw multiple interceptions, blocked field goals and punts returned for touchdowns.

What was the biggest surprise of the week? To me, it was the Atlanta Falcons getting mauled by the Carolina Panthers, 30-0. Or perhaps it was the Los Angeles Rams blowing a 19-point lead late in the second half. Or maybe it was Caleb Williams dominating the Dallas Cowboys. That Cowboys defense may be the worst in the NFL! At least the Tennessee Titans came through for us by not playing well. Brian Callahan’s team not performing is just about the only thing we can rely on these days. 

This week, we get a game in Ireland, Micah Parsons returns to Dallas and there’s another Monday night doubleheader. Here’s a look at what I’m thinking. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:

Top five picks ATS record: 5-10
Overall ATS record: 23-25
Straight up record: 30-18

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (Ireland)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

It’s the NFL’s first-ever regular-season game in Ireland. Did you know that the Vikings are 4-0 in international games? Now you do. 

The Steelers are 2-5 against the spread in their past seven games, and I have concerns about this squad. If you win the turnover battle, 5-1, what do you expect the final score to be? A 14-point win? 20-point win? Try 21-14. The New England Patriots lost four fumbles and threw one interception vs. the Steelers, and were still in position to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. That’s incredibly concerning for Pittsburgh.

As for the Vikings, they are riding high coming off a 48-10 victory against the Cincinnati Bengals. Isaiah Rodgers scored two touchdowns on defense, Jordan Mason rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns and Carson Wentz threw for 173 yards and two touchdowns in his return to the starting lineup. I am fully in on Wentz creating a quarterback controversy in Minnesota, and I think he can do it. J.J. McCarthy did not look like a legitimate NFL starter in his first two games, while Wentz has experience and motivation to resurrect his career under Kevin O’Connell. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin even basically admitted he wish he was facing McCarthy instead of Wentz. 

The pick: Vikings -2.5
Projected score: Vikings 16-12

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-7.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

I think you can make the argument that the Texans have been the most disappointing team in the AFC South this year. They are 0-3, and C.J. Stroud has really struggled. While the Texans may or may not be the most disappointing team in the AFC South, they aren’t the worst team in the AFC South. That title is owned by the Titans.

Coach Brian Callahan is 3-17 in his Titans tenure, and just gave up play-calling duties to the quarterbacks coach. No offense to Bo Hardegree, but he’s not exactly a seasoned play caller either, having called plays in just nine games back in 2023 for the Las Vegas Raiders when they fired Josh McDaniels and offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi midseason. 

Furthermore, the Titans upset the fan base earlier this week by trading starting cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. to the New York Jets. The former fifth-round pick proved to be a steal in his rookie season last year, so what did Tennessee get in return for this young asset? A sixth-round pick … AND the Titans gave up a seventh-rounder in the deal as well. I mean, what?

The Texans-Titans rivalry is deeper than people think, but this is a great opportunity for the Texans to get back on track at home. 

The pick: Texans -7.5
Projected score: Texans 24-14

Washington Commanders (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

I’m going against logic here. The Falcons suffered what was probably the most embarrassing loss of Week 3 vs. the Panthers, while the Commanders coasted to an easy win against the Las Vegas Raiders with Marcus Mariota under center. We don’t know if Jayden Daniels will be back at quarterback this week, but Terry McLaurin is likely out, and then running back Bill Croskey-Merritt missed practice Wednesday with a knee injury. 

There’s no way the Falcons will play as poorly at home as they did last week vs. Carolina. Michael Penix Jr. is 2 of 17 passing when it comes to throws of 15 air yards this season, which is worst in the NFL. Atlanta fired its receivers coach and is moving Zac Robinson down from the booth. The Falcons are going to try to simplify the game plan for him, and get Bijan Robinson and maybe Tyler Allgeier more involved. 

Atlanta is 1-2 despite out-gaining opponents by 334 yards this season. I have the Falcons rebounding at home in Week 4. 

The pick: Falcons +1.5
Projected score: Falcons 28-23

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Micah Parsons returns to Dallas to face his former team — which is banged-up with a capital “B.” Star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb probably won’t play due to his ankle injury, plus offensive linemen Tyler Booker and Cooper Beebe have already been ruled out. Injuries are one reason why I’m taking the Packers. The other is this Dallas defense. 

The Cowboys rank bottom six in yards allowed per game (397.7) and points allowed per game (30.7). Jordan Love should have fun, as over the past two games, the Cowboys secondary has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71% of their throws for 360 yards per game, seven touchdowns and one interception. 

The Packers have won five straight meetings vs. the Cowboys, including playoffs, and 10 out of the last 11. Additionally, coach Matt LaFleur is 12-3 ATS on “Sunday Night Football,” which is the best mark by a head coach since 2000 with a minimum of 10 appearances on “SNF.”

The pick: Packers -6.5
Projected score: Packers 27-17

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Broncos are due for a massive game against a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team that just lost 48-10 to the Vikings. 

Bo Nix hasn’t played well, there’s no getting around that. I went back and watched all of his pass attempts vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, and while I’m no quarterback expert, I thought his mechanics were off. Going off-platform when it wasn’t necessary, a weird jump-pass and multiple overthrows. That’s fixable. Nix completed a season-low 14 passes on a season-low 25 attempts for a season-low 153 yards. He missed three deep balls that could have been touchdowns — meaning the Broncos are one completion and one bogus flag in Indy away from being undefeated. After this blowout, maybe the Bengals will call up Kirk Cousins. 

The pick: Broncos -7.5
Projected score: Broncos 30-20

Other Week 4 picks

Seahawks (-1.5) 23-21 over Cardinals
Eagles (-3.5) 27-23 over Buccaneers
Bills 28-14 over Saints (+15.5)
Lions (-9.5) 28-17 over Browns
Chargers 23-21 over Giants (+6.5)
Patriots (-5.5) 20-14 over Panthers
Rams (-3.5) 30-24 over Colts
Jaguars (+3.5) 27-24 over 49ers
Bears (+1.5) 19-16 over Raiders
Chiefs (+2.5) 26-23 over Ravens
Dolphins (-2.5) 17-13 over Jets