UFC Fight Night prediction — Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes: Fight card, start time, odds, live stream

There could be a new UFC light heavyweight contender after Saturday. Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes headlines UFC Fight Night in Perth, Australia, one week before 205-pound champion Magomed Ankalaev fights Alex Pereira at UFC 320.

Ulberg (13-1) is a breath of fresh air in the light heavyweight division. Ulberg, currently ranked No. 3 by the promotion, is the only fighter in the top seven who hasn’t fought for a title. He’s won eight straight fights with five stoppages. Most recently, he outpointed former champion Jan Blachowicz. Ulberg believes a title fight is on the horizon, but his sole focus currently is ending Reyes’ Cinderella comeback.

“After this fight, the UFC will crunch numbers, I’m pretty sure, and hopefully we can get that shot,” Ulberg told CBS Sports. “Right now, my mission is to kill Reyes.

“We’re not going up against a Reyes who wants to get a fight in or a quick paycheck. We’re going up against a very motivated, inspired Dominick Reyes, who wants to stake his name again for that title. This is a great test for me.”

Reyes (15-4) is one of MMA’s most compelling stories presently. Starting his career a perfect 12-0, Reyes beat dominant UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones in the eyes of just about everyone but the three judges scoring it. Reyes’ stock went up in a controversial loss to the champ, but he failed to capitalize on it. Reyes was knocked out in his subsequent fights, each faster than the last, sending his career into free fall. After taking 19 months off, Reyes remedied things with three KO wins. Now, he’s on the cusp of another title shot.

“I’ve matured incredibly as a fighter,” Reyes told CBS Sports’ Brian Campbell. “My approach is completely different, and my stress is far less. I don’t worry about every little thing. I know I don’t need to be great in every training session. I need to be great on Fight Night. 

“I’m not back, I’m better. It’s crazy that I’m getting better every single day. It’s a trippy thing to see. I’ve been in the UFC for nine years, and I’m getting better every day. I look at myself as a younger fighter and think, ‘Damn, I would’ve smoked that kid.’”

Check out the full interview with Dominick Reyes below.

Ulberg vs. Reyes is a fun main event, but that’s about all there is to look forward to as far as storylines. Perth’s main card is packed with Oceanic fighters. Aussies Jimmy Crute and Jake Matthews, both of whom are on the comeback, fight separate opponents.

Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday, with the latest odds before we get to a prediction and pick on the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Sept. 27 | Start time: 10 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: RAC Arena — Perth, Australia
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes: This is a close fight stylistically. Ulberg and Reyes are strikers with KO power and solid fight IQ. They have comparable striking offense, striking defense, and takedown defense stats. Ulberg has shown more offensive takedown success, but it’s negligible. Unable to identify the more skilled fighter, we’ll instead examine their liabilities. Reyes’ comeback is inspiring, but weathered chins don’t heal easily. Beating Dustin Jacoby, Anthony Smith, and Nikita Krylov doesn’t do much to ease those concerns. Ulberg has serious power and has taken less damage. That’s enough for me to think he’ll get the KO in 25 minutes, even if I’m concerned about Ulberg’s lack of five-round experience or stoppage wins past Round 1. Ulberg via KO2