NFL longshot picks, Week 4, 2025 odds, player props, predictions: Model targeting Lions Over 32.5 team total

Anyone who was concerned about the Lions’ offense after Week 1 can breathe easier after the last two weeks. After scoring just 13 points in Week 1, Detroit is averaging 45 points over its last two games. The Lions, who had the No. 1 scoring offense last year, returned the majority of their on-field talent from last season, and given the offense’s success in recent weeks, the SportsLine Machine Learning Model expects scoring outbursts to continue in Week 4. The model expects the Lions to blow past their team total listed at sportsbooks, and sees value in backing the Lions’ alternate team total of Over 32.5 points, which can be played at +230 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Detroit hosts Cleveland on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, and the Lions are favored by 10 points. 

The model has Lions Over 32.5 team points as one of its top Week 4 NFL longshot bets for those looking for a larger payday when online sports betting. The model also sees value in Ravens veteran tight end Mark Andrews scoring a touchdown, as he did twice last week, and Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith finding the end zone for the second straight week as Week 4 NFL longshot picks with odds longer than 2-1 for Week 4 anytime touchdown scorers for NFL betting.

SportsLine’s Machine Learning Model can help you find value to add to your Week 4 NFL picks at various sportsbooks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code, where new users receive 20 100% profit boost tokens with the code CBS20X:

Built using cutting-edge artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques by SportsLine’s Data Science team, AI Predictions and AI Ratings are generated for each player prop. 

Best Week 4 NFL longshot picks:

• DeVonta Smith, Eagles, anytime touchdown scorer (+240)
• Lions Over 32.5 alternate team total points (+230)
• Mark Andrews, Ravens, anytime touchdown scorer (+210)

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DeVonta Smith, Eagles, anytime touchdown scorer (+240)

After zero passing touchdowns for the Philadelphia offense over the first two contests, Jalen Hurts had three passing touchdowns last week, including a 4-yard touchdown to Smith. The Eagles fell behind early and needed to throw to mount their comeback, which they eventually accomplished with a 33-26 victory over the Rams, and Philadelphia faces another capable offense this week against Tampa Bay. Smith had a career-high eight touchdowns last season, but with seven scores in each of the prior two years, he’s still been a touchdown threat throughout his career.

Smith leads the Eagles with 15 receptions as one of Hurts’ favorite targets, and at +240 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, compared to being priced at +220 or lower on other betting apps, FanDuel is the place to make this play.

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Lions Over 32.5 alternate team total points (+230)

The Lions have gone Over this total in back-to-back games, scoring 38 points against the Ravens last week after posting 52 points against the Bears the week before, averaging 45 points per game over that span. Detroit has the No. 2 scoring offense (34.3 points per game) this season, averaging even more through three weeks than it did when leading the NFL at 33.1 ppg last season. The Lions have ranked in the top three in scoring offense in each of the previous three seasons, and they’ve shown that even without Ben Johnson calling the plays, they still have the potential to be the best offense in football.

Sunday won’t be an easy matchup against the Browns, however, as Cleveland held the Bengals to 17 points with a healthy Joe Burrow and the Packers to 13 points so far this season. But the Ravens scored 41 points, aided by a defensive touchdown and two forced turnovers, against Cleveland, and the Lions have averaged a forced turnover in each contest this season. The Lions team total over/under at FanDuel is listed at 27.5 points, but with the model projecting 33 points for the Lions on Sunday, it likes the value of taking Detroit’s alternate team total points Over 32.5 at +230 odds. 

New users can use the latest FanDuel promo code to receive $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 wins. Claim this bonus here.

Mark Andrews Ravens, anytime touchdown scorer (+210)

After being held to just two receptions for seven yards over the first two weeks of the season, Andrews had a vintage performance in Week 3, finishing with six receptions for 91 yards and two touchdowns. He secured all six of his targets as a featured part of the Baltimore offense, both early and late in the contest. Andrews has consistently been a red zone target for Lamar Jackson, as even when Andrews posted just 3.2 receptions and 39.6 receiving yards per game last season, his lowest totals since his rookie season, the eight-year tight end still had a career-high 11 touchdowns.

The Ravens have the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 37 ppg this season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Andrews to score a touchdown this weekend. Baltimore plays Kansas City in a can’t-miss matchup on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+, and after last week’s performance, there’s optimism Andrews will be featured in the game plan again. Andrews has +210 odds as an anytime TD scorer at DraftKings, compared odds of +200 or lower at other betting apps. 

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Want more Week 4 NFL picks?

You’ve seen the model’s NFL longshot picks for Week 4. Now, get NFL Week 4 projections for every NFL spread, total and player prop at SportsLine.

Also at SportsLine:

You can also see the model’s best bets for every Week 4 NFL game, including Eagles vs. Buccaneers, Chargers vs. Giants and Ravens vs. Chiefs. Finally, SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman, who is 10-2 (+785.5) over his last 12 NFL picks, has locked in his top Week 4 NFL picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bets.

Want more huge paydays? The model has also built a five-leg Week 4 NFL parlay that would pay over $8,000 for a $10 bet. Check out the model’s Week 4 NFL parlay only at SportsLine. Visit SportsLine to see the parlay.