Agent’s Take: Is Saquon Barkley running on empty? Eagles RB’s slow start expected norm after historic season

Saquon Barkley had a season for the ages in 2024 as the Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LIX. He became the ninth player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. Barkley’s league-leading 2,005 yards on 345 rushing attempts were eighth on the all-time list. His 5.8 yards per carry were fourth in the NFL. Barkley added 278 yards on 33 receptions to lead the NFL with 2,283 yards from scrimmage (combined rushing and receiving yards). His 15 total touchdowns (13 rushing and two receiving) were tied for seventh in the league.

Barkley would have had a legitimate chance at breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season record of 2,105 yards rushing set in 1984 if the Eagles hadn’t rested him in the regular-season finale against the New York Giants. His 2,504 yards rushing combined in the regular and postseason are an NFL record.

The Eagles surprised the NFL world in March by extending the three-year, $37.75 million contract, averaging $12,583,333 per year (worth as much as $46.75 million through incentives and salary escalators), Barkley received during 2024 free agency. The 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year’s contract was set to expire after the 2026 season. 

Barkley became the NFL’s first $20 million-per-year running back with a two-year, $41.2 million contract extension worth up to $56.2 million through incentives and salary escalators. The deal has a running back-record $36 million fully guaranteed at signing.

The 2025 season has been a different story. Barkley has gotten off to an extremely slow start. He is tied for 20th in the NFL with 237 yards rushing through four games. Barkley’s 77 rushing attempts are tied for the second most in the league. He is averaging a career-low 3.1 yards per carry. Barkley’s season high is the 88 yards rushing he had against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2. His longest run has been 16 yards.

At this stage last season, Barkley’s 435 yards rushing were third in the NFL. He was averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Barkley already had two 100-yard games. Two of his 73 carries were for more than 50 yards.

Tough act to follow

Some sort of decline in Barkley’s production was to be expected. That’s been the case with the other eight running backs in the season after hitting the 2,000-yard rushing mark. None of the eight were able to crack 1,500 yards rushing the next season. Barry Sanders came the closest with 1,491 yards on the ground in 1998.

The other eight cumulatively averaged 5.6 yards per carry when rushing for 2,000 yards. It was 4.3 yards per carry in the following season. Adrian Peterson’s 4.5 yards per carry in 2012 is the highest when he had 1,266 yards rushing while playing 14 games. Nobody in this group won the rushing title the next season.

The other eight were still heavily featured in the following season, averaging just under 21 carries for a little less than 89 yards per game. It was preceded by slightly more than 23 carries for just under 130 yards per game. Barkley’s 2024 season was included in this calculation. 

The average production in the next season is 1,079 yards rushing while playing in 12 games. Barkley is barely on pace for 1,000 yards rushing with 1,007 in 17 games.

How rushers fared following 2,000-yard season

*-4 games played; #-8 games played; ^-through 4 games

Part of Barkley’s decline can be attributed to the defenses he is facing this season. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, 32.47% of Barkley’s carries are with eight or more defenders in the box. It was 20.58% last year. By contrast, Derrick Henry, who was second in the NFL with 1,921 yards rushing, had eight or more defenders in the box 33.23% of the time.

Philadelphia’s offensive line hasn’t been nearly as effective. According to Pro Football Reference, Barkley had a running back-best 3.8 yards rushing before contact per attempt in 2024. It’s down to 1.7 yards this season. The league average in 2025 is 2.4 yards. 

Health of the offensive line is a contributing factor. Various injuries seem to be taking a toll on three-time Pro Bowl offensive guard Landon Dickerson. Perennial All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson has exited the last two games because of injury.

Barkley isn’t making the most of his rushing opportunities either. He is averaging minus 0.53 yards rushing over expected per attempt, according to Next Gen Stats. Barkley ranked second in this metric last season with 1.61 yards rushing over expected per attempt.

Run or done?

The good news for the Eagles is being one of two NFL teams, along with the Buffalo Bills, that are still undefeated with a 4-0 record despite Barkley’s struggles. Without stellar special teams play, the Eagles could be 2-2. 

It’s crucial for Barkley and the running game to eventually get untracked for the Eagles to have a realistic chance of repeating as Super Bowl champions. Philadelphia is more reliant on running the ball than other NFL teams. The 621 rushing attempts in 2024 were easily the NFL’s most. Philadelphia’s 448 pass attempts were also the fewest. It’s been the same recipe in 2025. Philadelphia’s 101 pass attempts are last in the league while having the second most rushing attempts with 131.

Barkley may have put it best after Sunday’s 31-25 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. “The way we played in the second half this week and the first half last week — especially on offense — we’re going to have a hard time winning football games,” Barkley said. “We’ve just got to continue to improve, continue to jell, find, I hate using this word ‘identity’ in the offense and the running game.”