Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona State puts double-digit teams in play to reach the Big 12 title game

There’s no conference with smaller margins than the Big 12. Look no further than Tempe to illustrate that point.

No. 7 Texas Tech looked like a true national championship contender ahead of a road showdown against Arizona State. The Red Raiders had beaten Big 12 opponents — all with winning records — by an average margin of 24.3 points per game. Arizona State, for its part, was coming off a 32-point road loss to Utah and had won three-point squeakers in its other two Big 12 matchups.

Yet down went the Red Raiders: Arizona State 26, Texas Tech 22.

The circumstances weren’t ideal for Texas Tech, which played without starting quarterback Behren Morton. But the Red Raiders, thanks to the tens of millions they spent in the portal, were supposed to be able to overcome injuries thanks to the depth they created via the transfer market. They were the one Big 12 team that stood above the rest from a talent and depth perspective.

But it wasn’t enough to beat Arizona State, which put together a game-winning drive in the final minutes to pull the upset, largely thanks to the star duo of quarterback Sam Leavitt and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. That pair connected four times on the final drive for 55 yards, including a 33-yard completion on fourth down to extend the game. 

The loss doesn’t knock Texas Tech out of the College Football Playoff race, nor does it eliminate its path to Arlington for the Big 12 title game.

It does, however, put over half the conference in play to earn a spot in Arlington. That is not an exaggeration.

BYU and Cincinnati are the only Big 12 teams without a loss, and the Cougars have one of the toughest games of the season on Saturday night against Utah.

There’s a real chance that by Sunday morning Cincinnati, which draws Oklahoma State this week, will be alone atop the league — just like everyone expected.

Look at all the team’s that will have two or fewer losses in conference play ahead of Week 9:

• BYU
• Texas Tech
• Cincinnati
• Houston
• Utah
• Arizona State
• Iowa State
• TCU
• Baylor
• Kansas State
• Kansas

That’s 11 teams! 

Only the SEC can claim anything close to that sort of parity. But even that league still has teams that are expected to separate. Georgia and Alabama’s talent usually wins out in the end. 

But now that Texas Tech has a loss, everyone in the Big 12 looks beatable. 

Cincinnati posted wins in the final minutes over Kansas and Iowa State. BYU has one-possession wins over Colorado and Arizona. The Sun Devils, as mentioned before, have a pair of one-possession wins over TCU and Baylor. 

Everyone is vulnerable. Everyone is a contender. 

Texas Tech’s loss does, however,  put the Big 12 in danger of being a one-bid league for the playoff. Even if Texas Tech runs the table — still very possible — it seems likely whoever else makes it to the Big 12 championship game will have at least two losses, and a three-loss Big 12 runner-up is not getting into a 12-team bracket. 

But that’s a concern for later if you’re Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark.

For now, the Big 12 is the most competitive and unpredictable autonomy league in a season nation-wide that’s already been defined by parity.