College Football Playoff Rankings reaction: Why Miami — ACC’s highest-rated team — won’t make the field

When the second round of College Football Playoff Rankings were released on Tuesday, Miami found itself slotted as the top team in the ACC. Because of the placement, the Hurricanes were mocked into CFP bracket projections and graphics as the projected ACC champion as the 11-seed. 

There’s only one problem: Miami probably can’t win the ACC and secure a bid for the league. 

On paper, the Hurricanes have been the best team in the ACC by a wide margin. Miami beat No. 10 Notre Dame, No. 25 South Florida and Florida in nonconference play. They rate No. 13 in the SP+ ratings and feature one of the nation’s best pass rushes behind defensive ends Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. 

“The conversation with Miami has been about their consistency, especially on offense,” CFP selection chair Mack Rhoades said. “The head-to-head win with Notre Dame comes up. Seven straight (for Notre Dame), better defensively than what they were at the beginning of the year. We’ve got great respect for Miami. When you think about the eye test, they’re really talented on both sides of the football.” 

But after suffering stunning losses against Louisville and SMU, their pathway to contending for the College Football Playoff becomes awfully complicated. Despite the nonconference victories, Miami sits with a 3-2 record in ACC play. There are five ACC teams with only one conference loss. The other two-loss team, Louisville, has a head-to-head victory over them that would provide a critical tiebreaker. 

Because of the difficult path, Miami has the seventh best odds to win the ACC, according to SportsLine projections. The Hurricanes are given only a 2.9% chance to win the league because of how they bungled their conference schedule. 

Best chance to win ACC

Because of the massive 17-team ACC with complicated tiebreakers, it’s highly unlikely that the best teams in the conference will contend for the conference title. There are five teams ranked in the CFP Rankings; amazingly, two of the top three teams in odds to win the ACC are unranked anyway, which could throw the ACC’s bid into chaos. The Hurricanes are the only team with even a prayer of contending for an at-large, and they still rank behind five other two-loss teams. 

“We really look at each team on its own,” Rhoades said. “We don’t look at conferences. We look at each of the teams. I think for the ACC, when you look at their nonconference schedules, there’s really no signature wins other than Miami vs. Notre Dame.”

SMU has the second-best odds to win the conference. They also have three terrible losses to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest. Duke’s situation is even uglier. The Blue Devils are 5-4 with losses to Illinois, Tulane, Georgia Tech and UConn. 

Let’s keep in mind, five conference champions are guaranteed spots in the College Football Playoff. There’s no rule mandating that four of them have to be from the Power Four. No. 24 South Florida already ranks ahead of Duke in the CFP Rankings, just like Mountain West champ Boise State ranked ahead of ACC champ Clemson last year. 

If the Blue Devils won the league, a 12-1 Sun Belt champion James Madison would suddenly become an odd and unsettling factor. In the SP+ ratings, the Dukes rate ahead of Duke. There’s no telling whether the internal metrics used by the College Football Playoff committee agree. And it could create a disaster for the ACC. 

Granted, SportsLine projections do give Miami a 12.7% chance to make the College Football Playoff, which is fourth in the ACC. That projection primarily leans on them as an at-large team. The Hurricanes should finish the season 10-2 with a road win against No. 22 Pittsburgh, which would give them a fairly strong resume. Miami would need plenty of help, but a bid for the Hurricanes isn’t completely off the table. 

But exiting nonconference play, Miami seemed like a virtual lock to reach the postseason. The Hurricanes ranked No. 3 in the AP Top 25 entering ACC play. At the time, they didn’t have a single other ranked opponent on the schedule after defeating then-No. 18 Florida State. They went on to blow close results against Louisville and SMU, which has been an unfortunate hallmark of the Mario Cristobal era. 

When the dust clears, the best team in the ACC doesn’t have a realistic chance at earning an auto-bid for the conference, and they only have themselves to blame.