Projecting the 2025 NFL playoff field: AFC has a surprise top seed, 49ers sneak in, Bills’ AFC East reign ends

With just eight weeks to go in the season, the NFL playoff race is going to be heating up this week and that’s because there are several big games on the schedule in Week 11

One of the biggest ones will be taking place in Denver, where the Kansas City Chiefs will be trying to keep their division title hopes alive in an AFC West showdown with the Broncos. There’s also a huge game in the NFC with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Seattle Seahawks. 

So how will those two games impact the playoff race? Glad you asked. We’re going to break it all down right now. 

To help you figure out who’s going to make the playoffs this year, we’re going to be publishing a projection every week for the rest of the season. These projections will be based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh will plug some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulate the rest of the season. Using those numbers, we’ll project the 14 teams that we expect to make the playoffs, plus we’ll give you the postseason chances for all 32 teams. 

With that in mind, let’s get to the projection. 

AFC playoff projection

Projections via SportsLine

1. New England Patriots (AFC East champion)

The computer must be having a flashback to Tom Brady’s days in New England, because it has the Patriots (8-2) earning the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. A big reason the Patriots are projected to finish at the top is because they have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL. Out of their final seven games, they will only face one team that’s currently over .500 (Bills in Week 16). 

2. Denver Broncos (AFC West champion)

The Broncos (8-2) are being projected to win the AFC West and they have a chance to land a knockout punch on Sunday against the Chiefs. Right now, the computer is giving Kansas City a 22.4% chance of winning the division, but that will drop down to 7.9% with a loss to Denver. As for the Broncos, they currently have a 52.6% chance of winning the division, but that will shoot up to 70.6% if they beat Kansas City. 

3. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South champion)

Colts fans might want to go ahead and get their division title shirts printed out, because the computer thinks Indianapolis (8-2) is essentially a lock to win the AFC South. Right now, Indy’s chances of winning the division are sitting at 86%, which is the highest of any first-place team in the AFC. 

4. Baltimore Ravens (AFC North champion)

After the Steelers loss to the Chargers in Week 10, the computer decided to jump off of Pittsburgh’s bandwagon. Heading into Week 11, the computer now views the Ravens (4-5) as the favorite to win the AFC North. The Ravens have a 55.5% chance of winning the division while the Steelers’ chances are sitting at 41.4%. 

5. Buffalo Bills (Wild card 1)

The Bills’ five-year reign atop the AFC East is going to come to an end this year, according to the computer. Right now, the Bills are being given just a 21.8% chance of winning the division following their shocking loss to the Dolphins in Week 10. The biggest problem for the Bills is that they’re now 2-2 in the division, so even if they beat the Patriots in Week 15, New England would still hold the division tiebreaker over Buffalo as long as the Patriots finished 5-1 (They’re currently 2-0 in AFC East play). 

6. Los Angeles Chargers (Wild card 2)

The computer doesn’t think the Chargers have a great chance of winning the AFC West, but it does view Los Angeles as a near lock for the playoffs. According to the computer. the Chargers have an 80.9% chance of getting into the postseason.

7. Kansas City Chiefs (Wild card 3)

The Chiefs have won the AFC West for nine straight years, but the computer doesn’t think that streak is going to continue this year. However, the computer definitely isn’t giving up on Kansas City: The Chiefs currently have an 8% chance of winning the Super Bowl, which is tied with the Colts for the highest mark in the AFC. 

Other AFC playoff chances: Steelers (51.3%), Jaguars (33.7%), Texans (23.2%), Bengals (3.4%), Dolphins (0.3%), Browns (0.2%), Raiders (0.0%), Jets (0.0%), Titans (0.0%).
Note: The Raiders, Jets and Titans aren’t eliminated, but their odds are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them.

AFC wild-card round projection
(7) Chiefs at (2) Broncos
(6) Chargers at (3) Colts
(5) Bills at (4) Ravens
Bye: Patriots

NFC playoff projection

Projections via SportsLine

1. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West champion)

The NFL’s most unpredictable division right now is the NFC West. The computer views the race as a coin toss between the Rams (7-2) and Seahawks. Los Angeles has a 48.8% chance of winning the division while Seattle sits at 47.9%. The two teams play this week and if the Rams win, their chances will shoot up to 69.6%. On the other hand, if the Seahawks win, their chances of winning the NFC West will improve to 72.1%. 

2. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East champion)

Every team in the NFC East is still mathematically alive to win the division, but we’re going to ignore that, because the computer says this race is over. The Eagles (7-2) have a 97.7% chance of winning the division, and if that happens, it will make them the division’s first repeat champion since 2004. The computer is giving the Eagles a 9.9% chance of winning it all, which is the highest of any team in the NFL. 

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South champion)

The Bucs (6-3) only have a 1.5 game lead in the NFC South over the Panthers, but don’t tell that to the computer, because it thinks the race is over. According to the computer, the Buccaneers have a 97.6% chance of winning the division.

4. Detroit Lions (NFC North champion)

Green Bay’s loss to Philadelphia on Monday night threw a wrench into the computer’s NFC North projection. The Packers (5-3-1) were projected to win the division last week, but now, that honor belongs to the Lions (6-3), who have a 59.5% chance of taking home the NFC North crown. With their loss to Philly, the Packers chances dropped from 44.1% down to 27.2%. 

5. Seattle Seahawks (Wild card 1)

For the second straight year, it’s starting to look like Sam Darnold is going to win a lot of games only to once again get stuck playing in the wild-card round. Last year, Darnold’s 14-3 Vikings went to the playoffs as a wild card team. This year, the computer has the Seahawks (7-2) finishing 12-5 and playing in the wild-card round. 

6. Green Bay Packers (Wild card 2)

The Packers loss on Monday night definitely hurt their chances of winning the division, but the computer still loves them to make the playoffs. The Packers currently have a 72.8% chance of getting in, but it won’t be easy. The Packers have to play three of their final four games on the road and their only home game in the stretch is against the Ravens. 

7. San Francisco 49ers (Wild card 3)

The 49ers (6-4) are banged up, but the computer still likes their chances of earning the NFC’s final wild card spot. San Francisco has a 69.1% chance of getting into. According to the computer, their only real threat is the Bears (6-3), who have a 54.9% chance of getting in. The Bears and 49ers will play each other in Week 17 in a game that will likely have huge playoff ramifications. 

Other NFC Playoff Chances: Bears (54.9%), Cowboys (7.9%), Panthers (5.3%), Vikings (4.5%), Falcons (2.9%), Cardinals (1.0%), Commanders (0.8%), Giants (0.0%), Saints (0.0%).

NFC wild-card round projection
(7) 49ers at (2) Eagles
(6) Packers at (3) Buccaneers
(5) Seahawks at (4) Lions
Bye: Rams