NFL Week 11 picks, odds, best bets: Can Giants upset Packers with Jameis Winston? Are the Eagles vulnerable?

I truly believe NFL Week 11 could go down as the best week of the regular season. We get the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Buffalo Bills, a rematch of that magical matchup between Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers from a few weeks ago, a battle between the two best teams in the NFC with the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, and a “Sunday Night Football” showdown between the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles.

As for my picks, I’m really close to just saying ignore the top picks and follow the “Other Week 11 picks” at the bottom. Or just follow who I have winning straight up. I’m 83-66 against the spread and a ridiculous 103-45-1 straight up while being 23-27 on my top picks. 

I’m sorry, but I thought the Carolina Panthers could cover the spread against the worst against-the-spread team in the NFL last week and that the Pittsburgh Steelers could take advantage of one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Nope.

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

• Top five picks ATS record: 23-27
• Overall ATS record: 83-66
• Straight up record: 103-45-1

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL Week 11 games on FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins (-2.5) (Madrid)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Commanders have lost four straight games by 21 points, which tied the longest single-season streak since 1970. I don’t care that Dan Quinn is taking over defensive play-calling duties from Joe Whitt, because this secondary can’t cover anyone and Daron Payne has been suspended after punching Amon-Ra St. Brown in the face.

Washington hasn’t covered the spread in five straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. With the number under a field goal, I’ll take the team that just upset Josh Allen and the Bills. De’Von Achane is already one of the most explosive players in NFL history, and Jaylen Waddle has looked great as well.

The pick: Dolphins -2.5
Projected score: Dolphins 23-17

Green Bay Packers (-7) at New York Giants 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

This was a great week for the Giants. Not only did Brian Daboll get fired, but the team promoted Jameis Winston over Russell Wilson. With Mike Kafka now in charge, it’s time for the interim bump!

The Tennessee Titans didn’t get the interim bump when they fired Brian Callahan earlier this year, but that’s just because they’re the Tennessee Titans. This Giants team has some talent, and I’m excited to see what Winston can do to spark the offense. I’m not going to take New York to win this game straight up, but I’m going to take the Giants to cover the spread vs. a team that lost to the Panthers in Week 9 and then scored just seven points at home in prime time on Monday night. The Packers are 1-6 against the spread over the last seven games.

The pick: Giants +7
Projected score: Packers 21-20

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

This pick is more fading the Cardinals because of their injuries. The past few days have been disastrous for the wide receiving corps, as Zay Jones tore his Achilles, Marvin Harrison Jr. is recovering from appendicitis and Simi Fehoko suffered an arm injury that landed him on injured reserve. That means Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Xavier Weaver and Andre Baccellia are the only healthy receivers for Jacoby Brissett. 

It’s ironic since the 49ers have been the walking wounded all year, but their injury report is actually shorter than Arizona’s! The Cardinals have won just one of their last seven games, while the 49ers are 3-0 against the spread following a loss this season. 

The pick: 49ers -3
Projected score: 49ers 27-20

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I’ve said it several times this week. When it comes to this game, I’m taking the more explosive team. I’m taking the Lions to outscore the Eagles — who managed just one touchdown last week against the Packers. A.J. Brown is complaining about the offense, and I would be too. 

The Lions are an NFL-best 12-6 against the spread as an underdog over the past four seasons, and Dan Campbell has the best cover percentage (65%) by a head coach since 1970. Detroit is also an NFL-best 13-2 in prime time over the last four seasons. I simply have more faith in the Lions’ weapons with Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.

The pick: Lions +2.5
Projected score: Lions 33-28

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

This will be the first time the Cowboys take the field without their brother Marshawn Kneeland following his tragic passing. This Dallas defense has been one of the worst units in the NFL this season, but I bet it has its most impressive performance of the year in Vegas to honor its teammate. 

Similar to Lions at Eagles, I’m going to take the better offense to simply outscore the other. Dallas has averaged the most points per game (29.2) by a team with a negative point differential (-14) through nine games in NFL history. Can Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty keep up? The Raiders have scored 29 points just once all season. I believe Dak Prescott’s group comes out firing and covers the spread. 

The pick: Cowboys -3.5
Projected score: Cowboys 28-21

Other Week 11 picks

Patriots (-12.5) 30-10 over Jets
Falcons (-3.5) 21-16 over Panthers
Chargers (-3) 24-20 over Jaguars
Steelers 28-24 over Bengals (+5.5)
Bills 29-27 over Buccaneers (+5.5)
Vikings (-2.5) 28-23 over Bears
Texans (-5.5) 24-17 over Titans
Rams (-3) 30-24 over Seahawks
Ravens (-7.5) 27-17 over Browns
Chiefs 24-21 over Broncos (+3.5)