Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction, odds, line, time, how to watch: 2025 NFL Madrid Game picks by proven model

The Washington Commanders will look to snap a five-game losing streak when they battle the Miami Dolphins in the 2025 NFL Madrid Game on Sunday morning. Washington is coming off a 44-22 loss to the Detroit Lions, while Miami stunned the Buffalo Bills 30-13 in Week 10. The Commanders (3-7), who are third in the NFC East, are 2-1 against AFC opponents. The Dolphins (3-7), who are third in the AFC East, are 1-1 against NFC foes. Washington will be without Jayden Daniels (elbow) and Terry McLaurin (quad).

Kickoff from Santiago Bernabeu Stadium is set for 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network. The Dolphins lead the all-time series 10-6, including a 45-15 win in 2023. The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Commanders vs. Dolphins odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before making any Dolphins vs. Commanders picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 11 on a 47-32 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Commanders vs. Dolphins. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Dolphins vs. Commanders:

Why the Dolphins can cover

Veteran quarterback Tua Tagovailoa leads the Miami offense. In 10 games, he has completed 68.2% of his passes for 1,952 yards and 17 touchdowns with 13 interceptions and an 87.6 rating. In last week’s win over Buffalo, he completed 15 of 21 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns with two picks. He completed 20 of 26 passes for 205 yards and four touchdowns in a 34-10 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Oct. 26.

Third-year veteran running back De’Von Achane powers the Dolphins’ ground attack. He has carried 143 times for 780 yards (5.5 average) and five touchdowns. Achane has eight explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 59, with 32 first-down conversions. He also has a team-high 49 receptions for 325 yards (6.6 average) and four touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Commanders can cover

With Daniels out indefinitely, veteran Marcus Mariota gets another start at quarterback. In six games, he has completed 72 of 110 passes (65.5%) for 852 yards and six touchdowns with four interceptions and a 91.9 rating. In last week’s loss to the Lions, he completed 16 of 22 passes for 213 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed five times for 22 yards. In a 28-7 loss at Kansas City on Oct. 27, he completed 21 of 30 passes for 213 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions.

Another weapon on offense is running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt. In 10 games, he has carried 105 times for 470 yards (4.5 average) and four touchdowns. He has two explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 42, with 24 first-down conversions. In a 27-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, he carried 14 times for 111 yards and two touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine.

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How to make Commanders vs. Dolphins picks

SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total, projecting 52 combined points. It also says one side of the spread is the better value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Dolphins vs. Commanders, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Commanders vs. Dolphins spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.