Wild coaching carousel enters final weekend: Where do Florida, Ole Miss stand? What’s up with Auburn?

The Sunday after the college football regular season concludes typically comes with a flurry of activity, which kicks the coaching carousel into overdrive. But this year’s “Black Sunday” might end up being much quieter than usual due to the volume of jobs (14) that came open before season’s end. 

Four schools — Maryland, Wisconsin, Baylor and Florida State — so far have opted to sit this coaching carousel out with similar versions of a statement that expressed the following sentiments:

• The buyout money owed to their coach is too steep.
• They’d rather not get into a cycle that includes Florida, LSU, Auburn and Penn State.
• They plan to pump more money into their roster compensation infrastructure and hope for improvement next year. 

In previous years, the canary in the coal mine for a coach’s future was firing his coordinators, which is seen as the pound of flesh given to angry fans as the head coach earns one last gasp. Running it back with a more expensive roster is the new version for schools that might not have the funds for a buyout, despite the desire to make a move. 

One big job worth monitoring in that light is Michigan State. The seat is scorching hot in East Lansing, but industry sources aren’t sure the Spartans will open due to the steep nature — around $33 million — of Jonathan Smith’s buyout. 

Other jobs we’re monitoring

Kentucky, NC State and TCU have come up to varying degrees this season. Things seem to be trending toward safety with each of them thanks to late-season pushes. But there is pressure in Lexington and Raleigh on their long-time coaches — Mark Stoops and Dave Doeren, respectively — with a lot of questions about their rosters moving forward with the portal looming. 

TCU might surprise some in terms of danger territory, only a few years removed from playing for a national championship. The Horned Frogs are just 21-15 since and have faded down the stretch this year after a once-promising start. While moving on from Sonny Dykes is not expected after a win last week over a ranked Houston team, TCU is a job industry sources have pointed to as one to watch over the last few weeks. 

As for the Group of Five, there are several jobs on the radar in speaking with industry sources: Georgia State, UTEP, Coastal Carolina and Louisiana Tech. 

Those are varying degrees of hot. Things have cooled at both Coastal Carolina and Louisiana Tech midway through the season as both teams have crossed the bowl-eligibility threshold. Derek Mason will also get another year at Middle Tennessee. Georgia State and UTEP are a pair of second-year hires that have gone poorly. The Panthers are just 4-19 under Dell McGee while the 49ers are 5-18 under Scotty Walden. Moving on from both would be expensive — around $1.5 million in both cases — but both are worth watching. 

More jobs could open 

Firings and dominoes falling aren’t the only ways coaching changes could happen this cycle. As always, several coaches are on retirement watch, and there’s a trend emerging of head coaches leaving to take Power Four coordinator jobs. Just last year, Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson and Central Michigan coach Jim McElwain stepped away, while UCF coach Gus Malzahn left Orlando to become Florida State’s offensive coordinator. 

Industry sources have consistently said to watch moves in both categories, particularly the latter this year as Group of Five programs struggle to compete in the NIL era. As one source put it this week: It’s easier to be a Power Four coordinator, and there’s arguably a better path toward a Power Four head job in that role.

Florida update amid Lane Kiffin saga

Florida — As Florida’s coaching search gathered headlines, flying under the radar was the fact the Gators also kickstarted a general manager search. While Turnkey assisted with the head coaching search, The Athlete Group reached out to potential candidates and their representatives expressing an openness to hire a GM before a head coach. That parallel search process did not get out of its initial stages as candidates have not been communicated with since mid-November. 

Some saw the communication cutoff as a clear sign that Florida’s prime target, Lane Kiffin, was not in favor of a setup with an empowered GM who is on equal footing with the head coach — like Jim Nagy is at Oklahoma. Sources have indicated that athletic director Scott Stricklin had been in favor of that alignment in the past, but after Billy Napier’s Gators went on a November win streak, the role shifted to align more with the head coach’s vision. Florida hired Nick Polk in February as associate AD football general manager. Jacob Lafrance, who was already on staff at the time, serves as GM for player personnel. 

Florida has expressed confidence about its position in the Kiffin sweepstakes, but so has LSU, which sources outside Gainesville view as the favorite for Kiffin if he were to leave Ole Miss. But nobody truly knows what Kiffin will do as those close to him stress that he changes his mind often. 

As far as backup plans if Kiffin does not pick the Gators, watch those like Eli Drinkwitz, Jedd Fisch and Clark Lea here. Tulane‘s Jon Sumrall also remains a target of Florida’s search despite last week’s public theatrics regarding a planned interview.

Ole Miss’ potential future post-Kiffin

The Rebels have two questions to answer if Kiffin were to leave following the Egg Bowl: 1. Who will be the interim head coach for a likely College Football Playoff run? 2. Who gets the full-time job? 

The candidate pool is expected to be similar. 

Defensive coordinator Pete Golding and quarterbacks coach Joe Judge are both candidates to be the interim head coach, per sources. They’re also expected to be in the mix to be the program’s next head coach if Kiffin were to leave. 

Sumrall is another name to watch closely in this race, per multiple industry sources. Speaking of Sumrall … he’s also very much in the mix for another job in the SEC. 

What’s up with Auburn?

Sources indicate Sumrall expressed a desire to take the Auburn job in recent days. He also expects to be a candidate if Ole Miss opens.

An interesting wrinkle of Auburn’s search is the status of defensive coordinator DJ Durkin, who is both a candidate for the full-time job and someone that some in the Auburn sphere would like to stay on under the next coach’s direction. 

Two others that have been involved in Auburn’s search include Vanderbilt‘s Clark Lea and Missouri‘s Eli Drinkwitz. 

UCLA eyeing Bob Chesney

UCLA’s job search seems like it could be nearing its conclusion. The name that’s come up the most with the Bruins is James Madison coach Bob Chesney, who many industry sources view as the clear frontrunner. Chesney is also a candidate at Penn State. Others that have come up in this search include San Diego State coach Sean Lewis. 

Penn State taking its swings

Chesney is also in the mix at Penn state, as is South Florida‘s Alex Golesh and former New York Giants coach Brian Daboll. Interim coach Terry Smith is making a push and is expected to interview formally this week. Penn State has been swinging big but not that successfully (see Mike Elko’s recent extension). Others like Ohio state offensive coordinator Brian Hartline, Lea and Drinkwitz have been involved. But there is a lot of unknown regarding what direction Penn State will actually go with its hire. Sources indicate that athletic director Pat Kraft has expressed pride in how quiet the search has been so far.

Crowded (but narrowing) field at Arkansas 

CBS Sports’ Brandon Marcello has reported that the Razorbacks have spoken to 20-plus names in their search, which is arguably the most wide-ranging of any this cycle among the Power Four programs. 

Some interesting names continue to circle around the fringes, but the names sources consistently circled for Arkansas were North Texas coach Eric Morris, Golesh, Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack (who played at Arkansas) and Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield. Morris is now off the table having agreed to be Oklahoma State’s next coach. Of the other three names, Wommack and Golesh have picked up momentum of late. 

Arkansas AD Hunter Yurachek has played things very close to the vest throughout the search. Sources have indicated the Razorbacks are nearing the end of their process, and a decision is expected in the somewhat near future. 

Early names to watch at North Texas 

With Morris out, one of the most intriguing Group of Five jobs in the country has come open. Some very early names to watch, per industry sources, include former West Virginia coach Neal Brown, Texas Tech offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich, Texas Tech associate head coach Kenny Perry and Oregon associate head coach Ra’shaad Samples.

Cal’s next steps 

Cal made the somewhat surprising decision to fire coach Justin Wilcox over the weekend. Wilcox led the Bears for nine years with a 48-55 overall record. Sources have indicated general manager Ron Rivera will help spearhead the search for the next coach, especially with interim athletic directors currently serving at the school. A source did rule out Rivera, a long-time NFL coach, taking over Cal’s head job. 

An early name that comes up for this job is Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi. He’s a Cal alumnus and has been in the mix for several other jobs this cycle. 

Oregon State, UAB updates

Despite the fact that Montana State coach Brent Vigen was on campus Monday in Corvallis, sources say he did not leave with an offer to become the next Oregon State coach. Alabama assistant head coach JaMarcus Shephard is also involved. 

Plenty of candidates have been connected to the UAB job. Tennessee Tech coach Bobby Wilder, Presbyterian coach Steve Englehart, Mercer coach Mike Jacobs are not currently expected to get the job. 

SMU offensive coordinator Casey Woods is pushing hard, but he does not call plays at SMU and the Blazers have indicated they prefer to go with someone who has head-coaching experience. Former Troy and West Virginia head coach Neal Brown has also had discussions with the Blazers. Don’t be surprised if a former FBS coach who’s been out of the game for a few years gets in the mix, per a source. 

Resources are a key issue with this job as sources indicate their roster was on the low end of the American from a compensation standpoint.