Agent’s Take: 2025 franchise tag projections and potential candidates who could get designated

NFL teams can retain the rights to one of their impending free agents in 2025 with the use of a non-exclusive tag, an exclusive franchise tag or a transition tag during a 15-day period from Feb. 18 to March 4. 

Traditionally, players aren’t happy when given a franchise tag. The designation can hinder the ability to gain long-term security because players must incur the risk of serious injury and poor performance again after already playing out their contracts when an agreement on a multiyear deal can’t be reached. In these cases, the franchise tag is essentially a high-salaried, one-year, “prove-it” deal.

The franchise tag operated more like it was originally intended this year. The designation was a precursor to a long-term deal. Seven of the eight players (87.5%) given franchise tags signed multiyear contracts. 

That’s a big change from the previous three years (2021-23). Less than half of the time (11 of 24 or 45.83%) during this time frame was a long-term deal signed while under the designation. 

A look at how franchise and transition tags work and the projected 2025 numbers are below. 

Tag logistics

How franchise and transition tenders are calculated is misunderstood. The confusion makes most attempts at projecting these numbers wrong. 

Prior to the 2011 NFL collective bargaining agreement, non-exclusive franchise tags had been an average of the five largest salaries in the prior year at a player’s position or 120% of the prior year’s salary of the player, whichever was greater. For franchise tag purposes, salary means a player’s salary cap number, excluding workout bonuses and most other performance bonuses.

The 120% and five largest salaries provisions have remained intact but the formula component is now calculated over a five-year period that’s tied to a percentage of the overall salary cap. More specifically, the number for each position is derived by taking the sum of the non-exclusive franchise tags as determined by the original methodology for the previous five seasons and dividing by the sum of the actual NFL salary cap amount for the previous five seasons. The resulting percentage, which is known as the cap percentage average in the CBA, is then multiplied by the actual salary cap for the upcoming league year. 

This non-exclusive tag allows a player to negotiate with other NFL teams but if he signs an offer sheet with another club, his team has five days to match the offer. If the offer is not matched, his team will receive two first-round picks as compensation from the signing team. 

Under the exclusive franchise tag, a player will receive a one-year offer from his team that is the greater of the average of the top five salaries at his position once the restricted free agent signing period of the current league year has ended (April 18 for 2025) or 120% of his prior year’s salary. The non-exclusive number is initially used as a placeholder and adjusted upward, if the exclusive calculation dictates, once restricted free agency ends. A player cannot negotiate with other teams if given the exclusive franchise tag. 

Teams rarely apply the transition tag. The New England Patriots placed the designation on safety Kyle Dugger this year. Prior to Dugger, the transition tag hadn’t been used since 2020 by the Arizona Cardinals with running back Kenyan Drake.

The transition tag is based on the average of the top 10 salaries at a player’s position using the same methodology as non-exclusive franchise tag calculations. The 120% provision also applies. Teams have the same right of first refusal as with franchise tags but do not receive any draft choice compensation for declining to match an offer sheet.

2025 tag projections

The chart below contains an early look at the 2025 franchise and transition tags. I keep track of the salary data necessary to do the calculations under the franchise and transition tag formulas. I recently confirmed with my NFL sources the 2024 data entering the formula. 

There was a report recently that teams have been planning for a 2025 salary cap in the $265 million to $275 million range with internal projections. The high end of $275 million is being used for the 2025 salary cap. The 7.67% increase from the current $255.4 million figure is consistent with the growth in the salary cap in 2023. The franchise and transition tags are preliminary because the numbers can’t be finalized until the 2025 salary cap is set.

The franchise tag has been used 22 times over the last three years (2022-24), which is essentially seven per year. The number of franchise designations used could decrease in 2025 because the players with expiring contracts aren’t as impressive as in recent years. It could be reminiscent of 2014 when only four players were designated as franchise players and two transition tags were used. 

The Cincinnati Bengals kept wide receiver Tee Higgins off the open market this year with a $21.816 million franchise tag. Pro Bowl quarterback Joe Burrow recently expressed confidence about the Bengals retaining Higgins. It will cost the Bengals $26,179,200 to use the designation on Higgins for a second straight year because of the 120% of prior year’s salary provisions.

The Minnesota Vikings have an interesting situation with quarterback Sam Darnold. He signed a one-year, $10 million deal to be a bridge quarterback in the transition from Kirk Cousins, who left for the Atlanta Falcons in free agency, to 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy. Darnold has taken advantage of McCarthy being lost for the year after tearing the meniscus in his right knee during the preseason opener. His surprising career year has unexpectedly turned the Vikings into Super Bowl contenders.

The Vikings will able to accommodate a Darnold franchise tag in the $40 million neighborhood. Depending upon where the 2025 salary cap is set, the Vikings could have upward to $65 million of cap room before factoring a decision on him into the equation. 

There’s a possibility that the Vikings wouldn’t get a 2026 compensatory draft pick by letting Darnold walk in free agency. It would depend on how aggressive the Vikings are in signing free agents. Since Darnold would clearly be the top quarterback available on the open market, using a franchise tag to trade him isn’t out of the question.

The last time it happened with a quarterback was Matt Cassel in 2009. The Patriots traded Cassel and linebacker Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs for a 2009 second-round pick (34th overall).

Russell Wilson has resurrected his career with the Pittsburgh Steelers this year after the Denver Broncos released him in March. Pittsburgh’s history with the transition tag shouldn’t be ignored. The Steelers used the designation on offensive tackle Max Starks in 2008 and linebacker Jason Worilds in 2014. There should be close to a $5 million difference in the franchise and transition tags.

Chiefs guard Trey Smith is the top offensive lineman with an expiring contract. Interior offensive linemen are rarely given franchise tags. The Washington Commanders used franchise tags on offensive guard Brandon Scherff in both 2020 and 2021. The Patriots also placed a franchise designation on offensive guard Joe Thuney in 2020. Prior to those two, the last offensive guard to receive a franchise tag was Logan Mankins by the Patriots in 2011.

Smith’s franchise tag, which should be in the $23 million neighborhood, will be higher than the top of offensive guard market. Landon Dickerson (Philadelphia Eagles) sets the market at $21 million per year.

Chris Godwin was on pace for career highs in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches before dislocating his left ankle in a Week 7 contest against the Baltimore Ravens. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers using a franchise tag on Godwin for the third time in his NFL career will be too cost prohibitive. By CBA rule, it will be the greater of 144% of his $27.534 million 2024 salary ($39,648,960) or the largest number at any position, which is quarterback.

The Miami Dolphins let defensive tackle Christian Wilkins test free agency this year because of cap constraints. The same could hold true for safety Jevon Holland. He hasn’t done himself any favors with his recent play. Nonetheless, Holland will likely have his sights set on the top of the safety market. 

David Mulugheta, Holland’s agent, has his finger on the pulse of this market. He just did a contract extension for Budda Baker with the Cardinals, reportedly worth $54 million over three years for an average of $18 million per year. He made Antoine Winfield Jr., who was designated as a franchise player by the Buccaneers, the NFL’s highest-paid defensive back in May with a four-year, $84.1 million contract, averaging $21.025 million per year. Mulugheta also had the top safety contract in free agency this year: Xavier McKinney’s four-year, $67 million deal worth up to $68 million through incentives and salary escalators with the Green Bay Packers.