Agent’s Take: A look at ongoing Brandon Aiyuk-49ers saga, and why contract resolution could be coming soon

The contract saga between the San Francisco 49ers and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has had plenty of twists and turns. There’s been more drama than on a daytime soap opera.

Aiyuk was noncommittal about his future with the 49ers during the locker-room cleanout a couple days after a 25-22 overtime loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. His response to reporters about remaining in San Francisco was “If that’s the right move.” When 49ers general manager John Lynch indicated at the NFL owners meeting in late March that talks to extend Aiyuk’s contract were ongoing, the 2020 first-round pick posted emojis on Instagram which seemingly translated to “Money talks, bullsh-t walks.” Aiyuk unfollowed the 49ers on social media shortly thereafter.

The 49ers selected wide receiver Ricky Pearsall at the end of the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft with the 31st overall pick. This increased speculation that either Aiyuk or fellow wide receiver Deebo Samuel could be traded.

Aiyuk skipped offseason workouts and the mandatory minicamp held June 4-6. He subjected himself to a $101,716 fine for missing the entire three-day minicamp. Aiyuk subsequently claimed in a TikTok post where he was having a video chat with former Arizona State teammate Jayden Daniels, who was selected second overall in this year’s draft to quarterback the Washington Commanders, that the 49ers didn’t want him back.

Aiyuk’s camp requested a meeting with Lynch and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan to clear the air during the latter part of June. The meeting reportedly went well.

Any goodwill from the meeting was short-lived. Aiyuk’s frustration with his contract situation reached a boiling point last week as he requested a trade. The 49ers didn’t waste any time in publicly stating that Aiyuk isn’t on the trading block.

Aiyuk reported to the opening of training camp on July 23 rather than hold out. By showing up for training camp, Aiyuk avoids a $40,000-per-day fine for each missed day and an additional penalty of one week’s base salary (1/18th of salary) for each preseason game missed since he is a first-round pick playing under a fifth-year option. Aiyuk is scheduled to make a fully guaranteed $14.124 million this season with the fifth-year option, so $784,667 would have been at risk for every exhibition contest he skipped.

Niners expect Aiyuk to remain ‘integral part of our team’

Lynch reiterated at his press conference for the start of training camp that Aiyuk is still in the 49ers’ plans. “We fully intend on Brandon being a Niner moving forward,” Lynch said. We’re always open to listen to things, but like I said, we expect Brandon to be an integral part of our team like he has been and excited about that.”

It wouldn’t be surprising for Aiyuk to “hold-in” although Lynch stated he expects everyone to practice. The “hold-in” began emerging as a new tactic for players to try to get contract unhappiness addressed because of the harsh economic consequences of a holdout under the 2020 NFL collective bargaining agreement. After reporting to training camp, a player won’t practice or have limited participation, which typically includes attending meetings, in an effort to get a new contract.

Samuel used this ploy during the first few days of training camp in 2022 before signing a three-year, $71.55 million extension (worth up to $73.5 million through incentives) averaging $23.85 million per year.

According to NFL Media’s Mike Garafolo, the 49ers last made an offer to Aiyuk in May. The offer was reportedly in the $26 million-per-year range.

After Aiyuk made his trade request, reports surfaced that the 49ers granted his camp permission prior to the draft to explore whether another team would meet his financial demands. Five teams were reportedly willing to pay Aiyuk in the $28 million-per-year neighborhood.

This was right around the time the higher end of the wide receiver market started to explode. Market developments have surely impacted Aiyuk’s price tag.

Impact of ever-changing WR market

Amon-Ra St. Brown briefly became the league’s highest-paid wide receiver in the days leading up to the draft. He signed a four-year, $120.01 million contract extension averaging $30,002,500 per year with the Detroit Lions.

The ink was barely dry on St. Brown’s contract when A.J. Brown took the highest-paid wide receiver mantle from him. Brown received a three-year, $96 million extension averaging $32 million per year from the Philadelphia Eagles. He set a then-wide receiver record with $84 million in guarantees. The $51 million fully guaranteed at signing was the second-most ever for a wide receiver.

At the end of May, the Miami Dolphins signed 2021 first-round pick Jaylen Waddle to a three-year, $84.75 million extension with $76 million in guarantees where $35,978,546 was fully guaranteed at signing. At $28.25 million per year, Waddle is the NFL’s fifth-highest paid wide receiver although he clearly is Miami’s No. 2 receiving option behind Tyreek Hill.

Most recently, Justin Jefferson reset the wide receiver market and replaced 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa as the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback in the process. The Minnesota Vikings signed Jefferson to a four-year, $140 million extension averaging $35 million per year during the early part of June.

Jefferson’s deal established new wide receiver records for overall guarantees and the amount fully guaranteed at signing respectively with $110 million and $88.743 million. The $88.743 million is also the most ever fully guaranteed at signing for a non-quarterback.

Should the 49ers decide to part ways with Aiyuk, a team must have enough salary cap room to absorb his $14.124 million 2024 salary in order to make a trade. Once the player is acquired, the new team can renegotiate or restructure his contract to increase/decrease his cap number and/or salary.

The New England Patriots, who lack a No. 1 wide receiver, have just under $43.875 million of 2024 cap space according to NFLPA data. The Washington Commanders, who are at the top of Aiyuk’s desired destinations because of his relationship with Daniels, have a little more than $37.3 million of cap room.

Trading Aiyuk won’t help 49ers win in 2024

Teams aren’t allowed to include cash or cap room in trades under NFL rules. The way around it, which probably wouldn’t be applicable to Aiyuk, is for the team and player to restructure the contract before the trade by converting salary into signing bonus. It operates essentially the same way as including cash or cap room because the acquiring team’s cap hit for the player in the current league year is reduced. Eating salary in this manner has been a way to increase the compensation received for a player.

The three trades in 2022 involving veteran No. 1 wide receivers may provide some insight into the necessary draft choice compensation to obtain Aiyuk. A new contract was a part of the process with each of these trades.

The Las Vegas Raiders acquired Davante Adams, who was designated as a franchise player, from the Green Bay Packers for a 2022 first-round pick (22nd overall) and a 2022 second-round pick (53rd overall pick) that March a couple days after the start of free agency. The Chiefs followed suit by dealing Hill to the Dolphins for five draft picks: 2022 first- (29th overall), second- (50th overall) and fourth-round picks in addition to 2023 fourth- and sixth-round picks. The Tennessee Titans surprisingly traded Brown to the Eagles during the first round of the 2022 draft for 2022 first- (18th overall) and third-round picks.

A big difference between these transactions and a potential Aiyuk move is the Chiefs, Packers and Titans were able to get immediate help through the draft to try to mitigate the loss of a crucial player because of the timing of the trade. The 49ers won’t be able to do so with draft picks that can’t be used until next year at the earliest. The inclusion of a player(s) who could contribute to the 49ers this season would change the compensation equation.

The 49ers are likely to want a king’s ransom for Aiyuk regardless of what could be gotten in return (draft choices, players or some combination of the two) because of being a legitimate championship contender. Having Aiyuk this season maximizes San Francisco’s chances to win Super Bowl LIX.

San Francisco isn’t strangers to acrimonious contract negotiations. Bosa’s $34 million-per-year deal wasn’t done until right before the regular season to end his holdout. Samuel, like Aiyuk, requested a trade when negotiations were heading toward an impasse. I suspect the 49ers and Aiyuk, just as Bosa and Samuel did, will find common ground on a new deal at some point before the 2024 regular season starts.