Agent’s Take: Did the Vikings miscalculate their quarterback decisions by going all in on J.J. McCarthy?

The Minnesota Vikings had high expectations heading into this season after coming up one win short of earning the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed in 2024. The quarterback reins were handed over to 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy, who was lost for his rookie year after tearing the meniscus in his right knee during the preseason opener. A spending spree took place in free agency where upgrading the offensive line (offensive guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly) and interior of the defensive line (Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave) were the priorities. 

Despite McCarthy’s lack of game experience, he only took 12 offensive snaps in the 2025 preseason. By contrast 2024’s 12th overall pick, Bo Nix, who was on the field for 98.73% of the Denver Broncos‘ offensive plays in 2024, was under center for 40 preseason snaps.

The 2025 season has been disappointing for a variety of reasons. A big issue is the drop-off at quarterback from Sam Darnold, who earned Pro Bowl honors last season. Outside of producing three fourth-quarter touchdowns during a 27-24 comeback win over the Chicago Bears in the regular-season opener, McCarthy struggled in the two games he played before suffering a high right ankle sprain. In the other seven quarters McCarthy has played this season, he has completed 55% of his passes for 214 yards while committing four turnovers and taking nine sacks.

Carson Wentz, who was signed late in the preseason to back up McCarthy after Sam Howell was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, was inconsistent while going 2-3 in five starts. McCarthy is set to return to the lineup for Week 9’s game versus the Detroit Lions with Wentz going on injured reserve because of a season-ending injury to his left (non-throwing) shoulder. McCarthy has been the emergency quarterback for Minnesota’s last two games. In order to be the emergency quarterback, McCarthy had to be medically cleared to play. This prompted some speculation that the Vikings felt Wentz was the quarterback best equipped to win games right now. 

The commitment to McCarthy cost the Vikings other viable options at quarterback: Darnold, Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings are in last place in the NFC North with a 3-4 record. The four losses are more than the Vikings had last season going 14-3.

It’s conceivable that the Vikings would be 5-2 after seven games for the second straight season with better quarterback play. One-score games were lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers (24-21) and the Eagles (28-22).

The Darnold decision

Darnold seemed like a lock to return to Minnesota before his closing statement in the final two games last season. He played his worst football when the stakes were highest. Darnold was awful in the Week 18 defeat to the Lions when a wild card bye and the NFC North title were on the line and in the season-ending wild card playoff game loss to the Los Angeles Rams. His completion percentage was 53.1% while throwing for 411 yards with one touchdown and one interception for a 66.4 passer rating. Darnold took 11 sacks in the two games, including a playoff-record-tying nine sacks versus the Rams.

Nonetheless, the Vikings explored re-signing Darnold. He ultimately went to the Seattle Seahawks in free agency. The Seahawks signed Darnold to a team-friendly three-year, $100.5 million contract, averaging $33.5 million per year, worth a maximum of $115.5 million through incentives. 

The deal was structured to give the Seahawks a small window to get out of the deal after this season if Darnold didn’t play well. Out of the $27.5 million Darnold is scheduled to make in 2026, the $17.5 million that’s guaranteed for injury becomes fully guaranteed five days after Super Bowl LX on Feb. 13. The Seahawks would have $25.6 million in dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team’s roster, while Darnold will have gotten $37.5 million for one year by Seattle parting ways with him in 2026.

A quick exit isn’t a consideration for the Seahawks. Darnold is demonstrating that his 2024 Pro Bowl season wasn’t a fluke. He is completing 68.2% of his passes (131 of 192 attempts) for 1,754 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions to post a 109.2 passer rating in seven games. Darnold’s 9.1 yards per pass attempt leads the NFL. He ranks seventh in the league in passer rating. 

The Seahawks are sitting atop the NFC West along with the Rams at 5-2 after missing the playoffs last season. The only negative for Darnold is the Seahawks might be undefeated without his late-game turnovers in Week 1 and Week 5 losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, respectively.

Indiana Jones

The Vikings had a pretty good sense of Jones’ capabilities because he spent the final six weeks of the 2024 regular season on their practice squad after the New York Giants granted his request to be released. Jones was signed to the 53-man roster to back up Darnold during the playoffs.

An unwillingness to assure Jones that there would be an open competition at quarterback like he had with Anthony Richardson this preseason pushed him to the Indianapolis Colts. He signed a one-year, $14 million contract worth up to $17.7 million with incentives in free agency.

Jones is having a surprising career resurrection with the Colts. He is an MVP candidate. Jones has thrown for 2,062 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions while connecting on 71.2% of his passes (173 of 243 attempts) for a 109.5 passer rating in eight games. He ranks third, fourth and fifth in the NFL, respectively, in completion percentage, passing yards and passer rating. The Colts are tops in scoring at 33.8 points per game and have the NFL’s best record at 7-1.

Not aligned with Aaron

The Vikings were Aaron Rodgers’ preferred destination to play a 21st NFL season. Unfortunately for Rodgers, coming to Minnesota was more appealing to him than the Vikings. He signed a one-year, $13.65 million contract worth a maximum of $19.5 million through incentives with the Steelers in June.

Rodgers is demonstrating there’s still some gas left in the tank, although he turns 42 in December. He has passed for 1,489 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions in seven games. Rodgers is completing 68.3% of his throws (142 of 208 pass attempts) and has a 104.4 passer rating. His 16 touchdown passes are tied for the NFL’s third most. Rodgers also has the league’s eighth best passer rating. The Steelers, who are leading the AFC North, reportedly would like Rodgers to return for 2026.

Monday morning QB

The composition of the roster would likely be different with any of the other three quarterbacks. Darnold’s current contract has a $13.4 million 2025 salary cap number thanks to the inclusion of two dummy/voiding contract years in 2028 and 2029 that allow for his $32 million signing bonus to be prorated at $6.4 million annually for five years. 

The Vikings are comfortable using voiding years in contracts. Assuming a comparable contract structured in a similar manner for Darnold from the Vikings, the 2025 cap difference with Wentz’s deal would be in the $12 million neighborhood. 

Keeping in line with the $15.049 million of 2025 cap space the Vikings currently have, according to NFLPA data, retaining Darnold would have prevented the signing of an offensive lineman (Fries or Kelly) and an interior defensive lineman (Allen or Hargrave). Fries and Kelly have 2025 cap numbers of $5.67 million and $5,569,559, respectively. Allen’s and Hargrave’s respective 2025 cap hits are $6,421,666 and $8,017,206.

The one-year, $10 million deal Darnold signed to join the Vikings last year had 2025 through 2028 voiding contract years to lower his 2024 cap number to $5 million. The Vikings have $5 million in 2025 cap charges related to those years because Darnold got a $6.25 million signing bonus.

Presumably, the Vikings would have similarly inserted four dummy contract years into any one-year deal Jones or Rodgers signed. The 2025 cap hit likely wouldn’t have been more than $7.5 million. The net cap increase from Wentz would have been in the $6 million range. In order to maintain the integrity of Minnesota’s current salary cap situation, one of the four linemen wouldn’t have been signed. 

In the short term, the Vikings probably would have been better off with one of the three veteran quarterbacks on the roster this season. Signing Jones or Rodgers to a one-year deal would have made more sense financially and from a salary cap perspective than Darnold. The veterans continuing to play well without McCarthy consistently showing some of the potential that made him a top 10 pick over the rest of the season will bring more attention and scrutiny to Minnesota’s quarterback decisions.