AL West odds: Astros can’t seem to find a worthy challenger but Mariners, Rangers aren’t dead yet

The American League West hasn’t been the strongest division for a few years. 

Last season, the Astros won the division by three games despite only winning 88. That marked the lowest number of wins by a division champ by four games. In 2023, the Astros and Rangers tied at the top with 90, but Houston won the tiebreaker (don’t even get me started there) and secured the title. The Rangers got the last laugh by winning the ALCS over the Astros and then the World Series. Regardless, the fact remains we have seen a weak AL West in the regular season for three straight years now. 

Today, the Astros lead the division and are on pace to win 89 games. The Mariners are on pace for 84 wins while the Rangers are pacing toward 83. 

The Astros appear to have been desperately trying to let someone pass them for about two months. From July 6 through Sept. 3, the Astros went 22-28. Only two AL teams have a worse record in that span and 50 games isn’t some tiny sample. Houston has been scuffling for a while. 

The Mariners tied the division on Aug. 12, but they’ve dropped 14 of 20 since and have generally looked awful. They sit four games out. 

The Rangers have just been too hot and cold all season. Case in point, they climbed to within 4 ½ in early August but then went through a stretch where they lost 10 of 12. Just a couple games later, they started a stretch where they won nine of 10. And then they lost their last two games in Arizona, falling back to 5 ½ games back when it looked like the door to contention was really open. 

The odds to win the AL West right now, courtesy of FanDuel:

Astros -330

Now that the offense has Yordan Alvarez back and Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia have rejoined the rotation, the Astros are healthier than they have been for much of this season. Still, Isaac Paredes, Spencer Arrighetti and Josh Hader are injured, among others, and the team hasn’t been very good in a while. 

The Astros after Thursday have 15 of their final 21 games on the road. Their remaining homestand, however, is against the Rangers and Mariners. That is their opportunity to bury the opposition. Then again, they could also fold. 

It seems like the Astros will win the division, but I’m not -330 sure about it. It’s more fading the other teams at this point. 

Mariners +290

The Mariners have great pitching, right? 

Well…

They are 19th in rotation ERA since the All-Star break. Bryan Woo is the best of the bunch at 3.60, trailed by Logan Gilbert‘s 4.22 and George Kirby‘s 4.44. Luis Castillo, Logan Evans and Bryce Miller all have 5+ ERAs since the break. 

Offensively, they’ve hit .221/.297/.392 (ranking 19th in wRC+) since the break. They have some good pieces and have had several stretches where they score in bunches, but things just aren’t consistently matching up with the pitching. 

Maybe things come together down the stretch? The Mariners have one of the three easiest remaining schedules in all of baseball. They have series left against the Rockies, Angels and Cardinals. Their three series against teams with winning records are against the Astros (opportunity!), Royals (only one game over .500) and Dodgers (last three games of the season, when the Dodgers likely have things wrapped up and might be resting their stars).

Rangers +1700

Though they’ll need a little help with the Mariners from someone else, the Rangers control their own destiny against the Astros. They have six games left against the division leaders, starting Friday in Arlington. 

It would sure help if Nathan Eovaldi wasn’t hurt, Tyler Mahle was a lock to come back strong (he gave up five runs in one inning on his rehab assignment earlier this week), Jacob deGrom didn’t seem like he was on borrowed time (he’s over 150 innings when he hadn’t thrown more than 92 in a season since 2019) and on and on and on. Plus, the offense hasn’t inspired confidence all season and now Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are hurt. 

It’s a major uphill battle, but technically the Rangers have a chance.

The verdict

It’s probably just going to be the Astros. I certainly wouldn’t bet on them with these odds. I could see arguments for the Mariners based on schedule or the Rangers hoping to hit it big with those odds. Pick your poison with this lackluster division.