Alex Bregman lands with Red Sox: What signing means for Boston’s infield, top prospects, playoff odds and more

The Boston Red Sox and star infielder Alex Bregman agreed to a three-year pact worth $120 million on Wednesday night that removed the last significant name from this winter’s free-agent market. (Bregman’s deal reportedly includes significant deferrals that reduce the contract’s present day value to around $90 million.) The Red Sox had been public about their desire to add another right-handed batter before Opening Day, with the rumor mill connecting them to Bregman and St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado. In Bregman, Boston has secured just that — and has done so without handing over the kind of long-term deal that Bregman was reportedly seeking all winter. 

Whenever a deal of this magnitude goes down — and mind you, CBS Sports ranked Bregman as the No. 3 free agent available entering the offseason — it inspires a lot of questions about the fit and the greater ramifications. Below, I’ve attempted to answer four big questions inspired by this signing.

Let’s get to it.

1. How does Bregman fit in Boston’s lineup?

The most obvious question to ask about Bregman joining the Red Sox is … well, where does he play?

It’s not the cleanest defensive fit on paper. The Red Sox already employ a top third baseman in Rafael Devers, as well as a first baseman, Triston Casas, who has been an above-average hitter for his career. In theory, the Red Sox could trade Casas and relocate Devers to the cold corner. In practice, it appears Boston will instead deploy Bregman at second base, according to ESPN.

Bregman, it’s worth noting, has not played a single inning at a position other than third base since 2019, when he appeared at shortstop for the Houston Astros. It’s to be seen how he takes to the keystone, but there is some reason to think he’ll manage. After all, he’s reliably graded as an above-average fielder at the hot corner, earning plus marks for his range. Bregman’s weakest defensive attribute is arguably his arm strength, something that won’t matter at second.

That isn’t to suggest Bregman won’t face a learning curve at his new position. He’ll need to familiarize himself with the angles — how the ball comes off the bat, his throwing lanes to the bases, and so on — and with learning how to work the pivot on double plays. But there’s no apparent reason why he shouldn’t be able to make the transition and become a quality defender.

As for offensively, it stands to reason that Red Sox manager Alex Cora will place him near the top of the order. Here’s Boston’s forecasted lineup, courtesy of Roster Resource:

1. LF Jarren Duran
2. 3B Rafael Devers
3. 2B Alex Bregman
4. 1B Triston Casas
5. DH Masataka Yoshida
6. SS Trevor Story
7. RF Wilyer Abreu
8. C Connor Wong
9. CF Ceddanne Rafaela

Let’s analyze Bregman’s offensive fit in more detail by shifting our attention to how he should take to his new home-park environment.

2. And within Fenway Park?

One of the biggest concerns about Bregman is how his power will play outside of Houston’s friendly confines — specifically the big wall and short porch offered to him in left field by the Crawford Boxes. As I wrote in his free-agent ranking: “Statcast’s calculations suggest he would have at least 30 fewer career home runs had he hit the same array of batted balls in one of 17 other MLB fields. You can’t hold that against Bregman — you golf the course you’re on — but it does suggest his power might play down elsewhere.”

If you know nothing else about Fenway Park, you know that it has an even bigger wall in left field for Bregman to leverage into myriad doubles. The catch is that he still may see his home-run total dip with the move away from Houston. Statcast’s calculations, which adjust for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects, indicate Bregman would have 70 fewer career home runs if he had been a member of the Red Sox and had generated the same batted-ball outlay. 

Obviously it’s not that cut and dry. Bregman may alter his approach at the plate as part of his transition to Boston, or he may atone for the lost home runs with the aforementioned doubles. (I will note that Bregman’s launch angle and exit velocity metrics on his batted balls to left field last season were similar to Mookie Betts’, and Betts fared just fine during his Red Sox career.) All the same, it illustrates what a perfect dynamic Bregman had going on with the Crawford Boxes. 

3. What does this mean for Boston’s top prospects? 

Long-term thinkers might wonder: what do the Red Sox now intend to do with some of their best prospects. Boston has three of the best youngsters in the game: outfielder Roman Anthony (No. 1 overall), infielder Kristian Campbell (No. 3), and infielder Marcelo Mayer (No. 10). Each ought to make their big-league debuts at some point over the coming season, further complicating matters as the Red Sox try to cram everyone onto the same depth chart.

Having more talented players than spots is an undeniably good thing. The reality is that these things tend to take care of themselves anyway. That can be through injury, through trades or positional switches, or through underperformance. 

So far as this trio of prospects is concerned, Anthony seems to my eyes to be the least impacted by Bregman’s addition since he’s an outfielder by trade. Campbell, the breakout star of last year’s minor-league season, has logged ample time at other positions (shortstop and center field included), suggesting he ought to be prepared to slot into an opening whenever and wherever it presents itself. Mayer, meanwhile, has yet to appear in 100 games as a professional.

On that note, Boston’s starting shortstop is Trevor Story, no stranger to his own physical ailments. It’s no knock on Story to assume that, at some point this season, the Red Sox will have some opportunity at shortstop to hand to either Campbell or Mayer. And long term? Who knows. Bregman’s contract includes opt-out opportunities after both the first and second seasons, making it a distinct possibility that he’s a short-term player in Boston’s overarching story.

4. Will the Red Sox make the playoffs?

I’ll wrap up by addressing another notable matter: can the Red Sox make the playoffs? 

No one can say for certain — there’s a reason they play the games — but they’ve undeniably improved their standing since the start of the winter. To wit, FanGraphs’ freshest playoff odds, which include Bregman’s signing, give the Red Sox a 21% chance of winning the American League East (the second-best odds in the division) and a 53.8% chance of making the playoffs. 

Remember, this is a club whose previous offseason efforts saw them focus on their pitching staff, netting starters Garrett Grochet, Walker Buehler, and Patrick Sandoval, as well as inking lefty reliever Aroldis Chapman to serve in a high-leverage role. Now, with Bregman in tow and an improved, deeper lineup in the cards, everything is pointing in the right direction for the Red Sox.