Best NFL futures bets to make after 2025 season’s first month: Buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Detroit Lions

In the blink of an eye, the 2025 NFL regular season’s first month is already over. As expected, there were plenty of unexpected developments that unfolded over the first four weeks. For instance, who anticipated Daniel Jones leading the Indianapolis Colts to a 3-1 start? Or the Baltimore Ravens sitting at 1-3? Or Quentin Johnston ranking third in the NFL in receiving yards? You get the point.

Those twists and turns are expected to continue as we navigate the rest of the regular season, which provides us with some lanes to value on the betting markets. After all, there are still 14 weeks left to play, and whatever conclusions we’ve made up to this point can change in an instant. With one month in the books, we’ve identified five best futures for the rest of the season. 

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Jacksonville Jaguars to win AFC South

Best price: +125 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

The talking point in the AFC South has been dominated by the Colts to the point where you’d think that they’re running away with the division. In reality, they exited the first month tied with the Jaguars for first place at 3-1.

Jacksonville has flown a bit under the radar, but the defense and running game thus far have been fantastic. The Jags are third in the NFL in rushing yards per game (144.0) and sixth in rushing yards per attempt (5.0).

Meanwhile, the defense has been a magnet for the football, logging 13 takeaways through the first four weeks. However, the positive strides for the defense go beyond merely getting lucky bounces. They are fifth in red-zone efficiency and No. 1 in opponent passer rating (69.0).

A stout defense coupled with a strong rushing attack is an ideal formula for winning games consistently. We haven’t even mentioned the possibility of Brian Thomas Jr. turning it on after a slow start to the year, so the passing attack also has room to grow.

Combine all that with the NFL’s fourth-easiest remaining schedule and Jacksonville is live in the AFC South. The main competition, Indianapolis, has a much harder road ahead, and the Colts’ defense still has major questions. There’s also the possibility of Jones reverting to his former self after a hot month.

If this comes to fruition and the Jags win the AFC South, it’d also make sense to sprinkle Liam Coen for Coach of the Year (+650, FanDuel) as well. 

Detroit Lions to win NFC North

Best price: +120 (BetMGM)

I’ve been steady on the Lions dating back to the start of the season. Even with the hype surrounding Micah Parsons heading to the Green Bay Packers, I still viewed Detroit as the team to beat. The Lions were not only my pick to win the NFC North — they also remain my pick to come out of the NFC.

While it was a bit hairy there with the Week 1 loss to Green Bay, over the past three weeks the Lions have looked much closer to the dominant club that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. The offense remains one of the NFL’s most potent while the defense has been serviceable.

Detroit does have one of the NFL’s more difficult paths forward, but the Packers aren’t walking through a rose garden either. And Green Bay hasn’t looked as impenetrable as it did at the start of the year. 

Ashton Jeanty to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Best price: +380 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Emeka Egbuka is the odds-on favorite to win this award for good reason. The summer hype surrounding Tampa Bay’s first-round pick has carried into the regular season with the Ohio State product hauling in 18 passes for 282 yards and four touchdowns over the first month. If he keeps that up, he could run away with the award.

However, I’m just a wee bit dubious that he will. It’s not because Egbuka lacks the skill set — I’m not sure that the volume will be there down the stretch. The Buccaneers welcomed back Chris Godwin this week, and he looked like his old self, warranting 10 targets from Baker Mayfield in Week 4. When Mike Evans returns, he’ll carve into the target share as well, which begs the question of whether or not Egbuka will have the volume to maintain his stellar pace.

Meanwhile, Jeanty (the preseason favorite) gives us some solid value at the moment and seemingly turned a corner this week with a dazzling showing against the Bears in which he averaged 6.6 yards per carry en route to a 138-yard day rushing. That included three total touchdowns (two receiving and one rushing).

I want to buy Jeanty stock now, with this being the potential turning point for him to live up to his draft billing. The Raiders possess the NFL’s second-easiest schedule for running backs, according to DraftSharks.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba to lead NFL in receiving yards

Best price: +600 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

JSN currently ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards and trails Puka Nacua (+130) by 99 yards through the first month. While Nacua has been sensational, the Rams‘ star wideout isn’t the most durable, which makes betting him a bit uneasy with these odds at the moment. There’s also the presence of Davante Adams that should command a strong amount of targets from Matthew Stafford.

Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with an enormous 40.3% target share through the first month, which means Sam Darnold is funneling him the football, and there are no signs of that subsiding. Moreover, as FFT’s Jacob Gibbs points out, Smith-Njigba also leads the NFL with a 53% air yardage share as well.

At 6/1, this is a smash spot — even if it feels uneasy fading arguably the NFL’s best receiver at the moment.

New England Patriots over 8.5 wins

Best price: +115 (Fanatics Sportsbook)

New England finds itself 2-2 coming out of the season’s first month, and will likely drop to 2-3 this week when it visits the Buffalo Bills for Sunday Night Football. With that in mind, it may be wise to hold off until after that game to bet this so that you lock in a more advantageous price.

Even with the assumption the Patriots fall under .500 yet again, I think New England can reach nine wins simply because of its schedule. The Patriots have the NFL’s easiest slate the rest of the way, and there’s an avenue for them to go on a run after Week 5.

Following Buffalo, here’s a look at New England’s next eight games before its Week 14 bye: 

• at Saints (Week 6)
• at Titans (Week 7)
• vs. Browns (Week 8)
• vs. Falcons (Week 9)
• at Buccaneers (Week 10)
• vs. Jets (Week 11)
• at Bengals (Week 12)
• vs. Giants (Week 13)

Let’s pencil in a loss to the Buccaneers and even a home defeat against the Falcons (although that’s certainly a winnable game). It doesn’t take much to think that the Patriots can pull out those remaining six games. That would bring New England to eight wins before the bye with four games to go. 

Can the Patriots take down the Jets (Week 17) on the road? What about Miami at home in the regular-season finale? Beyond the schedule’s softness, there’s room for growth from the roster — particularly with Drake Maye, who has already been playing extremely well.