Bold predictions for MLB’s second half: Mets make blockbuster trade, regular season ends with tiebreaker, more

The 2024 MLB All-Star Game and draft are in the books, and the trade deadline is less than two weeks away. After that we’ll get into the dog days of summer, and the various postseason and awards races. While we wait out the rest of the All-Star break, here are 10 bold predictions for the second half of the 2024 regular season. Come with me, won’t you?

1. The Cardinals will spend at least one day in first place

Did you know the Cardinals have the best record in the National League since the admittedly arbitrary date of May 11? It’s true. They’re 35-22 (.614) since then, a win better than the Phillies (34-22, .607). Only the Astros (36-21, .632) and Guardians (34-21, .618) have better records than St. Louis since May 11.

This two-month heater has put the Cardinals back in postseason position and within shouting distance of the NL Central-leading Brewers. Here are the NL Central standings:

1. Brewers: 55-42
2. Cardinals: 50-46 (4.5 GB)
3. Pirates: 48-48 (6.5 GB)
4. Reds: 47-50 (8 GB)
5. Cubs: 47-51 (8.5 GB)

The Brewers limped to the All-Star break a bit (19-19 in their last 38 games) and the Cardinals are as close as they’ve been to Milwaukee in weeks. These teams have two three-game series remaining (Aug. 20-22 in St. Louis and Sept. 2-4 in Milwaukee), so while the Brewers are in good shape (they lead the season series 6-1), this division race is far from over.

Our first bold prediction says the Cardinals will continue their hot streak and, at some point between now and the end of the season, they will pass the Brewers and spent at least one day in sole possession of first place in the NL Central. I’m not saying St. Louis will win the division (though that is possible). I’m just saying they will catch and then pass the Brewers for at least one day.

2. The Blue Jays will trade a cornerstone player

It feels like it’s time. The first half went about as poorly as possible for the Blue Jays, who are 44-52 overall and 9.5 games out of a wild-card spot with six teams ahead of them. FanGraphs puts Toronto’s postseason odds at 1.8% and that feels high. SportsLine puts them at a more humbling 1.0%. Things are dire north of the border.

The question is not will the Blue Jays sell at the deadline. Of course they will. Rentals Yusei Kikuchi and Danny Jansen are as good as gone in a trade market starved for pitching and light on catchers. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to listen to offers for Chris Bassitt and Chad Green even though they’re signed through 2025. What about Kevin Gausman? Never hurts to take a call, right?

The Blue Jays are going to sell. The question is to what extent? To put it another way, would they actually trade a homegrown cornerstone player like Bo Bichette and/or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? This bold prediction says yes, the Blue Jays will send shockwaves through Toronto and the trade market by trading one of their foundational pieces.

We’ll say Guerrero stays and Bichette goes. Specifically, he’ll get traded to the Giants for erstwhile top prospect Marco Luciano and lefty Carson Whisenhunt, among others. San Francisco gets a needed shortstop and the big name they crave, and the Blue Jays shake things up and improve their young talent base. Bichette’s days in Toronto are numbered, we boldly predict.

3. Elly will get to 80 stolen bases

Earlier this year, Reds wunderkind Elly De La Cruz was on pace to steal 100 bases, something no player has done since Vince Coleman swiped 109 bags in 1987. De La Cruz’s stolen base pace has slowed down, unsurprisingly, and he entered the All-Star break with an MLB-leading 46 steals, 16 more than any other player.

The Reds have played 97 games, putting De La Cruz on pace to steal 78 bases this season. That would be the most since José Reyes stole 78 bases 2007. Ronald Acuña Jr. stole 73 bags last year, but like most speedsters, his stolen base pace slowed later in the season. Acuña swiped only (“only”) 10 bases in his final 25 games, a mere 65-steal pace.

Stealing bases is a grind. Players get banged up sliding into the bag so many times — don’t forget all the times they have to dive back into first base on pickoff attempts — plus their legs get heavy as the wear and tear of the 162-game season sets in. Stealing bases is not easy and it takes a lot out of a player. There’s a reason we don’t see 70-steal seasons that often.

No matter. Elly is electric and the most captivating player in the sport. This bold prediction says De La Cruz will pick up the pace ever so slightly in the second half and become baseball’s first 80-steal player since Coleman (81) and Rickey Henderson (93) in 1988. Go Elly go.

4. The Mets will trade for Crochet

All the usual suspects have been mentioned as potential landing spots for White Sox ace Garrett Crochet. The Astros, the Dodgers, the Orioles, the Yankees, etc. It is highly likely Crochet will be traded, but rather than one of those teams, we’re going to boldly predict Crochet lands with the Mets, who are in wild-card position and could use a high-end starter under control beyond 2024 (which team couldn’t?).

The issue with Crochet is his workload. He’s thrown 107 1/3 innings, far and away a career high (his previous career high was 65 innings as a college sophomore in 2019), and it’s hard to see how a team could responsibly ask Crochet to continue starting through the end of the season. At some point his workload will be scaled back. That likely means a move to the bullpen, where he has plenty of experience, and where the Mets need plenty of help.

We’re going to say the Mets will add Crochet, use him as a reliever the rest of 2024, then move him back into the rotation in 2025 (and also 2026). They’ll outbid the Astros, Dodgers, et al, with a package that includes former top prospect Brett Baty, righty Brandon Sproat, catcher Kevin Parada, plus other stuff. Crochet to the Mets at the deadline. It has been foretold.

5. The Yankees will make no fewer than four trades at the deadline

At 58-40, the Yankees have the fourth-best record in baseball, and they also have the second-best run differential (plus-106). They’re one game out in the AL East and 5.5 games up on a wild-card spot. By any objective measure, the Yankees have been one of the best teams in baseball in 2024. So why then does it feel like they’re in crisis mode? Because they’re 8-18 in their last 26 games, the worst record in baseball during that time, and they suffered the mother of all gut-punch losses Sunday.

Despite their record and run differential, and despite the greatness of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, the Yankees sure do have a lot of needs at the trade deadline. At minimum, they need a third baseman and two relievers. You could feasibly add a first baseman, a second baseman, a starting pitcher, and a righty-hitting platoon partner for Alex Verdugo to the list. It’s … a lot.

So this bold prediction says the Yankees will be aggressive in their one guaranteed year with Soto and attack their needs at the July 30 trade deadline, by making no fewer than four trades. I don’t mean minor trades for Triple-A depth either. I mean at least four trades for MLB players who step directly into the big-league roster and are expected to make a difference down the stretch.

Four trades at the deadline is heavy lifting but it’s not unprecedented. Just two years ago, the Yankees swung four trades at the deadline that netted Andrew Benintendi, Harrison Bader, Scott Effross, Frankie Montas, and Lou Trivino. The year before that, they made four deadline trades that brought Joey Gallo, Andrew Heaney, Clay Holmes, Joely Rodríguez, and Anthony Rizzo to the Bronx. Four trades for MLB help at the deadline is a lot, but it’s been done and it’s been done by Brian Cashman.

This deadline we’re going to say the Yankees will make at least four trades for MLB help, specifically adding two relievers, a third baseman, a starting pitcher, and a righty hitting outfielder. The Yankees need help, clearly, and the AL East title is there for the taking. So is the AL for that matter. The Junior Circuit feels wide open this season.

6. Kwan will finish with a .360 or better batting average

Guardians bat-to-ball wiz Steven Kwan entered the All-Star break with an MLB-best .352 batting average, the highest by a qualified hitter in the first half since, well, Luis Arraez hit .383 in the first half last season. But! But Arraez hit only (“only”) .314 in the second half, so he finished the season with a still exceptional .354 batting average, or better than Kwan is hitting right now.

Our next bold prediction says Kwan will have an even better second half than he did in the first, and finish the season with at least a .360 batting average. It has been a good long while since anyone hit .360 in a 162-game season. Here are the last five players to do it:

Ichiro’s second half in 2004 was the stuff of legends. We’re not predicting Kwan will be that good in the second half this year, but he will be better than he was in the first half, and finish the season as baseball’s first .360 hitter since Mauer’s MVP season. 

We can put numbers on this. Kwan missed a few weeks with an oblique injury earlier this season, otherwise he’s averaged 3.96 at-bats per game on the active roster. Cleveland has 67 games remaining. If he continues to average 3.96 at-bats per game, Kwan must hit .370 in those final 67 games to get his season batting average to .360. Considering he hit .377 through his first 67 games this year, we’re saying he can do it.

7. The Dodgers will set a record for pitchers used

As good as the Dodgers are — and they are very good — they are pushing the limits of their pitching depth. They have seven starting pitchers on the injured list (Walker Buehler, Tyler Glasnow, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Emmet Sheehan, Yoshinobu Yamamoto), and this past weekend they claimed Brent Honeywell off waivers from the Pirates on Saturday and had him start the bullpen game on Sunday. The pitching situation is dire in Chavez Ravine.

Including position players, the Dodgers have already used 31 pitchers this season, and that is not the most in baseball. The Brewers have used 32. The Brewers and Dodgers are both in first place, which goes to show using a lot of pitchers does not mean your season is circling the drain. It certainly is not something they want to do though. They’d rather have a set five-man rotation and a nice eight-man bullpen with 2-3 guys on the shuttle. That would be ideal. That would also be unrealistic.

Anyway, for this bold prediction we are saying the Dodgers will eventually jump the Brewers and not only use the most pitchers in baseball this season, they’ll set a record for most pitchers used in a season. They’re not far away! Here are the teams that have used the most pitchers in a single season:

1. 2019 Mariners: 42 pitchers
2. 2021 Mets: 42
3. 2021 Orioles: 42
4. 2022 Cubs: 42
5. Several tied with 41 (most recently 2023 Athletics)

The Dodgers only need to use 12 more pitchers to break the record and boy, they might do that by the end of next week. I’m only half-joking. For real though, Los Angeles is going to make moves at the trade deadline. They’re going to continue adding scrap-heap arms via waivers and free agency. They’re going to call up prospects. They’ll get Kershaw back soon enough. It’s not hard to see the Dodgers, even with all their talent, getting to a record 43 pitchers used in 2024. We’re boldly predicting it will happen.

8. Only three pitchers will reach 200 innings

The 200-inning workhorse is a dying breed. Last season only five pitchers threw 200 innings: Logan Webb (216), Zac Gallen (210), Gerrit Cole (209), Miles Mikolas (201 1/3), and Chris Bassitt (200). Go back five years to 2019, and 15 pitchers through 200 innings. Go back 10 years to 2014, and 34 pitchers reached 200 innings. Those numbers seem unfathomable now.

Attempts at injury prevention, the third time through the order penalty, and bullpen optimization are the primary culprits for the decline of the 200-inning starter. Like it or not — I don’t, but I don’t have a say in the matter — starters are throwing fewer innings, and it shows up in the lack of 200-inning pitchers. Here are the seasons with the fewest 200-inning pitchers, ignoring those shortened by the pandemic or work stoppages:

1. 2021: 4
2. 2023: 5
3. 2022: 8
4. 2018: 13
5. 2019: 15

Keep in mind that every team took special care to protect their pitchers in 2021, after the bizarre 60-game 2020 season. Point is, though, the five 162-game seasons with the fewest 200-inning pitchers are the last five 162-game seasons. There’s no reason to think that trend won’t continue in 2024. We’re predicting a record-low three 200-inning pitchers this year.

Who will those three pitchers be? Logan Gilbert seems like a safe bet since he leads the league with 132 1/3 innings, though the Mariners did pull him after only 87 low-stress pitches Sunday, suggesting they’re monitoring his workload a bit. Seth Lugo is second with 127 innings and Webb is third with 124 1/3 innings. I’m not sure who those three 200-inning pitchers will be. I’m just predicting there will only be three 200-inning pitchers, setting a new record low. Take it to the bank.

9. A 2024 draftee will reach MLB

Last year, Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel became the first player to make his MLB debut the year he was drafted since Garrett Crochet in 2020. Crochet was the first to do it since Brandon Finnegan with the Royals in 2014. It is a rare accomplishment, and we are boldly predicting it will happen again this year. The player: Texas A&M’s Chris Cortez, the Angels’ second-round pick.

The first player to reach the big leagues from the 2021 draft (Chase Silseth), 2022 draft (Zach Neto), and 2023 draft (Schanuel) were all Angels, so why wouldn’t the first player from the 2024 draft to reach the big leagues also be an Angel? Cortez, a right-hander, had a 2.78 ERA and 107 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings spread across three starts and 22 relief appearances for the Aggies this year. Here is MLB Pipeline’s scouting report on the young man:

With little effort, Cortez produces fastballs that park at 96-98 mph and peak at 100 with power sink that makes them almost impossible to lift. Hitters can’t try to sit on his heater because he also has a power slider that ranges from 86-92 mph with plenty of horizontal and vertical action. He doesn’t have much feel for an upper-80s changeup with modest fade and rarely uses it … Some clubs may consider trying him as a starter but a more realistic ceiling would be as a high-leverage reliever.

Why would the Angels, who entered the All-Star break with a 41-55 record and 10 games out of a postseason spot, rush a 2024 draftee to the big leagues? Well, this is the same team that traded several of their best prospects for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López last deadline, only to salary dump them on waivers a month later. It’s a bold prediction. It doesn’t have to make sense. It just has to happen.

10. A postseason berth will be decided via tiebreaker

Maybe this isn’t that bold considering how the 2022 NL East and 2023 AL West races were decided via tiebreaker. In those cases though, both teams were assured a postseason berth. The Braves won the NL East in 2022, but the Mets were still a wild-card team. The Astros won the AL West in 2023, but the Rangers were still a wild-card team. They were low-stakes tiebreakers.

For my final bold prediction, I’m going to say a postseason berth will again be decided via tiebreaker, and this time one team will make the tournament and the other goes home. The most likely scenario is the third wild-card spot, of course, but don’t rule out a division race. There’s a scenario were we get a tie for a division title, and the tiebreaker loser can’t fall back on a wild-card spot.

In the past such ties — winner goes to the postseason, loser goes home — would be broken with a winner-take-all Game 163. That is no longer the case. MLB did away with Game 163 tiebreakers two years ago and now all ties are broken mathematically, with head-to-head record the first tiebreaker). It’s too bad. Game 163 tiebreakers were a lot of fun.