Cal Raleigh catches Aaron Judge as MVP co-favorite, but what does Mariners slugger need to pass Yankees star?

For much of the 2025 MLB season, the AL MVP race was perceived to be Yankees superstar Aaron Judge with a huge lead and Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh hanging around on the periphery while he chased home run history. 

With just six games left for each player, the race seems be as close as ever — at least that’s what the odds are now telling us. 

Per FanDuel, as of Monday, look at these odds:

• Judge: -115
• Raleigh: -115

Yes, with one week left in the regular season, Vegas is saying the race is a dead heat. There are a few ways to view this. If you believe Raleigh is going to win, there’s still a chance to get in there with good odds, even if you would’ve been better served betting a few weeks ago. If you still believe Judge is going to win, these are the best odds you could have gotten at any point in the season. He was up well over -2000 earlier this season. 

The arguments are similar to what we’ve been seeing all season. We’ll still delve into them. First, though, the numbers:
[fWAR is Fangraphs’ version of WAR while bWAR is baseball-reference.com’s version] 

• Judge: .326/.451/.672 (209 OPS+), 29 2B, 2 3B, 49 HR, 105 RBI, 130 R, 12 SB, 9.2 fWAR, 9.0 bWAR
• Raleigh: .247/.360/.589 (169 OPS+), 22 2B, 0 3B, 58 HR, 121 RBI, 107 R, 14 SB, 8.8 fWAR, 6.9 bWAR

Judge’s case

Judge leads Raleigh in average by 79 points and OPS by 174 points. Even adjusted for ballpark — look at OPS+ — that’s a monster gulf. Judge leads the majors in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, WAR, etc. Basically, he’s easily the best rate-stat player there is. He’s also crossed the plate a ridiculous number of times, 130 in 146 games. You’ll see arguments like “where would the Mariners be without Raleigh,” but how could those be made in good faith without imagining the Yankees without Judge? They are only in the playoffs by four games right now. No Judge means they miss the playoffs. 

What is “value?” 

Sometimes people slap some qualifier on it that says the team needs to be good for a player to be valuable. Judge’s Yankees are better than Raleigh’s Mariners by one game right now. 

Other times, people say the most valuable player is simply the best player. It seems that there’s a pretty strong argument Judge is the best player. 

Is there Judge fatigue? He’s won two of the last three AL MVPs and sometimes people get tired of the same dude winning the hardware. Is there anti-New York bias? Probably in some parts of baseball fandom. 

If you only look at the stats without any of the background, though, Judge is the best player and his team has a better record. Shouldn’t that be what matters most? 

Raleigh’s case

Given the shortfall in rate stats, Raleigh’s case needs to narratively driven and have a bit extra context behind it. 

It has both. 

The Mariners haven’t won the AL West since 2001 while the Astros have dominated the division, having won the last seven full-season division titles. The Mariners are in position to win the division this time around and Raleigh has been their best and most important player. 

Further, we have to consider Raleigh playing catcher. It’s the most demanding defensive position in a landslide. He’s started 116 games behind the plate and 35 at designated hitter. The only catchers to log more innings at catcher this season are J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies and William Contreras of the Brewers. It’s difficult to gauge exactly how much value a catcher brings behind the plate, but Baseball Savant’s fielding run value has Raleigh at +7 and that ties him for seventh in baseball. Framing is a huge deal these days and Raleigh ranks sixth in framing value. 

Basically, he’s a very good defensive catcher and puts on the ol’ “tools of ignorance” an awful lot. 

Further, should we give more bonus points for the ballpark? 

In looking at the last three years of data, Seattle’s T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly park in all of baseball (Yankee Stadium is middle-of-the-road for runs but third in home runs). 

Despite the difficult circumstances, Raleigh has obliterated the previous record for home runs by a catcher with 58. The old record was 48. He’s set the new standard for a switch-hitter, breaking Mickey Mantle’s record of 54 that was set all the way back in 1961. 

Raleigh is now just two home runs away from a number that has long been sacred in baseball circles: 60 home runs. The only previous players to get to 60 were Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, Aaron Judge and three players with a PED cloud hanging over their head. To be clear, I still count the Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire years, but many people don’t believe this should count. 

Regardless, none of these players carried the demanding defensive assignment that Raleigh does. 

What if Raleigh does get to 60? Will this push a narrative-based vote toward Raleigh, especially with all the context behind his numbers? Isn’t there something to be said for history? 

We’ve seen voters go with a narrative-based vote before and Miguel Cabrera’s triple crown in 2012 comes to mind over Mike Trout. The difference, though, might be that Trout’s Angels missed the playoffs while we are very likely looking at two playoff teams this time around. Plus, Raleigh has the lead in homers and RBI here while Cabrera led in those. Trout was the WAR leader by a mile, but Cabrera had traditional stats. Judge has WAR and all the rate stats while Raleigh has home runs and RBI. It’s not a one-to-one comparison. 

How can Raleigh ‘steal’ the award? 

Again, the general vibe all season has been this is Judge’s award to lose and he hasn’t done anything to lose it. Raleigh could surge into “stealing” it, though, right? How might that happen? 

Well, I’ve been saying all along I think it boils down to the home run totals. 

Raleigh getting to 60 really moves the needle. Let’s keep in mind that Judge staying put at 49 might also help Raleigh. Seeing a clean “60” vs. a guy falling short of 50 might turn a few heads in the same way seeing “$99.99” on a price tag feels easier than “$100.” 

What if Raleigh continues to go crazy this coming week and gets up to 62 to pass Ruth and Maris? That still might carry some weight with voters inclined to dismiss Sosa, McGwire and Bonds. On that note, what if Raleigh gets to 63? That’s then the highest total ever in the American League and more than anyone who wasn’t connected to PEDs. 

I think 60 gives Raleigh a great chance, 62 probably clinches an MVP and 63 absolutely, 100% gets it to Raleigh. 

Watch those Raleigh home runs, and, to a lesser extent if Raleigh doesn’t get past 60, Judge’s. 

What’s left? 

The Mariners have six home games left. They start with three versus the Rockies. The Rockies obviously have brutal pitching numbers. Even if we took away Coors Field, the Rockies are dead last in the majors with a 5.42 road ERA. They’ve given up 108 home runs in 75 road games as a staff. After that, the Mariners close with the Dodgers, who obviously have a good pitching staff. It’s hard to judge what kind of staff the Dodgers will be using, as they’re likely going to have the NL West title sewn up while also preparing to start the Wild Card Series just a few days later. 

The Yankees also close with six home games. They get the White Sox and Orioles. It might not be as easy as it sounds with quality starters like Shane Smith, Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish set to face the Yankees. Still, the White Sox rank 20th in the majors in ERA after the All-Star break while the Orioles are 14th. It’s not exactly two stellar staffs working here. 

We have plenty of playoff stuff to sort out this coming week and that’s more important than the awards, but if we zeroed in on just the AL MVP race, it’s gotten really fun on the strength of Raleigh’s home run barrage. If that continues, he might just become the only Mariners player beside Ken Griffey Jr. and Ichiro Suzuki to ever win MVP.