Candid Coaches: Who’ll be more successful in next five years, Kentucky’s Mark Pope or Louisville’s Pat Kelsey?

CBS Sports college basketball insiders Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander spent a month surveying 100-plus Division I men’s basketball coaches for our annual Candid Coaches series. They polled across the sport’s landscape: some of the biggest names in college basketball, but also small-school assistants in low-major leagues. Coaches agreed to share unfiltered opinions in exchange for anonymity. We asked 10 questions and have been posting the results over a three-week span.

It’s uncommon to see rivals make a coaching change in the same cycle. But for Kentucky and Louisville to do it? The last time Louisville and Kentucky had coaching changes in men’s basketball in the same year was 1930 — the year Kentucky hired a 28-year-old named Adolph Rupp. 

But for these schools to make coaching changes under the circumstances we just witnessed? What an anomaly. Surely we’re never getting this again. Louisville is trying to emerge from the sludge of the program’s nadir after a horrid two-year experiment under Kenny Payne. The Cardinals tried to land Scott Drew, then thought they were getting Dusty May, but ultimately were forced to pivot to and pluck Pat Kelsey from Charleston. 

A week after Kelsey got to Louisville, John Calipari — still soiled in the aftermath of his latest disaster, a first round NCAA loss to Oakland — found an escape hatch to Fayetteville, Arkansas, and vacated his post in Lexington after 15 years. Kentucky tried, but failed, just like Louisville, to convince Drew to leave Baylor. Dan Hurley did the same. So, just like Louisville, Kentucky found itself forced into digging deeper to find its next coach. Enter: Mark Pope. 

In the months since, both fan bases have been significantly boosted by their new coaches. The vibes are outstanding right about now. A fierce rivalry gets a reset, with new stakes, and the years to come will be a lot of fun thanks to Kelsey and Pope’s styles of play and animated personalities.

And since this is Kentucky and Louisville, you know we had to ask the question. 

Who will be more successful over the next five years: Pat Kelsey or Mark Pope?

Quotes that stood out

Those who voted for Pope

• “Kentucky has a built-in stability to it that I don’t think Louisville does. Calipari’s teams there were so naturally variable, given the one-and-done recruiting model he made use of, but Pope will be able to attract top talent while also being able to take the ‘right’ guys, whether they are ranked 12th in the country or 88th. Coach Cal didn’t afford himself that opportunity, because of the recruiting arms race he put himself in year after year with Duke. Pope won’t have to face the same pressure to land top-1 or -2 recruiting classes, as long as he wins. Louisville, despite its resources and Pat Kelsey’s stellar track record, seems more prone to hot and cold spells, where recruits can waver. I still think Kelsey will be successful at Louisville, so this is not a knock on him, but I think Pope’s brand of basketball, and the freedom to recruit his kind of guys with the Kentucky brand behind him, will make them a force. Also helps to be able to poach excellent assistants, like Alvin Brooks III, etc.”
• “I’m going with Mark Pope because I’ve coached against him for years. I respect his work ethic and acumen as a coach. Very innovative offensively and far more passionate than people give him credit for. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a run at a Final Four sooner rather than later.”
• “Both have won at low-major and mid-major level, which I greatly respect. Pope. Better job.”
• “The next five years is really specific. If you look at it 10 years from now and said Kelsey went to two Final Fours in 10 years, Louisville people would appreciate that. If you said Mark Pope went to three Final Fours in 10 years and never won a championship, Kentucky people would be pissed. But if you look at the history books, every good, competent coach has won a championship at Kentucky if given less than a decade to do it.”
• “Pope at Kentucky because it’s his school. I think there’s something to your school and the backing and the energy and the Kelsey thing, I think, has a shelf life.”
• “I think Kelsey might have quicker success but I think Pope will be more consistent over the long haul. This is more due to the specific schools than these guys individually. Kentucky has the SEC while Louisville has an uncertain future with the ACC. Inevitably the SEC and Big Ten are going to rule the sport, and a place like Kentucky, with its resources, tradition and backing should continue to be at the very top of the college basketball food chain.”
• “Going to go with Pope by a hair. Both will win, just think Pope is more creative offensively and Kentucky should be able to attract higher-caliber players. Kelsey has won, but he’s also had by far the two best jobs in his league in Winthrop and Charleston. That won’t be the case at Louisville.”
• “Pope. He has proven his coaching ability at a higher level and there’s a chance that Kelsey’s schtick won’t work/last.”
• “Believe his style is more sustainable. Twice in the last four years Kelsey has been beat by his own kids to the portal. Winthrop kids were leaving no matter what. And same with Charleston players. Both VERY good coaches. Awesome energy. Kelsey plays A LOT of guys and that frustrates main dudes, not getting enough minutes.”
• “Tough question. Will go with Pope since I think Kentucky is a better job and in a better league. But Kelsey will definitely get Louisville back to relevance quickly.”
• “It’s Kentucky, first and foremost. Secondly, that dude can coach. His offense is fun to watch. Louisville will always be the little brother.”

Those who voted for Kelsey

• “Louisville is in a league that isn’t as powerful top to bottom in resources or stability. They can rise up fast with NIL and their pedigree. Their recent ups and downs leads to big momentum even with a few tourney appearances. A few tourney appearances at Kentucky is hot seat.”
• “I see both being average but if I had to go with one it would be with Kelsey, mostly because he can gain momentum quick with how poorly they have been.”
• “I think he’s really good. I think he can coach, he’s had success at the schools he’s been at. Not saying Pope didn’t, but I think he will. The fact that he’s following Calipari, that’s not going to help him.”
• “Nothing against Mark, but Pat’s energy and work ethic will be embraced at Louisville and the bar is lower there now.”
• “I would give Kelsey the slight edge in being more successful over the next five years. This is mostly because of the leagues that each play in. I believe Louisville along with Duke and North Carolina are far and away the three best jobs in the ACC and that gap has widened even more with the advent of NIL. While Kentucky is obviously still a top-three job in the SEC, I think the gap between Kentucky and the rest of the league is far smaller than it has ever been, especially with NIL closing that gap even more. The financial commitment that the other SEC schools are making are far greater than the other schools in the ACC.”
• “Pat Kelsey. They both will be successful but what he is following will make him look really good. Mark Pope and that pressure cooker with the expectations is going to make it look not as good.” 
• “This is based off the perception of success to where each programs floor currently is. Kelsey needs to make Sweet 16s to be deemed successful in Louisville, but Pope has about three years to make a Final Four or they’ll be looking to make a change. Following Calipari is a beast of a task. In Kelsey’s first two years he can do no wrong after what Louisville has been through. Not to mention, in recent years, behind Carolina and Duke, the ACC has not been near as tough of a conference as the SEC. “
• “It’s hard to follow any type of Calipari-type success. At this point Louisville is just trying to get back to the tournament and be relevant again.”

The takeaway

This is the second time in three years we’ve had a question of this ilk. In 2021, before either man had sat on the sideline as a head coach, we surveyed the nation and asked coaches which program they believed would be in a better position by 2026: Duke under Jon Scheyer or North Carolina under Hubert Davis?

That was a 71/29 split in favor of Duke under Scheyer. Truth is, you can make a strong case for either coach right now. The jury is still out on that question — for at least eight more months. 

I think there’s a good chance we’ll be saying the same thing once Pope and Kelsey are three years into their tenures. Each job has huge opportunity but also a variety of factors that could hold either coach back. Pope has the ardent support of the most passionate fan base in the sport, while Kelsey has the benefit of a much more gracious entry point to what’s still considered a top-10 job under normal circumstances (though “normal circumstances” at Louisville haven’t been a thing for more than a decade at this point).

Coaches voted the way they did for a variety of reasons, but in my polling I think the two most common reasons for Pope winning here stemmed from 1) Kentucky’s status as a top-three program in the country, and 2) Pope’s experience at BYU and in the Big 12 making for an easier transition than Kelsey’s mid-major path to U of L. That said, both have yet to win an NCAA Tournament game. The idea that Kentucky AND Louisville would hire coaches in the same offseason that were void of any morsel of March Madness success is still shocking.

Regardless of which coach winds up being more successful, it’s exciting and refreshing to see these schools get hard resets in the same offseason. Calipari’s act wore way too thin in Lexington; he needed out and they needed him out. Pope’s affable approach — and being an alum — has rejuvenated Big Blue Nation in a way many probably didn’t see once it was clear Hurley was never taking that job. He flipped a huge portion of that fan base in basically 72 hours. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Kelsey’s even more outspoken and energetic than the lively Pope, which should bring on some enthusiasm in a rivalry that’s been too one-sided for a long time. (Kentucky is 13-3 in its last 16 against the Cards.) These two will be judged by their annual matchup in December, but more than that they’ll be judged by NCAA Tournament appearances, wins and Final Four-caliber rosters. The expectation level is higher at Kentucky than it is at Louisville, but because of that, you can make the case it’s Pope who has the bigger task ahead of him.

I know both fan bases are eager as hell to see what the next era looks like. Optimism hasn’t emanated from Lexington and Louisville to this level in the same offseason in a very long time. 

Kelsey and Pope are more alike than they are different, which should give the rivalry some fun moments and inevitable memes in the months to come. But bumpy times are almost definitely awaiting over the next couple of years. Optimism is for the offseason, and then the games must be played. Which program endures the rockier road? Which coach handles the inevitable challenges better? That’s when we’ll get our answer. 

I suspect it’s going to take at least three years — if not longer — before we know. Beyond that, I expect both programs to be better off five years from now than are today, with Pope and Kelsey still comfortably employed in the Bluegrass State.

Previously in Candid Coaches …

• Who will be this season’s best team?
• Who will be this season’s best player?
• Who was the best coaching hire this offseason?
• What is the most amount of NIL money somebody has asked you or your staff to pay for a player?  
• Which programs do you believe have the best NIL situations?
• Should players who don’t transfer receive a bonus year of eligibility?
• Will a woman coach a D-I men’s team by 2030?