Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford fight predictions, expert picks for epic event in Las Vegas

Terence Crawford will challenge Saul “Canelo” Alvarez for the undisputed super middleweight championship on Saturday in Las Vegas. What was once thought of as a wildly unrealistic idea is now here as the pair of fighters headline the first combat sports event to take place at Allegiant Stadium — home of the NFL’s Las Vegas Raiders.

Crawford has plenty of history at stake on Saturday. The native of Omaha, Nebraska, earned undisputed status in two divisions — junior welterweight and welterweight — and boasts an incredible resume. His biggest win came back in 2023 when he demolished fellow unbeaten Errol Spence Jr. to earn all four titles at 147 pounds in one of the biggest fights of the year. Now, Crawford can become the first fighter to accomplish the feat in three divisions with a win on Saturday.

Alvarez has not exactly made fans happy in the last few years with his choice in opponents. The undisputed champ has faced the likes of unknown John Ryder, former junior middleweight champion Jermell Charlo who moved up two weight classes, fellow countrymen Jaime Munguia, a fairly undeserving Edgar Berlanga and then William Scull as a mandatory to earn his IBF title back that he was stripped of. Now, he seems to be earning back some good will with taking on a fellow pound for pound great, but Crawford is also moving up (at least) two divisions as well. However, the images from the faceoffs might tell a different story as Crawford has looked as big, if not bigger, than Alvarez throughout the build to the fight.

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The undercard features some rising contenders and names to get more familiar with in the space. Callum Walsh has been pegged for greatness since he began his career in Ireland a few years ago. Now, the rising Irish star gets a showcase opportunity on a massive stage when he takes on Fernando Vargas Jr. at junior middleweight. Plus, a potential future titleholder for Alvarez or Crawford to worry about is in a featured bout when interim WBC super middleweight champion Christian M’billi takes on Lester Martinez.

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With such a massive main event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card. Let’s take a closer look at the rest of the undercard with the latest odds before getting to the picks.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Canelo Alvarez (c) -160 vs. Terence Crawford +130, undisputed super middleweight title
• Callum Walsh -335 vs. Fernando Vargas Jr. +240, junior middleweights
• Christian M’billi (c) -205 vs. Lester Martinez +150, interim WBC super middleweight title
• Mohammed Alakel -3000 vs. John Ornelas +1100, lightweights
• Serhii Bohachuk -560 vs. Brandon Adams +370, super welterweights
• Ivan Dychko -120 vs. Jermaine Franklin -105, heavyweights
• Reito Tsutsumi -5000 vs. Javier Martinez +1500, super featherweights
• Sultan Almohamed vs. Martin Caraballo, light welterweights
• Steven Nelson -320 vs. Raiko Santana +240, light heavyweights

Canelo vs. Crawford predictions

Brian Campbell: Weight classes are there for a reason. And great big men almost never lose to equally great little men. This has largely been the refrain from anyone picking Alvarez to stop Crawford’s bid to become the first three-time, four-belt undisputed champion in boxing history. But both of those are only partly true and depend upon the fighters in question. The main argument on the other side — that if anyone can do it, Crawford can — is something I happen to actually agree with. But even that doesn’t mean the final result is automatic. Two all-time great fighters will share the ring on Saturday. But the one major narrative my prediction can’t support is the idea that Alvarez has lost enough of a step physically (not to mention his hunger to fight, altogether) and that he’s a sitting duck to be upset despite the fact that he’s bigger, stronger, younger and has been far more active over the past two years (fighting four times to just once for Crawford). 

Has Alvarez been coasting just a bit, allowing lesser competition to go the distance against him while outright ducking a showdown with unbeaten David Benavidez? Yes. It’s true. So is the fact that outside of his 2022 loss to light heavyweight king Dmitry Bivol, Alvarez hasn’t faced an opponent truly capable of upending him in a very long time. But Alvarez isn’t where he is right now as the sport’s biggest star and richest active competitor without knowing how to turn it on and off when it matters. 

Even though Crawford will be two years shy of turning 38 on fight night and is making his debut at 168 pounds after moving up two weight classes, I still believe he will be competitive and difficult. Crawford can switch stances at will, is as smart and sharp of a puncher that boxing has seen in years and has a pronounced backbone which could allow him to give-and-trade at times if he picks his spots. This dream fight wouldn’t be a reality if there wasn’t a legitimate chance that Crawford could win it. But those chances seem to heavily involve the belief that Alvarez can’t fight hard for 12 full rounds or has lost enough of a step that he might be outworked by a fighter three years his senior. 

Expect Alvarez to use not only his body attack but his penchant for beating up the arms of his opponents by brutalizing their guard with heavy hooks to slow down Crawford’s inevitable movement. Alvarez has one of the best chins in boxing history, which makes an upset stoppage unlikely. As long as he makes sure Crawford feels his physical advantages and makes him pay for taking chances, this remains a fight that Alvarez very much should win. Pick: Canelo via unanimous decision

Brent Brookhouse: I feel like I’ve been on a roller coaster in the past few months. Initially, it seemed impossible that Crawford would jump multiple weight classes to defeat one of the greatest fighters of his era. Crawford didn’t appear to carry his full power up to junior middleweight when he faced Madrimov in a fight Madrimov nearly won. So, why should we expect Crawford to be more physically capable moving up another two weight classes? Plus, Crawford has been relatively inactive, having fought just once since July 2023.

Then again, Alvarez hasn’t exactly looked his best over the past several years. That doesn’t mean he’s been pushed to the brink of defeat since the Bivol fight, but a performance as dreadful as the Scull fight, where the fighters combined for the fewest punches thrown in a 12-round fight in CompuBox history and Alvarez threw the second fewest of any fighter, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. A fighter as good as Crawford eats any boxer who shows up that uninspired alive. Oh, and Alvarez hasn’t scored a stoppage in seven fights.

Then I realized I was spending so much time thinking about the few negatives of two great fighters. In the end, both men should be as up and ready as possible for a fight this big. Alvarez is a genius boxer who knows he can’t fight Crawford like he could sleepwalk through the Scull fight. And Crawford may not carry all his power up to super middleweight, but he’s as gifted a boxer as the sport has and can work around that and play to his strengths.

In the end, I do think weight classes matter. Alvarez is used to fighting at 168, he has taken big punches from big men and not crumbled. Crawford has not tasted the same level of pop and we don’t know what it looks like when Alvarez lands thudding body shots and connects to the chin. Crawford has a great beard, but the unknowns rest with him far more than Alvarez and that’s why I’ve come to my final conclusion. Pick: Canelo via unanimous decision

Brandon Wise: I’m still not convinced that Alvarez still has it as an elite fighter. Each of his last five fights has left fans walking away wondering “that’s it?” Alvarez has failed to put down mid-tier opponents or even really threat to drop them, and that includes the likes of John Ryder, Jermell Charlo (coming up two weight classes), Jaime Munguia (who then suffered a brutal KO loss two fights later) and Edgar Berlanga (who also suffered a brutal knockout loss in his most recent outing). The raw skills will always be there and facing another opponent coming up two divisions should slightly favor the man who has fought at 168 pounds since 2018. But I remember hearing similar doubts about Crawford heading into the Spence fight about size and speed. What happens if Crawford comes out and gets Alvarez’s attention early with a vicious combo? Does Alvarez shell up and try to grind out a decision or does he try to fight fire with fire? If the latter is true, I trust Crawford and his switch-hitting style to frustrate Alvarez, who can be plodding at times. Crawford has always been right there with Alvarez, Oleksandr Usyk and Naoya Inoue in the pound for pound conversation. I think Saturday sees a massive step in Crawford cementing himself as an all-time great. Pick: Crawford via split decision

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