Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford fight preview: Tale of the tape, fighter records, stats, what’s at stake

One of the biggest superfights of the century will take place on Saturday in Las Vegas when Mexican icon Canelo Alvarez defends his undisputed super middleweight championship against the unbeaten, four-division champion Terence Crawford. 

The fight between two future Hall of Famers, which will mark the first combat sports event at Allegiant Stadium, doubles as the inaugural boxing fight promoted by Dana White and UFC in their new deal with powerful financier Turki Alalshikh and Saudi Arabia. The bout will also air free to subscribers on Netflix (9 p.m. ET), without an added pay-per-view upcharge, which means it could become one of the most watched fights since 2024’s Jake Paul-Mike Tyson (65 million concurrent streams on Netflix) and 1978’s Muhammad Ali-Leon Spinks rematch (90 million viewers on ABC). 

Not only will Crawford, who captured a 154-pound title in his debut last summer, be moving up an additional two weight divisions to challenge Alvarez, he will look to become the first three-division undisputed champion of the four-belt era. 

Alvarez, meanwhile, will put his 11-0 record at 168 pounds on the line and will carry the pressure that comes with being the bigger man and slight betting favorite despite whispers in recent years from critics that he has lost his hunger to compete at the highest level.

The undercard features some rising contenders and names to get more familiar with in the space. Callum Walsh has been pegged for greatness since he began his career in Ireland a few years ago. Now, the rising Irish star gets a showcase opportunity on a massive stage when he takes on Fernando Vargas Jr. at junior middleweight. Plus, a potential future titleholder for Alvarez or Crawford to worry about is in a featured bout when interim WBC super middleweight champion Christian M’billi takes on Lester Martinez.

Let’s take a look at how these pound-for-pound greats match up in this 168-pound showdown.

What’s at stake in Canelo vs. Crawford? 

The opportunity that Crawford has garnered for himself to add all four of Alvarez’s super middleweight world titles gives him, essentially, a chance to double down on his own legacy. Not only is Crawford unbeaten and has won titles in four divisions, a daring move like this up an additional two weight classes against someone as critically renowned as Alvarez would be a legendary move akin to Roy Jones Jr. winning a heavyweight title or Sugar Ray Leonard returning from a nearly four-year retirement to capture the middleweight title in his debut against Marvin Hagler. 

If Crawford pulls this off, he could see himself included historically among the pound-for-pound best in the sport’s history, which appears to be worth the risk of putting his unbeaten record at stake in a matchup in which he is giving away so much size, youth and power to his equally great opponent.

For Alvarez, whose 20-year career and incredible 12-year run as a premier pay-per-view star has him on the verge of consideration as the greatest Mexican boxer in history, the stakes are more about holding serve than adding on. 

Surely, Alvarez would benefit from both the incredible purse (rumored to be between $100 and $150 million) and the opportunity to put Crawford’s name and perfect record on his resume with a win. But given that Alvarez has been criticized for outright ducking unbeaten David Benavidez in recent years, defeating Crawford would prevent him from taking a high-profile loss against an older and smaller boxer that could be damaging, from a short-term level, to his legacy. 

Crawford, who is only rumored to be making $10 million for the fight, could also propel himself even further from a financial standpoint, given the current climate of Alalshikh overpaying for marquee fights, into as many superfights as “Bud” is willing to accept before retiring.

Who has the edge in Canelo vs. Crawford? 

1. Power: Regardless of who experts are picking, most have maintained the same working statement when talking about this fight: “If anyone can do it, Crawford can.” And that appears to have the same meaning from the standpoint of whether Crawford’s punching power could possibly carry with him up to 168 pounds. Crawford’s power isn’t anywhere near Alvarez’s from the standpoint of one-punch knockout power. But Crawford is both quick and pinpoint accurate. He has also bulked up strategically over the past two years from the end of his welterweight days for a fight like this. Either way, however, the edge still falls firmly in Alvarez’s favor. He’s a murderous body puncher and one of the most accurate and efficient counterpunchers in the game. Alvarez also has a reputation of throwing heavy punches purposely into the arms and shoulders of his opponents, not just to cause injury but to wear them down physically. Crawford only wins this fight if he can withstand Alvarez’s power. And even though Alvarez hasn’t scored a stoppage win since 2021, the power is very much still there. Advantage: Alvarez

2. Speed: Without question, this is the advantage that is most important to whatever kind of success Crawford can have. As the rare boxer historically who is just as dangerous from the orthodox and southpaw stance, Crawford’s footwork — even at this advanced age — should be dramatically better than Alvarez. While Alvarez’s hand speed is still strong, he’s not on Crawford’s level. And Crawford’s ability to jump in and out against his more flat-footed opponent could become the story of this fight for as long as he can survive in punching range. Advantage: Crawford

3. Defense: The topic of ring IQ doesn’t come up enough when comparing the defensive strengths of two elite fighters. Alvarez has been a P4P stalwart for nearly a decade, has carried his own strengths with him in moving up multiple weight classes and has evolved his style to become more efficient along the way. And even though Alvarez’s lone elite weakness has long been his slow feet, he has done a great job offsetting that with head and upper trunk movement to slickly avoid shots while staying directly in the pocket. That doesn’t mean Alvarez doesn’t get hit, however. And that’s a big reason why the edge, in this case, has to go to Crawford, who just might have the highest ring IQ of any fighter in the game today and remains one of the top defensive fighters statistically (he’s ranked 8th by CompuBox in fewest punches landed by his opponents per round). Crawford rarely gives an inch yet always remains in position to take a mile. And a massive part of that is because of his footwork and how little damage he has taken over his career. Advantage: Crawford

4. Technique: Both of these boxers remain among the highest P4P-ranked in the game today despite their current ages because of how sharp, accurate and thoughtful they both are as natural counterpunchers. From a head-to-head standpoint, however, it might be easier to favor Crawford because of his ability to switch stances and the slightly wider array of punches he has in his arsenal. But Alvarez is simply no slouch in this department and his inherent power advantage might just level the playing field from standpoint of overall technique considering both are intelligent, efficient and incredibly adaptive to their opponent’s style. To discount Alvarez’s credentials in this area would be to miss out on exactly what makes him great. Advantage: Even

5. Intangibles: As the naturally bigger and sturdier fighter with a legendarily strong chin, it might be easy to sum up this category by pointing out everything from Alvarez’s size and power advantages to the fact that he’s younger and has been far more active than Crawford in recent years. But Alvarez is also in year 20 of a pro career that began as a teenager and is closing in on 70 total rights. The true intangible between them might just come down to mindset and hunger. Yes, Alvarez can turn it on when he needs to, even if it has appeared that he has been coasting in recent years by taking on lesser competition and allowing them to go the distance. But a quick look at the reported financial disparity between the two purses in the fight and the fact that Crawford, who turns 38 in two weeks, is still trying to prove to his critics just how great he truly is has to be strongly factored in. Crawford doesn’t just carry a mean streak like no other in the game, he seems to thrive upon the idea of being doubted, which likely makes him the most dangerous opponent to challenge Alvarez since Bivol outpointed him in 2022. Unlike recent Alvarez opponents, who seemed to transition to survival mode as soon as they were knocked down, Crawford is motivated to find a way to win no matter the circumstances. He’s a real dog, in every sense of the term. Advantage: Crawford 

Who wins Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford and which method of victory prop could bring a massive return? Join SportsLine here to see which bets you need to make for the fight, all from the accomplished veteran combat sports analyst who has consistently delivered winners.