College football betting: Week 11 bets to make now or later according to expert, including BYU vs. Texas Tech

Each Sunday during the season, I will preview some of the bigger college football games early in the week, give my initial lean, and recommend to either bet it early or wait for a better line. Just for clarification, I will always mention if I already bet the game personally so there is no confusion. 

My official Week 11 plays will be out later in the week and I will also post all my picks in the SportsLine Discord as soon as I bet them. This article is more about giving advice so you can get the best number in the higher-profile games every Saturday. 

Here are my early thoughts on the Week 11 matchups.

BYU Cougars (+9.5) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

On paper, it feels like you should run to bet BYU at +9.5. The Cougars enter this matchup of Big 12 heavyweights unbeaten and off a bye week. However, the market has been extremely high on Texas Tech all season and we are seeing that again with this line. 

The Red Raiders opened -9 and the number has moved to 9.5 at the time this article was written. I think this line gets to 10.5 or 11.5 before we see some buyback on BYU. The reason for this is because pro bettors simply have Texas Tech rated a lot higher than the Cougars, even though they are undefeated. 

I’m staying away from this game personally. However, my advice is if you like the underdog, be patient. I think you will be able to get BYU as a double-digit dog. If you are on Texas Tech this week, I would grab the 9.5 to stay under the key number of 10. I don’t believe you will get a better line during the week.

Wait: BYU +10.5 or better

Oregon Ducks (-5.5) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

I like Oregon at the opening line of 5.5. I understand Iowa is always dangerous as a home dog and the Hawkeyes almost upset Indiana earlier this year. The difference for me is the spot. The Hoosiers were coming off a big win over Illinois and in a letdown spot the following week at Iowa. Oregon is coming off a bye and should be better prepared to avoid the upset. And remember, Indiana was -9.5 in that matchup. 

I do think we will see money come in on the Hawkeyes at some point. Bettors love a home dog and Iowa has a history of upsetting top teams at Kinnick Stadium. This isn’t a great Hawkeyes team though, and I don’t want to overreact to Iowa blasting an average Minnesota team at home two weeks ago. Oregon isn’t Minnesota. 

I do think we see this line go up before it comes back towards the Hawkeyes. I expect a razor focused Oregon team on Saturday after a lackluster effort against Wisconsin at home before the bye. Dan Lanning is an excellent coach and while it’s always dangerous to lay points in Iowa, I see some value on the Ducks at -5.5.

Bet: Oregon -5.5

TCU (-5.5) vs. Iowa State

I gave out TCU -3 last Friday on the early line. I have been waiting for this spot and I wanted to protect against Iowa State losing at home to Arizona State and the line re-opening higher. Well, the Cyclones lost and the number went from -3 to -5.5. 

I would still consider the Horned Frogs at that number. I make TCU -7 at home against an Iowa State squad that is reeling after four straight losses. The Cyclones haven’t been the same since losing both starting corners to season-ending injuries. During the four-game slide, Iowa State is allowing 31.2 points per game. Things won’t get any easier this week against Josh Hoover and the explosive TCU offense. 

Iowa State has been profitable as an underdog under head coach Matt Campbell. However, this isn’t a very good Cyclones team right now. Iowa State lost to Colorado. Since that game, the Buffs have been outscored 105-24!

I don’t think we will see a major line shift here. My guess is it will go up to 6.5 before settling. Still, this is one of my favorite spots of the season, so I would grab TCU -5.5 early.

Bet: TCU -5.5