College Football Playoff Rankings reaction: Miami’s rise complicates Notre Dame’s picture-perfect CFP case

Since starting the season 0-2 with last-second losses to major playoff contenders, Notre Dame has settled in as one of the most reliable teams in college football. The Irish sit at No. 9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings with only games against bottom feeders Syracuse and Stanford remaining. 

But as top contenders fall off the board, an unexpected complication is entering the playoff picture for the Irish… Miami. The Hurricanes were dead in the water after a 2-2 midseason stretch with losses to unranked opponents, which seemed to keep them out of playoff contention. However, after wins by a combined score of 79-17 over the past two weeks, Miami suddenly rose up to No. 13 in the CFP Rankings.

And now, Miami’s 27-24 victory over Notre Dame in the season opener is suddenly the proverbial elephant in the room in Grapevine, Texas. 

Miami stunned Notre Dame with a last-second field goal to win the opener, a season-defining moment for Mario Cristobal’s program. However, fortunes flipped midseason. Miami lost to unranked Louisville and SMU by a combined nine points. Notre Dame went on a dominant eight-game winning streak, headlined by double-digit wins over No. 15 USC and Pittsburgh. The run penciled Notre Dame into the playoff field with Miami on the outside. But with the gap closing, the separation is getting harder to defend. 

In the formal CFP protocols, the committee lists head-to-head competition as one of its top criteria, along with strength of schedule, comparative outcomes of common opponents and other relevant factors. 

The key phrase, though, is that the committee will use this to distinguish “otherwise comparable teams.” At this point, for whatever reason, the committee has not found them comparable. 

“I think when you look at Notre Dame and Miami, we really compare the losses of those two teams,” new CFP chair Hunter Yurachek said. “Miami has lost to two unranked teams and Notre Dame has lost to two teams that are ranked in our top 13. We really haven’t compared those two teams. They haven’t really been in similar comparative pools to date.”

As someone who has participated in the CFP Mock Selection Committee a few times, let me translate for a moment. The committee votes for spots in threes for spots 1-9, and considers up to six teams at a time. That allows them to best utilize the data and tools that they have available to them. 

College Football Playoff: Lessons learned evaluating teams as a member of the mock selection committee

Shehan Jeyarajah

So based on the rankings that members bring to the table, Notre Dame has always been considered with the top 12 teams. Miami is stuck in the 13th spot, notably behind No. 11 BYU and No. 12 Utah. Would that change if the Hurricanes were treated as a team caught between 6 and 12? It’s hard to say. 

Let’s go back to the formal CFP protocols. Miami takes the edge in head-to-head. Both programs beat mutual opponent NC State, though the Hurricanes’ performance was more impressive. Miami previously destroyed future Notre Dame opponents Syracuse and Stanford, while the Hurricanes have yet to play Pitt, which the Irish beat. As for strength of schedule, the SportsLine rankings have Miami (32) with a slightly better schedule than Notre Dame (34). 

Now of course, the gap between the losses is significant. Notre Dame has some of the best losses in the country. At the same time, a College Football Playoff case built on impressive losses probably won’t make anyone feel settled. 

The analytic systems love how consistent Notre Dame has been, and rightfully so. Since the 0-2 start, they’ve won every game by multiple scores. They’ve clearly improved in the defensive secondary, the unit that doomed them to their 0-2 start. If these two teams played today, sure, Notre Dame would probably be favored. I’d even pick them to win. 

But, that’s not really the point. The Fighting Irish are getting a lot of credit for what they’ve almost done. And that’s not really in the spirit of sports. 

For a second, put Miami to the side. Notre Dame ranks ahead of Alabama because of loss quality, even though the Tide have four wins against top 25 teams (including No. 4 Georgia on the road). They’re ahead of 9-1 BYU, even though the Cougars’ only loss is against No. 5 Texas Tech on the road, and they have a better win than the Irish. 

Notre Dame has recovered from 0-2 to put together a playoff-worthy season. But even if the Irish earn their way into the field — as Miami stays home with the same record — the double standard is hard to ignore. 

Miami’s outlook from CBS Sports bowls expert Brad Crawford:

Two outcomes in Week 12 hindered Miami — Navy‘s win over South Florida and Oklahoma‘s win at Alabama. Already ahead of Miami in the at-large discussion last week, Oklahoma leaped into the top 10 with the victory, while USF’s title hopes in the American as the perceived Group of Six favorite took a major hit.

It weakened the impact of Miami’s 49-12 win over the Bulls back on Sept. 13, as well. That was shaping up to be a quality victory that would’ve been earned had USF won out, took the American title and earned the No. 12 seed in the final bracket.

So, what are Miami’s biggest needs going forward?

In an ideal situation for the Hurricanes, any of theses scenarios — accompanied by winning out against Virginia Tech and Pitt — would unfold to guarantee a spot in the bracket.

• Win the ACC Championship Game: To get that opportunity, Miami needs six dominoes to fall in conference play over the final two weeks of the regular season — Virginia beats Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh beats Georgia Tech, Duke beats North Carolina, SMU beats Louisville, Cal beats SMU and Wake Forest beats Duke. That would put Virginia (7-1 in ACC) and Miami (6-2) in Charlotte with the Hurricanes holding four-way tiebreakers advantages over Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and SMU.
• Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or Stanford: A 9-3 finish for the Fighting Irish will eliminate them from the playoff conversation as it currently stands given the number of at-large teams that will have a better record (Miami included).
• Texas Tech winning the Big 12 along with BYU losing before the league title game or getting blown out by the Red Raiders in the final.
• USC loses to Oregon this weekend: If the Trojans upset the Ducks and create a logjam of possible 10-2 teams in the Big Ten, that’s troubling for the Hurricanes in the at-large discussion.
• Alabama loses at Auburn or Oklahoma suffers a loss against Missouri or LSU: The SEC is going to be a five-bid league unless the Crimson Tide or Sooners lose once more.