College football Week 6 betting notes: Expert finds betting value by analyzing spread trends

Throughout the years, I’ve been often surprised by how many handicappers attack the weekly slate of games looking for all sorts of angles and trends, many of them statistically-based, as they seek clues for the upcoming card. That’s fine, but it should probably be accompanied by a simple measurable that can prove most beneficial to handicapping the upcoming slate of games, yet often overlooked. 

I have long believed that before tackling the weekly slate, a quick review of how teams are performing vs. the spread, specifically an easy-to-use list of current spread streaks, win and lose, should be the first step in scoping the weekly card. 

Why? Identifying just a handful of streaking point spread teams, win or loss, early in their ascents or descents, can often make the difference between a winning and losing season for the handicapper. There’s nothing better than pegging a streak and riding that trend for as long as it lasts.

Invariably, there are several of those spread streaks each season — the key as always is to identify them early enough to take advantage. Every five-or-six-game spread streak was once a one or two-game, streak. This is why we like to identify all teams on as brief as a two-game win streak vs. the spread, as the next teams to reach three, four, five, six, seven or more spread covers in a row are always embedded in that grouping. 

Into October, we have a good enough sampling of games to begin charting these streaks on a weekly basis. Here are the current point spread streaks heading into this weekend’s action. 

Point spread win streaks

5: Louisiana Tech, Mississippi State Memphis, Utah State

4: Iowa, James Madison, Texas Tech

3: Alabama, Ball State, Boise State, Ole Miss, North Texas, Oklahoma, UNLV, Virginia

2: Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Colorado, Delaware, Duke, Hawaii, Kennesaw State, Miami-Fla, Michigan, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Oregon, Rice, San Diego State, South Carolina, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan

Point spread losing streaks

4: Clemson, Georgia, Georgia State, Penn State, Sam Houston, SMU

3: Air Force, Appalachian State, Arkansas, Baylor, Florida, Jacksonville State, Nevada, USC

2: Arkansas State, Army, Boston College, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico State, North Carolina State, Northern Illinois, Pittsburgh, South Alabama, Stanford, Tennessee, Texas State, UTEP, West Virginia, Wyoming

Away From Spread ratings

Now into October, and beyond most of the many FBS vs. FCS mismatches and distorted final scores, we can effectively introduce Away From Spread (“AFS”) calculations to this weekly offering. As noted earlier, what AFS analysis strives to accomplish is identifying potential soft spots, both for good and bad, for teams that are either being underrated, or overrated, by the oddsmakers. By measuring results away from the point spread, we can get a better feel of how accurately the oddsmakers, and by extension the college football betting marketplace, are rating these teams. 

This calculation is a further refinement and goes beyond the basic spread win/loss records (and accompanying streaks), which remain are the most important measurable every week. Yet a team that wins back-to-back games by, say, 21 points as a 7-point favorite in each contest can be said to be overachieving vs. expectation; by landing +14 points from the spread each week over both games in a two-week span, said team is +28 points ATS across that span, or +14 per week. Conversely, a 7-point underdog on consecutive weeks that loses each game by 21 points would be -28 ATS across that span, or -14 per week — significantly underachieving against the spread. 

As with any such calculation, finding appropriate parameters is important. We have found over the years that a two-week running average is often the best indicator of what might happen in the next game; a three-week average, though potentially more revealing, also stretches back a bit further and values results equally from two games before.

The college football season is relatively short, and history has shown us that the sooner to potentially identify these trailing AFS numbers, the better, and the two-game average is a more immediate reflection of form than a three-game average. 

Of course, the two-game average is open to more distortions by a particularly lopsided score, so what we have done in this calculation is note teams (accompanied by an asterisk) that have had at least one of their past two results land 21 points or more away from the spread. Indiana’s recent 63-10 thrashing of Illinois is one such example. That was a result so lopsided it will obviously mandate that each side is in any such two-week calculation, so we simply note that distorted score line in the listings. It’s worth noting that both the Hoosiers and Fighting Illini reversed the spread results in their games following the 63-10 blowout (Indiana faied to cover vs. Iowa, Illinois won and covered vs. USC). Thus, teams can appear on the “+” side of the two-week running average that might have lost a point spread decision within that span, just as a team on the “-” side might have a spread win. Though, as always, view these and other measurables with a degree of discretion. 

The new AFS calculation still includes a handful of mismatch results vs. FCS foes, games that are about to disappear from the upcoming schedules. As we didn’t want to wait any longer to begin noting the weekly AFS numbers, some FBS teams are still going to have recorded AFS results vs. FCS-level teams. Moving forward, the results vs. FCS teams will almost universally drop off from any two-week AFS calculation. 

Thus, following are updated AFS lists, both on the plus (+) and minus (-) sides, using a running two-game average of at least 7 or more points from the spread for inclusion. As noted above, a team with at least one distorting result of 21 or more points away from the spread, win or lose, is accompanied by an asterisk.

AFS + 

• San Diego State +24.50*
• Indiana +21.00* 
• New Mexico +21.00*
• Western Michigan +20.25*
•  Duke +19.50*
• Notre Dame +19.50*
• Delaware +19.00*
• Ole Miss +17.50*
• Texas tech +17.25*
• Michigan +17.00*
• Cincinnati +15.00
• Miami-Fla +15.00
• Virginia +13.25
• Maryland +13.00
• Old Dominion +12.50*
• Memphis +11.50
• Louisiana Tech +11.00
• ULM +11.00
• James Madison +10.50
• Utah State +10.50
• Vanderbilt +9.00
• Central Michigan +8,75
• South Carolina +8.75
• Ball State +8.50
• Boise State +8.50
• Hawaii +8.00
• Missouri State +8.00
• Rice +7.75
• Miami-Ohio +7.00

AFS – 

• Arkansas -23.00*
• West Virginia -19.50
• California -19.00*
• Illinois -19.00*
• Clemson -18.50*
• Georgia State -18.50
• UCLA -18.00*
• Appalachian State -17.75
• Boston College -17.00
• South Alabama -16.75*
• New Mexico State -13.25
• UTEP -13.25
• Sam Houston -12.75
• Arkansas State -11.00
• Army -12.00
• Florida Atlantic -11.00
• Tulane -11.00*
• North Carolina State -10.25
• Georgia Tech -9.50
• Kentucky -9.00
• Nevada -9.00
• Colorado State -8.75*
• Air Force -8.50
• Florida -8.00
• Minnesota -8.00
• SMU -8.00