Eagles vs. Commanders odds, NFC Championship expert picks: NFL playoffs best bets, where to watch, TV, stream

The road to Super Bowl LIX takes us to Lincoln Financial Field where the Philadelphia Eagles will host the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship game. For one of these NFC East rivals, they’ll have their ticket to New Orleans stamped and will head to the Super Bowl as NFC champs, while the other will be sent packing just short of reaching the big game. 

As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get sports betting picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for this playoff matchup, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, and more. Ready? Let’s jump in.

All NFL betting courtesy of SportsLine consensus.  

Which picks can you make with confidence for the NFC Championship? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.

Commanders at Eagles

Time: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fubo (try for free)
Open: Eagles -6, O/U 47.5

Pete Prisco’s Commanders vs. Eagles pick

“The Commanders are the surprise team left in final four. They got here by upsetting the top-seeded Lions on the road last week. In that game, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was special. He lit up the Lions defense. But this is a much bigger challenge.

“The Eagles, who beat the Rams last week, came on strong down the stretch on defense as they acclimated to the Vic Fangio system, which will challenge Daniels. The Eagles play a lot of zone, which might be a good thing since Daniels carves up man coverage against a blitz. He will be forced to be patient here, which will put more pressure on his offensive line. They have to block defensive tackle Jalen Carter, who is a game wrecker. 

“The Philadelphia offense will once again be keyed by running back Saquon Barkley. He ran for 2,000 yards this season and has rolled up big numbers in the playoffs. In the two games against the Commanders this season, Barkley had 296 rushing yards and four touchdowns in those games. They couldn’t stop him.

“Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is banged up with a knee injury suffered last week in the victory over the Rams, which could impact his ability to pull it on the zone reads. That could change how Washington defends Barkley.

“This game will be about Daniels and his ability to make plays against the Fangio defense. Watching Kliff Kingsbury call plays will be fun to watch. I think Daniels plays well. So well in fact I think the Commanders will pull off an upset. Daniels will become the first rookie quarterback to take his team to a Super Bowl. 

“Pick: Commanders 27, Eagles 26″

To see Prisco’s AFC Championship pick, click here.

SportsLine’s $1 million parlay

Looking to hit big during Championship Sunday? SportsLine has constructed a parlay that cashes out over $1 million for $10 bettors. The parlay includes picks from SportsLine’s proven model, which simulates every game 10,000 times and is 31-15 on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model has returned more than $10,000 for $100 bettors over the past eight seasons. We can tell you two of the legs in this parlay revolve around Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith. To see what those specific legs large and the entire parlay, go check out SportsLine. 

Will Brinson’s Commanders vs. Eagles best bet

The pick: Dyami Brown over 3.5 receptions (-130)

“Brown’s been a massive help in the postseason, stepping up and becoming the No. 2 receiver in this offense for Daniels. The fourth-year receiver out of UNC was generally regarded as kind of a gadget guy and/or solely a deep threat, with Olamide Zaccheaus really taking on the role of the second receiver behind Terry McLaurin. But over the last month or so, Brown’s been an integral part of this offense. He has four targets or more in every single game since the start of December, culminating with a blowup (revenge?) game against the Lions and, apparently, Amon-Ra St. Brown, last week when he was targeted eight times and came away with six catches for 98 yards. That built on his Wild Card Weekend performance when Brown caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and the Commanders first score of the game. The dude has turned a corner in a contract year and should be in line for another strong performance against Philly with all the attention being paid to McLaurin and the legs of his quarterback.” 

To see Brinson’s best bets for the AFC Championship, click here.

SportsLine’s Matt Severance’s Commanders vs. Eagles pick

SportsLine expert Matt Severance is a go-to source when it comes to betting Eagles games. In games revolving around Philadelphia, he is on a 23-10-1 (+1331) roll on and has made now his pick for the NFC Championship. We can tell you he’s leaning Under the total of 48, but to see his ATS pick you’ll need to go to SportsLine.

Tyler Sullivan’s Commanders vs. Eagles pick

“These two teams split the regular-season series at a game apiece, but there is a massive caveat to that. In the Week 16 matchup in Washington, Jalen Hurts went down due to injury, which thrust Kenny Picket into the fold and lowered Philadelphia’s ceiling. With Hurts back under center, I expect the Eagles to win this game and advance to the Super Bowl, but it’ll be closer than the spread suggests. All of these matchups have come down to a single possession and Jayden Daniels has largely flourished against the Eagles defense. Philly has the second-highest blitz rate in the NFL, but that plays into one of Daniels’ strengths. The rookie ranks third in EPA per play vs. the blitz and completed 10 of his 15 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles blitz back in Week 16. While Daniels will help the Commanders cover, Saquon Barkley will push Philadelphia over the top to an NFC Championship win. The Commanders continue to struggle against the run and Barkley (who rushed for 150 yards against them in Week 16) will continue to exploit it, just as he did last week against the Rams with 205 yards on the ground.”

Projected score: Eagles 27, Commanders 24
The pick: Commanders +6

To see Sullivan’s AFC Championship pick, click here.

SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein’s Commanders vs. Eagles pick

SportsLine betting expert Larry Hartstein has been a guru throughout the NFL season, and he now has his sights set on this NFC Championship between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. Hartstein has been particularly hot when it comes to betting on Commanders games, coming into this playoff matchup on an incredible 22-6 (+1499) roll. We can tell you he’s leaning Over the 47.5 point total, but to see his ATS pick you’ll need to log on to SportsLine. 

John Breech’s Commanders vs. Eagles pick

“I’m almost glad Philadelphia won in the divisional round because this means we’ll get to continue the greatest rivalry in sports: Me vs. Eagles fans.

“There’s no fan base that calls me out faster when I pick against their team than Eagles fans. For instance, my divisional round picks went up at 10:30 a.m. ET on Jan. 14 and 18 MINUTES later, an Eagles fan had already called me out for picking against Philly. 

“Honestly, Eagles fans respond so fast that I’m actually impressed. Now, Vincent makes it sound like I pick against the Eagles all the time, but that’s not exactly the case. I only picked them to lose six times in 19 games this year, and I went 0-6 with those picks. On the other hand, I actually picked them to WIN in all of their losses so maybe I’m subconsciously holding that against them.

“On the flip side, we have the Commanders, who are now my favorite team because they made me look smart. Last week, I picked them to beat the Lions and well, we all so what happened. 

“Am I already talking myself into picking the Commanders? Am I actually willing to go down in flames by picking against the Eagles again? Let’s find out, and let’s start by looking at Washington. 

“Not only are the Commanders in the NFC title game, but they’ve gotten this far with a rookie quarterback. Getting to a conference title game is hard enough, but getting to one with a rookie quarterback is almost impossible. It’d be like running a marathon in flip flops while holding a baby in your arms. The degree of difficulty is high. 

“When Jayden Daniels takes the field on Sunday, he’ll become just the sixth rookie QB in NFL history to start in a conference title game (Brock Purdy, Shaun King, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez are the others). If history is any indication, things could get ugly for Daniels against the Eagles. Not only did those five other rookies go 0-5 in their starts, but they also combined to throw nine interceptions compared to just four touchdowns. 

“Those other five rookies lost even though they all had the advantage of having something that Daniels definitely does NOT have: A great defense. 

“If the Commanders defense has struggled with one thing this year, it’s stopping the run and if you can’t stop the run, the last guy in the world you want to be facing is Saquon Barkley. The Eagles running back averaged 125.3 yards per game during the regular season, which led the NFL, and that doesn’t even include the fact that he went off for 205 yards against the Rams in the divisional round, which was the fifth-most rushing yards in a playoff game in NFL history. 

“If you’re now wondering how bad the Commanders are at stopping the run, they surrendered 137.5 yards per game on the ground, which was the third-worst number in the NFL. Since the Commanders have now won two playoff games, you’d think that the defense has gotten better at stopping the run, but nope. In their two playoff wins, the Commanders have surrendered 150 rushing yards per game. Yes, they won those games, but that’s because Daniels and the offense were able to carry them against two bad defenses. The Lions and Buccaneers both surrendered more than 340 yards per game during the regular season and Washington took advantage of that, but this week, the Commanders will be facing a brick wall in an Eagles defense that surrendered the fewest yards in the NFL in 2024. 

“When these two teams met in Week 11, the Commanders tied their lowest scoring output of the season in a 26-18 loss, and eight of those points came on a touchdown with under 30 seconds left to play. When these two teams met again in Week 15, Jalen Hurts missed the final three quarters due to a concussion, but despite that, the Eagles still almost won. Daniels threw a touchdown pass with six seconds left to win the game 36-33. 

“Barkley ran for 146 yards and two touchdowns in the first game before topping that with 150 yards and two touchdowns in the second game. I thought the Eagles were the better team in both games — again, they almost won the second game with Kenny Pickett as their QB for three quarters — and I’m not sure anything is going to change this time around. 

“At this point, I think Eagles fans would prefer if I picked against their team in this game, but the joke’s on them, because the prediction here is that the Eagles will be flying to their third Super Bowl in eight seasons. 

“And since no Eagles pick is complete without a video of the Philadelphia Symphony Orchestra performing “Fly, Eagles, Fly,” here is the Philadelphia Symphony Orchestra performing “Fly, Eagles, Fly.” That song is starting to grow on me. 

“The pick: Eagles 27-24 over Commanders”

To see Breech’s AFC Championship pick, click here.

Jordan Dajani’s Commanders vs. Eagles pick

“These two division rivals split the season series, although it’s worth mentioning Jalen Hurts missed most of Washington’s victory over Philly with a concussion. The first meeting between these two squads was a horrific offensive showing for both teams, honestly. Saquon Barkley scored two touchdowns in what was a 23-0 Eagles run that secured the 26-18 victory, but kicker Jake Elliott missed two field goal attempts and an extra point while Hurts did not look especially sharp. Daniels threw for just 191 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and his leading wide receiver had just 10 yards.

“The second meeting, a 36-33 victory for Washington, was much more interesting — even with Hurts’ absence. Barkley rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter, then just 41 yards in the final three quarters. Hurts being out obviously hurts Barkley, but could we see something similar this week if Hurts isn’t able to be as mobile due to his knee injury? Washington finished with the third-worst rush defense in the NFL this year, but it would help if Barkley was the only threat for Philly on the ground. Maybe Dan Quinn, Joe Whitt Jr. and the defense learned some lessons on how to contain the best running back in the NFL.

“I’m going to take the points in this matchup, and I’ll go ahead and call for the upset. Why? Two reasons: I feel like the Eagles offense hasn’t looked very good in the playoffs. They slept-walked through an easy victory over the Green Bay Packers, then Nick Sirianni or Kellen Moore allowed the Los Angeles Rams a shot to win their game late in the fourth quarter after deciding to roll out an injured quarterback on a bootleg for a loss of 7 yards on a second down. Hurts hasn’t passed for more than 131 yards this postseason, and A.J. Brown is more of a bookworm than All-Pro wideout these days. 

“The other reason why I’m taking Washington is because it has the better quarterback in this matchup. I won’t list all of his accomplishments, but anyone who watches football can see Daniels plays like a veteran. It’s pretty incredible. From his accuracy going downfield, comfortability/composure in the pocket, decision-making and his legs, it’s all great. He has more wins than negative plays (sack, fumble or interceptions) this postseason. He will be the sixth rookie quarterback to start a conference championship game. The previous five all had top-three scoring defenses. The Commanders rank 18th. Daniels is clearly special. Why doubt him now?”

The pick: Commanders +6
Projected score: Commanders 24-20

To see Dajani’s AFC Championship pick, click here.