Free MLB home run picks, odds for Sept. 21: Eugenio Suarez among best bets for Sunday HR player props

Despite a midseason trade from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners, Eugenio Suarez is sitting on 47 home runs for the season entering a critical matchup on Sunday with the Astros. Suarez’s career best is 49 home runs, so he has a chance to set a personal milestone and become the 35th different player in MLB history to hit 50 or more home runs in a season if he can continue his recent hot streak. He’s hammered two home runs in his last four games and has seven hits during that span, yet is priced as high as +443 in the latest MLB home run odds.

He’ll play in hitter-friendly Daikin Park tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET and is one of our top MLB HR picks for Sunday. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest DraftKings promo code to get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 25.45 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after calling Nick Kurtz (+320) to homer on Friday, and it has hit two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Sunday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Sunday, September 21:

• Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (+360)
• Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+419)
• Eugenio Suarez, Mariners (+443)
• Parlay these picks for +12384 odds at DraftKings (odds subject to change)

MLB Best Home Run Bets 9/21

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (+360, BetMGM)

This is a favorable matchup for Manzardo. He’s 3-for-4 with a HR in his career against Simeon Woods-Richardson. Manzardo has hit 23 of his 26 HRs this season in games where the opposing starter is right-handed. We set the line at +355 for Manzardo to homer, and you can also use the latest BetMGM promo code to get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet loses.  

Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+443, DraftKings)

We’re going back to Kurtz for a third day in a row with his line at +419 on DraftKings, as it’s as low as +320 on other books. Pirates‘ SP Mike Burrows has allowed 10 of his 12 HRs at home this season. While Burrows has been good against left-handed hitters, Kurtz is dominant against right-handed pitchers, and we give him the advantage here. We set the line at +300 for Kurtz to homer, and you can bet this prop at DraftKings to get $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:

Eugenio Suarez, Mariners (+419, DraftKings)

Suarez is extremely streaky. After a stretch in which he went 0-for-28 at the plate, he now has 7 hits and 3 HRs over his last 4 games played. DraftKings has a bit of an outlier line here, as all other major books have Suarez below +400. Astros’ SP Jason Alexander has an .897 OPS against him in 8 home starts with 8 home runs allowed, compared to a .599 OPS and 4 HRs allowed in 8 road starts. We set Suarez’s line at +420 to homer. You can get $300 in bonus bet if your first $5+ bet wins at FanDuel:

Where to bet MLB props on Sunday

Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Sunday: 

More MLB picks for Sunday 

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Angelo Magliocca, who is on a 79-56 roll (+1611) on MLB picks.