Harris campaign’s surge in momentum puts Sun Belt back in play

(WASHINGTON) — In Vice President Kamala Harris’ bid for the White House, her pathway to the coveted 270 electoral votes has evolved now that she is the Democratic Party’s nominee — as she can potentially fare better than President Joe Biden in regions like the Sun Belt.

Biden’s decision to leave the 2024 race last month and Harris’ ascension to the top of the ticket has injected fresh enthusiasm into the contest — and the Harris campaign is looking to capitalize on that during a tour of battleground states this week with her newly minted running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, which includes stops in the Sun Belt states of Arizona on Friday and Nevada on Saturday.

The Sun Belt — which includes states in the South and West, ranging from Florida and Georgia through the Gulf states into California — contains several 2024 battleground states that both Harris and former President Donald Trump will target in their effort to win in November.

Biden’s campaign, focused on saving democracy and the threat Trump poses in the effort, struggled to capture the energy needed to mobilize voters in the Sun Belt states he narrowly won during the 2020 election — including Arizona and Georgia, experts told ABC News. Now Harris’ campaign is working to appeal to the coveted Sun Belt voters who could help her win the White House.

Broadening Harris’ base

Republican and Democratic strategists both agree that the momentum Harris has been able to garner has paved new lines in the Sun Belt that the campaign can now realistically cross.

Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Republican consultant in Arizona, said Harris can make inroads in Arizona where Biden was not able to.

“Harris seems to have grasped the ‘I’m looking forward, they’re looking backward’ narrative and Arizona is a forward-looking state,” said Coughlin, who is now registered as a “PND” or “Party Not Designated” after leaving the party in 2017.

Lorna Romero, an Arizona GOP strategist, told ABC News that the campaign’s “forward looking” messaging is what a lot of voters are looking for in a candidate. However, she said she thinks Harris will have to do a lot more if she wants to win over Republicans in the state that Biden narrowly won in 2020 by roughly 10,000 votes.

“I think Harris really needs to separate herself from the Biden administration because what Republicans have been doing has been pointing out the failures under Biden like the border,” Romero said of Arizona, a state where the immigration and border debate — a key voter issue in 2024 — has raged.

And Harris’ campaign is working to sway some of those Republican voters. In order to win the Sun Belt states, Harris will not only have to appeal to her base, but also woo moderate and Republican voters. The campaign has launched a grassroots organizing program nationwide to attract Republicans called “Republicans for Harris.”

No matter the party, issues such as immigration and the economy are top of mind for Arizona residents, according to Coughlin. But issues such as abortion have galvanized voters on both sides of the aisle to head to the polls.

In Arizona, abortion will appear on the ballot in November after an Arizona Supreme Court decision revived an 1864 near-total abortion ban, which could potentially punish providers who provide an abortion. Before the Arizona Supreme Court decision, the state had a 15-week abortion ban in place.

Coughlin said he thinks abortion on the ballot could be a major “turnout mechanism” in the state.

Romero says these issues will make for a tough balancing act for Harris over these next few months between “alienating” swing voters and keeping progressives “happy.”

Morgan Jackson, a Democratic strategist from North Carolina, said she thinks Harris’ chances of winning over that battleground Sun Belt state will be a lot simpler.

Although Biden lost North Carolina in 2020 by some 90,000 votes, Jackson said she thinks the state’s rapidly growing population of young, college-educated adults who prioritize issues such as abortion will help to flip the state.

In 2023, Raleigh — which is home to a consortium of colleges and universities — was America’s third fastest-growing city, according to the Census bureau.

“The way you win North Carolina is you run up the score in the urban and suburban areas, and just try to limit your losses in the rural areas, and I think Kamala Harris is well positioned to do so,” Jackson said.

In Georgia, which played a crucial role in Biden’s 2020 victory after it went blue for the first time since 1992, strategist Amy Morton said she is already seeing the effects of Harris leading the party’s ticket.

“For all of our clients, we will need to revise our projections for turnout upward,” Georgia Democratic strategist Amy Morton told her team after a flood of Harris endorsements when Biden dropped out of the race. “That’s the impact Harris will have on the ticket.”

Voter enthusiasm in the Sun Belt

Harris is doing better than Biden in the Sun Belt’s swing states, according to 538’s polling average.

For example, in Arizona, Trump leads only by a half point margin — 44.8% to Harris’ 44.4%, according to 538’s polling average. Biden left the race polling at 39.5%. In Georgia, 538’s polling average shows Trump leads by a small and similar margin — 45.8% compared to 45.2% for Harris; Biden polled at 39.2% before leaving the race.

Loomis Henry, an independent voter and Arizona native, plans to attend the rally Harris and Walz are hosting in Phoenix on Friday.

“I’m completely blown away. And it’s the first time I have felt invigorated and excited about politics,” Henry said.

Although previously unfamiliar with Walz, the governor’s “Minnesota nice” persona has won him over, Henry said.

“I’m like, where’s this guy been hiding? He seems like he’s really a working-class guy and authentic. And I think that has been lacking from politics for so long,” Henry said.

Stephanie Munoz, a 35-year-old from Phoenix, who also plans to attend Friday’s rally approved of the addition to the Harris ticket, too.

“A lot of people criticize Kamala Harris for being like a prosecutor and too uptight and I feel like he brings in more of that warmth feeling, and they play off each other very well,” Munoz said.

Henry told ABC News that regardless of party, the country is ready to move on from its “divisions,” and he thinks Harris will help to ease those tensions.

“I think she just needs to be herself,” said Henry. “I think she’s likable, and I think if she just has more direct dialogue with our country, people will see this and a lot of this ugly right and left, and division — I think she can slowly thaw that out a little bit.”

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.