How Blue Jays gained an ALCS edge over Mariners before Game 1 even began

The Seattle Mariners outlasted the Detroit Tigers in an epic Game 5 of the ALDS, winning 3-2 and advancing to the ALCS for the first time since 2001. They’ll head to Toronto to face the Blue Jays in said ALCS. It starts Sunday night in Rogers Centre. Yes, that’s only one day off after a 15-inning win and, yes, there will be fallout. 

Now, before going any deeper, it needs to be said that the Mariners did nothing wrong in Game 5 of the ALDS. When you’re back is against the wall, you do anything it takes to advance to the next round and pick up the proverbial pieces once the advancement happens. It has happened now. 

The pieces are as follows: 

• Starter George Kirby went five-plus innings and threw 66 pitches. He’s unavailable until Game 3 of the ALCS.
• Logan Gilbert started Game 3 of the ALDS and was able to provide two innings of work in Game 5, throwing 34 pitches. He’s not going to be good for Game 1 of the series and the best bet is Game 4. 
• Luis Castillo, the Mariners’ Game 2 starter in the ALDS, came back in Game 5 for 1 ⅓ innings on 15 pitches. He could probably go in Game 1, but he’d be compromised.
• Righty reliever Matt Brash threw 26 pitches in two innings. It was the first time all season he got more than three outs and it marked his second-highest pitch count, after a 30-pitch outing on Sept. 17. 
• All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz went 1 ⅓ innings, throwing 25 pitches. He threw two innings and 25 pitches in Game 1 of the series, but this was a long outing. He only had six outings of at least 25 pitches in the regular season. 
• Right-hander Eduard Bazardo threw 39 pitches in his 2 ⅔ innings. It was his longest outing of the year, though he did go two innings seven times in the regular season. The pitch count was his second-highest after a 44-pitch appearance on May 12. He didn’t pitch again after that one for six days. 

Those are three of the Mariners’ four top starters and their best three relievers. All are compromised for Game 1 and maybe even Game 2 when it comes to Bazardo. 

All-Star starting pitcher Bryan Woo missed the ALDS due to a pectoral injury. There’s good news and bad news here. The good news is that Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto told reporters (Seattle Times) after Game 5 that they are expecting to have Woo on the ALCS roster. The bad news, though, is that Woo likely won’t pitch until “midway through the series.” So Games 1 and 2 are out. 

This means that the ALCS Game 1 starter for the Mariners is Bryce Miller. He had a 5.68 ERA in the regular season and gave up two runs in 4 ⅓ innings in Game 4 of the ALDS, a game in which the Mariners would eventually allow nine runs. He’ll be on short rest, but there really isn’t much other choice. The Mariners will be forced to lean on him and likely the relievers other than Bazardo, while Brash and Muñoz might not be at full strength. 

It certainly isn’t ideal, but the Mariners have moved on, and that’s the most important headline. 

Still, it’s worth noting that the Blue Jays have a distinct advantage in Game 1 of the ALCS because the Mariners had to get through 15 innings in Game 5 of the previous round.