Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry: What a loss for the ‘Problem Child’ could mean for the future Mike Tyson fight

Every step of Jake Paul’s boxing career has taken place under a microscope. From thumping influencers, basketball players, former mixed martial artists to his mixed results against “real boxers,” every business decision and punch thrown by Paul comes with a unique degree of attention.

Even understanding that, Paul’s 2024 campaign is uniquely interesting. Paul was originally set to fight Mike Tyson, a man more than 30 years his senior, in a controversial fight on July 20 that was bound to do huge business, especially considering it would take place on Netflix. That fight was postponed to Nov. 15 after Tyson suffered what his camp called an “ulcer flare up” that left the fighter needing medical attention during a flight.

Rather than spend more time in training camp and wait for Tyson, Paul sought a way to keep his July 20 date. This eventually led to Paul settling on Mike Perry, the former UFC washout who has since become the breakout star of the bare-knuckle fighting world.

The immediate reaction to Paul’s decision was for many to believe he was making a mistake, fighting an ultra-aggressive brawler who has made a career of busting up faces in uniquely violent ways. After all, couldn’t a loss to Perry take the lucrative fight with Tyson off the table entirely? Paul told DAZN that he’s aware of that risk.

In reality, it’s entirely unknown if Paul losing to Perry would actually take the Tyson fight off the table. For all the reasons the fight probably shouldn’t happen, from Tyson’s age to his inactivity over the past two decades, there are so many motives for the fight to likely chug along.

Netflix found the live sporting event they wanted, with two big names throwing punches in a fight that screams “I might hate it, but I have to see what happens.” The fight isn’t a pay-per-view — it will be available for anyone with a Netflix subscription, which is more than a quarter of a billion accounts worldwide.

AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas would likely be packed for Paul vs. Tyson whether Paul wins or loses against Perry. The name value and curiosity factor is simply too high and Tyson is a beloved figure while Paul’s entire career has been fueled in part by audiences wanting to see him lose.

There’s simply too much money to be made for all involved parties to think Paul losing to Perry would sink a fight with Tyson.

That could change if Perry knocks Paul out, however. As mentioned, many fans tune into Paul fights hoping to see him lose. His lone career loss came via a razor-thin split decision against Tommy Fury in a fight where Paul scored the fight’s lone knockdown. It was satisfying for Paul’s critics to see him lose but wasn’t definitive enough. It didn’t overwrite the images of Paul’s lopsided wins over Nate Robinson, Tyron Woodley, Nate Diaz and others, in other words.

The idea of Paul vs. Tyson is fueled by the “what if?” of Paul facing one of the most devastating punchers in boxing history. Even after Tyson turned 58 a few weeks ago, many feel he has enough power to finally deliver the devastating knockout they feel Paul has coming.

Some of that steam would be released if Perry puts Paul down for the count.

Paul’s career has been carefully managed, however, and there are likely reasons his camp sees Perry as a good opponent for Saturday.

Perry was somewhat undersized in the 170-pound UFC welterweight division and has been competing in Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship between 175 and 185 pounds. The Paul fight is scheduled to take place in boxing’s 200-pound cruiserweight division, with Paul having bulked up to well over 200 pounds in anticipation of his fight with Tyson. This means Paul will come into the fight with a three-inch height advantage as well as an edge in weight and strength.

For all of the talk of Perry’s devastating striking, the final 10 fights of his MMA career came without Perry scoring a stoppage (and with a 3-7 record). Perry has three straight TKO wins in BKFC, but those have largely been the product of his bare-knuckle punches causing significant facial damage. In his most recent fight, Perry dropped 40-year-old Thiago Alves near the one-minute mark of the opening round and while Alves was able to beat the count, the fight was waived off as the referee didn’t deem him fit to continue.

Boxing gloves and different rulesets will make it harder for Perry to land punches while also rendering those punches less impactful than in bare-knuckle or MMA. Against a significantly larger man with more experience training for “pure boxing,” Perry’s power may play far less of a role than many think.

While a loss certainly is a possibility, the kind of loss it would likely take to get the Tyson fight off the table for Paul doesn’t feel entirely plausible.

That said, the only certain path to the biggest and most lucrative fight of Paul’s career is simple: just get the win.