Mariners vs. Blue Jays odds, picks: Best bets for ALCS Game 1 with Toronto poised for strong offensive showing

Can you believe that we’re sitting right now at the point in the baseball season that came immediately after the regular season from 1969-1993? We’ve already run through a gauntlet of playoff games. Two teams in the LCS faced elimination in the divisional round. One of the four teams had to play a Wild Card Series. Man. In terms of rounds, we’re halfway done, but the first round was a three-game series and the second round was a five-game series. What’s left are seven-game series for the LCS and World Series. 

Let’s start it off on the right foot here in Best Bets with some good action on Sunday’s Game 1 of the Mariners-Blue Jays series. Lines courtesy of BetMGM today.

The pitching matchup is Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays against Bryce Miller of the Mariners. 

Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (+110)

The morning after the Mariners’ 15-inning marathon win in Game 5 of the ALDS, I pointed out how they’re behind the eight ball here with their pitching situation for Game 1. It’s temporary, but they’ll feel it Sunday. The Blue Jays absolutely rake at home, too. They were third in the majors during the regular season in home OPS and runs scored at home. Then they scored 10 runs against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS and 13 in Game 2 — in a game started by Max Fried. 

Bryce Miller isn’t Max Fried. The Mariners starting pitcher for Game 1 of this series had a 5.68 ERA in the regular season. The Blue Jays saw him on May 11 and scored seven runs on eight hits in five innings. And that was in T-Mobile Park, the most pitcher-friendly yard in baseball. 

This could get ugly early. At least we can make some money off of it.

Daulton Varsho over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100)

Did you know that Varsho hit 20 home runs in only 71 games in the regular season? Do the math! We’re talking about a guy hitting bombs at a 40+ homer pace. In the two home games in the ALDS, he went 6 for 9 with three doubles and two home runs. What’s more, he hits left-handed and Miller allowed a .530 slugging percentage to lefties this season. Varsho hits in the middle of the Blue Jays’ powerful lineup, so he’ll very likely have plenty of RBI opportunities, too. 

BONUS: First inning run (+105)

I think we’ve established my thoughts on the Blue Jays’ offense against Miller by now. He has a tall order in the first inning with George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the top three. 

Keep in mind, though, that the Mariners have a very formidable offense. It’s actually underrated due to how much T-Mobile Park suppresses their overall numbers. Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh and his 60 homers, and Julio Rodríguez is an amazing top three in the lineup and that’s who Kevin Gausman has to deal with in the first inning. 

This isn’t prime Gausman anymore. He had a hot stretch toward the end of the season, but in his last two starts — when the Jays were trying to nail down the AL East title — he had a 7.71 ERA. In Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, he was pretty good, but I still think he’s vulnerable here against a good offense. 

Someone is getting nailed with a run in the first here. Maybe Miller. Maybe Gausman. Maybe both.