Mets-Braves doubleheader: Starting pitchers, clinch scenarios and everything to know about NL wild-card race

The Major League Baseball regular season was supposed to conclude Sunday, Sept. 29, with a day off before the playoffs start on Tuesday, Oct. 1. Instead, there will be a doubleheader in Atlanta between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets that will determine the final two spots in the 2024 MLB playoff bracket. 

The first game is set for 1:10 p.m. ET with the second game starting 40 minutes later. The Arizona Diamondbacks still have a chance to make the postseason, but they’ll be rooting for a sweep on Monday.

Here’s what else you need to know about the twin bill. 

Hurricane Helene is to blame

The Mets were originally scheduled to play three games in Atlanta last Tuesday through Thursday. The inclement weather that came to the Atlanta area due to Hurricane Helene caused the Wednesday and Thursday games to be postponed. Consider this Monday bout an emergency doubleheader. 

Why it matters and how it affects the Diamondbacks

Right now, the Mets and Braves are knotted up at 88-72 in the standings. The Diamondbacks are 89-73. Two of these three teams will make the playoffs as five and six seeds, respectively. The D-backs had a losing record this season against both the Mets and Braves, so they lose the tiebreakers. 

Here are the scenarios heading into Monday: 

• The Mets make the playoffs by either splitting or sweeping the doubleheader.
• The Braves make the playoffs by either splitting or sweeping the doubleheader. 
• The Diamondbacks make the playoffs if either the Mets or Braves sweep the doubleheader. 

It sure seems like the D-backs are in a tough spot here. Whichever team wins the first game of the doubleheader will have clinched a playoff spot and then very likely rests its most important players. The most probable result, therefore, is a split. Still, a sweep could well happen and that would send the D-backs back to the playoffs while the losing team between the Mets and Braves goes home for a long winter. 

Interestingly, the Braves are either going to be the five seed or miss the playoffs. If they split the series, they’ll have the tiebreaker over the Mets for the five. The Mets would be the five seed with a sweep, the six with a split or they’d miss the playoffs by losing both games. The Diamondbacks can only be the six seed or miss the playoffs.

Remember how I said the winning team of the first game will dial it back for Game 2? Just look at the pitching plans as an illustration of this … 

The Mets will start Megill and (maybe) Severino

The Mets will start Tylor Megill the first game and Luis Severino will start the second game. If they win Game 1, they’ll save Severino for the Wild Card Series. 

Megill, 29, is 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 83 strikeouts in 72 1/3 innings this season. He spent most of July in the minors, but has been very good since coming back to the bigs, albeit without working overly deep into games. In his last six outings, he has a 1.98 ERA in 27 1/3 innings.

“We know need one,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters Tuesday. “Megill’s thrown the ball well. If we don’t get it done in Game 1, we’ve got Sevy. We just went through a lot of scenarios and thought it was best to go with Megill. He’s going to give us a chance to win a baseball game, and then we go from there.”

Severino is 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 182 innings.

The Braves will start Schwellenbach and (maybe) Sale

Similar to how the Mets are lining up their pitching, the Braves plan to start rookie Spencer Schwellenbach in the first game and Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale in Game 2, if they need him. If they win Game 1, they’ll save Sale for the Wild Card Series, per MLB.com. 

Schwellenbach, 24, is 8-7 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 122 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings this season. He made his MLB debut on May 29 and has 20 MLB starts under his belt. 

Sale is 18-3 with a 2.38 ERA. He leads the majors in ERA and the NL in strikeouts. The Braves would sure love to win the first game and save their ace for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. The Mets would also love to not face him.

Game 1 lineups

Here are the lineups for the first game. 

Mets

1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Jose Iglesias, 2B
3. Mark Vientos, 3B
4. Brandon Nimmo, LF
5. Pete Alonso, 1B
6. J.D. Martinez, DH
7. Tyrone Taylor, RF
8. Francisco Alvarez, C
9. Harrison Bader, CF

Braves

1. Michael Harris II, CF
2. Ozzie Albies, 2B
3. Marcell Ozuna, DH
4. Matt Olson, 1B
5. Jorge Soler, RF
6. Ramón Laureano, LF
7. Travis d’Arnaud, C
8. Gio Urshela, 3B
9. Orlando Arcia, SS