National League wild card odds: Mets clinging to playoff berth as Giants, Reds look for big September surges

The National League wild card race has gotten mighty interesting in the last week. After the Mets won in Cincinnati last Friday, they were tied for the Padres for the second wild card spot with the Giants four games back, Diamondbacks 5 ½ games out and Reds six back. 

Here’s how quickly things can turn in baseball: since Friday, the Mets have lost five straight games. The Reds have won four of five. And, hoo boy, do we have a race now …

The Cubs are seven games ahead of the Mets and seem safely in. The Padres are three games ahead of the Mets for the second spot, so let’s focus on the third berth while acknowledging that San Diego is in no way out of the woods here. 

Playoff picture headed into Thursday’s slate: 

• Mets, 76-70
• Reds 74-72, 2 games back
• Giants 74-72, 2 GB
• Diamondbacks, 73-74, 3 ½ GB

Now let’s quicky run through each team with their odds to make the playoffs, courtesy of DraftKings.

Mets (-310)

They’ve been maddeningly inconsistent all year, so why would it be any different this month? The five-game losing streak makes me think a winning streak is right around the corner, but it isn’t as easy as just saying it out loud. Remember, they had a stretch from July 28-Aug. 15 where they went 2-14.

The good news for the Mets is, after Thursday’s game in Philadelphia, they come home. The bad news is they’ll have to deal with the streaking Rangers and then the Padres, who are equally as desperate right now for wins. They should get a reprieve in playing the Nationals for three after that, but then they head to Wrigley for three games against a good Cubs team before finishing in Miami. The last time the Mets saw the Marlins they lost three of four.

The Mets still, obviously, have a leg up here with the two-game lead and the odds reflect that. They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Giants, but the Reds won the season series over the Mets. That could loom large. I still think you have to lean toward the Mets here in terms of a prediction or a wager, but they have their hands full right now through their own doing. 

Reds (+475)

The Reds looked buried after that Friday loss to the Mets, but they bounced back to take the next two and then went into San Diego and took two of three there from the Padres. That’s good stuff. The Reds’ road trip continues with a trip to Sacramento and then St. Louis before their final homestand. The trips to face the A’s and Cardinals are workable but not easy. The Reds need to keep winning series. 

When they return home, they’ll get the Cubs for four games before the Pirates for three before finishing with three games in Milwaukee where the Brewers will have nothing to play for. 

It’s always an unfortunate situation to need help, but the Reds are done playing the Mets. They need to keep winning games and then hope the Mets lose. Again, as reflected in the odds, the Reds have the best chance to topple the Mets here.

Giants (+700)

What has happened here is absurd. From June 13-Aug. 22, the Giants were one of the worst teams in baseball. They went 20-39 in there. Since then, they’ve gone 13-4 and are making things exciting. The offense has been outstanding. The Giants are hitting .297/.358/.512 with 6.94 runs per game in these last 17. As was the hope back when the Giants made the big trade, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman and Willy Adames have powered up and are leading the way, having combined for 17 home runs and 47 RBI in these last 17 games. 

It’s probably too little, too late, but there’s a small opening here. 

The schedule is difficult. The Giants host the Dodgers — whose offense appears to have just awakened — for three games this weekend. Then it’s a road trip to Arizona and Dodger Stadium (for four). The Giants close the season with the Cardinals and Rockies at home. That last homestand is very manageable, but how the Giants play before that will likely have the biggest impact on their fate.

The Mets have the tiebreaker over the Giants. The Reds and Giants finished 3-3 in head-to-head games this season and that means there are far too many machinations to work through in determining who will finish with the tiebreaker at the end of the season (the second tiebreaker is intradivision record and both teams have a ton of division games left). 

It is a longshot, but it is certainly not out of the question for the Giants to make this miracle playoff run come to fruition.

Diamondbacks (+2000)

To make up more than three games in just more than two weeks is a tall enough order, but the D-backs need to jump over the Reds and Giants in the process. I just can’t see that happening, so we don’t need to spend more time on them. It is admirable, however, how hard this team has fought despite some major injuries and then selling off key pieces before the trade deadline.